Chris Carson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2021

Chris Carson missed 5 games in the middle of the Seahawks’ regular season with a foot injury, but that didn’t stop him from having a productive season overall. Carson is the bell cow back for Seattle, but since he plays on the west coast no one ever hears much about him. We hear about Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf all the time, but we hardly hear about the engine that makes the car run. Seattle has been trying to establish the run for years and Carson is a big reason why. Carson is fast, powerful, and dynamic in the open field. If Carson can stay healthy for the 2021 season, then we can see Seattle own the very tough NFC West. 

2020 Recap

Rush YDSRush TDSRecRec YDSRec TDSFPTSFPPG
6815372874187.815.7

Carson had a sneakily good season in 2020. He started off the year hot as he recorded 429 total yards, 6 total touchdowns, and 89.4 fantasy points over a 5 game stretch. He then cooled off for the next 7 games because he suffered a foot injury in the middle of the season in a game against the Cardinals. Carson was great in both the running and passing game as he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and 7.8 yards per reception. Carson had a bulk of the workload, which might have contributed to his injury, but that workload also helped him achieve fantasy excellence. He will look to have another underappreciated year in 2021. 

2021 Projections

Rush YDSRush TDSRecRec YDSRec TDSFPTSFPPG
1020.77.131.3238.72.2256.715.1

Assuming he makes it through all 17 regular-season games, Carson should have another great season. As said before, Carson is their do-it-all back for the Seahawks. He runs the ball very hard between the tackles and can make people miss in spaces when he is catching a check-down or screen pass. He can stiff-arm defenders into the ground with his huge muscles or he can hurdle over defenders with his agility. Seattle likes to feed Carson the ball to take some of the pressure off of star quarterback Russell Wilson and that’s a good decision because Carson is one of the best running backs in the league. Carson is going to have another solid season for any fantasy owners that are paying attention. 

Crazy Chris Carson Hurdle

ADP & Auction Value 

ADP: 33, Rounds 2-3, RB19

Auction Value: $27

Right now, the draft experts have Carson ranked as one of the best RB2 players. He is far from borderline RB1 players like Cam Akers and Aaron Jones but matches up closer with guys like David Montgomery and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Carson is probably the best option out of the RB2 category because he gets the best of both worlds. He plays on a team that wants to establish the run, like Montgomery on the Bears, while also getting touches in the passing attack, like Edwards-Helaire on the Cheifs. Carson has received double-digit touches in 11 out of the 12 games he played, so the opportunity is certainly there. And combined with his high touchdown ratio, 9 in 12 games, Carson should have another solid and productive year. 

Floor 

Carson’s floor depends on how healthy he is. Seattle likes to give him the ball more than any other back on their roster, so the touches aren’t the problem. The problem lies in the fact that Carson has missed multiple games with a foot sprain and a hip fracture. It might be obvious that those two body parts are important for a running back, but what’s not obvious is that injuries to those body parts could cause injuries to other areas of your body like your knees and ankles. Another issue is if Seattle would choose a more passing-based approach on offense and to “Let Russ cook” with all of their great players at receivers instead of running the ball. If Carson misses games due to injuries and the Seahawks choose to pass the ball more, we could see Carson fall to the waiver wire very quickly. 

Ceiling 

His ceiling also depends on if he’s healthy. Cause when healthy, Carson is pretty darn good at football. Carson is one of the hardest guys to tackle in the open field. He’s got lightning-quick feet, a great burst of speed, strength like a grizzly bear, and he can hurdle anything or anyone. He also gets the touches to support his high-end talent as shown by his whopping 760 touches since becoming the full-time starter in 2018. Carson’s 2020 season might have been cut short by injury, but if he plays the full 17 game slate in 2021, then we could see Carson have a career year. 

Seattle Seahawks Offense

Seattle SeahawksThe “Let Russ Cook” movement was huge for the Seattle Seahawks at the beginning of the season. But this always happens to the Seahawks. Russell Wilson always looks like an MVP candidate for the first 7 weeks of the season and then the hype dies down as other guys get their groove and play better. But let’s not forget that this offense is really really good as the Seahawks from scored the 8th most points and the 5th most red-zone touchdowns in the NFL last season. And with guys like Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson on your roster, how could you not score? This team was very balanced as they in the middle of the pack for both rushing and passing attempts. However, their glaring weakness for the past several years has been their offensive line. They did trade for tackle Gabe Jackson from the Raiders and resign guard Jordan Simmons, but will these moves be enough to keep Wilson from running for his life this season? Find out on this season of NFL 2021.  

Strength of Schedule 

Having that home playoff game really does screw you over for next season as the Seahawks have the 11th hardest schedule in the NFL this upcoming season. Not only do they have to get through that gauntlet that is the NFC West, but they also have to play the AFC South, NFC North, Washington Football Team, Steelers, and Saints. This is a brutally hard schedule for Seattle just because every team in their division could be a playoff team. The Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals are all legitimate candidates for the playoffs, so playing those teams twice a year is going to be a daunting task. Then on top of that, the Seahawks also have to play other good teams like the Packers, Vikings, Titans, Colts, Steelers, and Saints. Listen to this 7-week schedule that the Seahawks have to play. They play the Colts, Titans, Vikings, 49ers, Rams, Steelers, and Saints in their first seven weeks without a break. All of those teams could be playoff teams and I don’t see how Seattle escapes all that without 2 or 3 losses, and it could be even higher than that. Seattle is a top team in the NFC too, it’s just going to be very difficult for them to host another playoff game with the schedule they have.

Chris primarily bets on the NFL but has also won betting on the NBA, CBB, and CFB. His friends call him "The Trap Game Mastermind" for his ability to identify trap games. Loves underdogs, overs, and betting against fraudulent teams.

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