Chris Godwin Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

For those who were high on Chris Godwin last year, then you have something to be proud of and hopefully a fantasy championship to go with it.  has had some injury concerns to start his career, but for the most part he was healthy in 2019. Overall the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense was built for fantasy production through the air, and they supported two top ten fantasy wideouts, who both missed a combined five games together. A lot has changed over the span of a few months. It will not be Jameis Winston throwing to Chris Godwin and company, as it will be Tom Brady. If you saw that coming, I don’t believe you. Not much is changing for the outcomes of Godwin, or even Evans, as both project for big years and this offense in general is already looking once again to be an easy one to target.

2019 Recap

RECREC YDSREC TDFANTASY POINTSFPPG
861,3339188.113.4

chris godwinThe 2019 season was a breakout one for Chris Godwin, who finished second in PPR scoring despite missing two games. It was really a good spot overall for Buccaneers wide receivers because Jameis Winston force fed the ball to them, and they were constantly involved in shootouts. Godwin saw 119 targets in those 14 games, posting 1,333 yards and nine total touchdowns. He averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game, only his teammate and Michael Thomas averaged over 12. Godwin still came second to Mike Evans in red zone targets, but not by much. He caught more than him despite having four less targets and they also finished with the same amount of touchdowns. Godwin crushed on the road last season averaging 109 yards a game and had seven touchdowns in eight games. He also dominated his own division, averaging 125.6 yards per game and had six touchdowns in five games.

2020 Projections

RECREC YDSREC TDFANTASY POINTSFPPG
80.41,2698.2256.816.1

With the quarterback change, Chris Godwin projects for much more of the same, which is eight touchdowns and 1,250 receiving yards. While everything went great for big production from both, I love the Tom Brady addition as an accurate arm that can still throw the ball is going to be big. I also don’t expect this secondary to be much better, which means we should get more shootout numbers from this team. Godwin projects a bit lower in fantasy points than a Jones or Hill, but that upside is there and we will be drafting him a bit higher than last season.

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Late First / Early 2nd

Auction Price: $43

Chris Godwin is going early second round in most cases, but could creep into the end of the first depending on how badly someone wants him. With Mike Evans floating around a similar ADP and the addition of Tom Brady this is all adding to Godwin’s stock which was already high coming off of a breakout year. Overall Godwin projects for big numbers again, and is in a similar range of outcomes with the receivers going in this range. I will be buying back into him even at a higher ADP and auction value.

Floor

We have only really seen a year and a half worth of viable games from Chris Godwin, and of course the breakout was last year. He still had a 59-842-7 line in 2018 where he came on late in the season. Godwin still is a 1,000 yard guy, although his floor is closer to that mark in comparison to the 1,300 he  posted last year. I do believe his touchdown production is going to be relatively safe, as I would see him around 7-8 touchdowns as a base. This offense is going to score a ton of points, and his yardage might be the only thing that takes a slight hit.

Ceiling

I don’t believe he tops his yards last season, but 12-13 touchdowns is where his projected ceiling is for touchdowns. Godwin has an excellent range of outcomes including his floor, but an 1,200 yard season with 12 touchdowns would be another monster year for the fourth year player. If this defense gets better, then maybe we see less shootouts, but the secondary is still looking iffy and this division still has plenty of firepower.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense

There was a lot of factors for why the Buccaneers were a top fantasy offense last season. The defense was bad allowing 28 points per game, and it created a ton of shootouts and garbage time games for the Bucs. They averaged 28.6 points per game themselves, and 3.4 touchdowns per game which was fourth in the league. They threw at the 7th highest rate, and even if that drops a bit, this Buccaneers offense still should be getting plenty of looks to Godwin and Evans. The addition of Tom Brady is going to give a more accurate passer. The worry about Brady’s arm strength on deep throws is a bit overblown. He still had plenty of zip, and we didn’t see it on display in New England much because those weapons were not built for that.

Strength Of Schedule

Tampa Bay BuccaneersChris Godwin dominated the division last season and I believe that will be the case again. In what should be higher scoring games against some secondaries that will have to deal with both him and Evans is going to make things tough. Carolina is the matchup wide receivers should enjoy all season long. Outside of that, the Buccaneers will have some easy games on their schedule like Detroit, Las Vegas, and the New York Giants. All three secondaries struggled in 2019 and should struggle again in 2020. If Minnesota doesn’t adjust their defensive needs, then this could be another matchup that is easy for Godwin. Overall dealing with both is already going to be a mismatch against any secondary, especially if O.J. Howard gets involved. So those tougher matchups against Green Bay, Kansas City, Denver, and Chicago might not be as bad for Godwin.

2020 Fantasy Football Player Outlooks
  
Jason has been playing fantasy football for 20 years, starting back when Marshall Faulk was the top fantasy pick. He is well versed in various fantasy formats, from dynasty to super-flex. Jason not only enjoys playing, but helping others further their game.

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