Cooper Kupp Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Cooper KuppWhile the Rams struggled in 2019, Cooper Kupp did anything but struggle. The third-year wide receiver from Eastern Washington had a career year with 94 receptions for 1161 yards and 10 touchdowns. His 1000 yard season solidified himself as the number one receiver amongst Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods. With Brandin Cooks being traded during the offseason, a once crowded wide-receiver core has become thin, giving Kupp plenty of opportunities to replicate his career year.

2019 Recap

RECREC YDSREC TDSFPTSFPPG
94 116110 270.516.9

Cooper Kupp had a career year in 2019. What’s more impressive is that this career year came off of ACL surgery in 2018. This type of year can only attest to Kupp’s work ethic and perseverance. Nonetheless, Kupp ended the season with 91 receptions for 1087 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns. Kupp earned a total of 241 fantasy points and 15.5 fantasy points per game.

2020 Projections

REC REC YDS REC TDSFPTSFPPG
911087724115.5

Cooper Kupp is projected to have a similar season to 2019, with 91 receptions for 1087 yards and seven touchdowns. The loss of big-play speedster Brandin Cooks, and an offseason for Jared Goff to improve will provide Kupp with the tools to reach his 2019 numbers. Also, another year of developing sharper routes could make the wide-receiver an unstoppable threat on all three route levels.

Kupp is surrounded by an offensive-minded head coach in Sean McVay and an offensive coordinator known for his experience coaching quarterbacks. It is safe to say that this coaching staff will have an impact on making Kupp’s life easier. Also, Robert Woods, a top-20 wide receiver, is still on the roster. While some may argue that Woods will take receptions and yards away from Kupp, I believe the two will effectively take the target away from each other. It will be tough to double-team either receiver in 12-man personnel on deep routes so I am confident the presence of each wide receiver will benefit the other. Barring a major injury, I do not see a scenario in which the receiver will struggle to get targets and touchdowns.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 25.6 WR 10
Auction Value: $24

Cooper Kupp’s excellent comeback season resulted in an average draft position of 25.6, top-10 fantasy receiver status, and an auction value of $24. Kupp will excel in both standard leagues given his ten touchdown receptions, high reception volume, and steady 12 yds per game. This is the number one receiver that should be covered at this ADP and auction value. Look for Kupp to be Goff’s go-to receiver next season.

Floor

While his stats in 2018 were impacted by a season-ending ACL injury, Kupp has continuously improved over the course of his career. Barring serious injury, I expect Kupp to at least match his production of 2019. Further, Kupp is no longer hindered by a crowded receiving core. Also, while Jared Goff regressed in 2019, he is still a young quarterback with potential. With Goff having a great relationship with the receiver, Kupp should at least put up 60 receptions for 900 yards.

Ceiling

I am not sure if we have seen Cooper Kupp at his best just yet. He is entering his fourth year only having played two complete seasons, his rookie and third year. With the departure of Brandin Cooks, Kupp should have more targets and opportunities to make plays. Because of this, Kupp’s ceiling should be 100+ rec and 1300+ receiving yards. This would more than justify drafting the receiver in the second round. I don’t project Kupp as a first-round pick, but his ceiling could lead him to produce that kind of value.

Rams Offense

Over the past three years, the Rams found success under an 11-personnel with three-wide receivers, one running back and one-tight end. However, they mightily struggled under this personnel in 2019. Towards the end of the season, McVay improved the offense by switching to a 12 man personnel with two receivers and two tight ends. Given this unit’s success, the team got rid of Brandin Cooks. I could see the Rams continuing with this personnel, which some speculate could impact Cooper Kupp. Ram’s General Manager Les has openly stated that he wants the Rams to get back to being a run-first team. However, I think the GM and the team are simply looking for more balance to take to the pressure off of Jared Goff. The Rams will not abandon the passing game as some suggest, and I believe this will insulate Cooper Kupp from losing targets.

The Ram’s offensive line looks the same after their 2019 struggles. As much as this unit struggled in 2019, Cooper Kupp was still able to put up 94 receptions for 1161 yards and 10 touchdowns. I don’t see the offensive line having too much of an impact on Goff’s ability to get Kupp the ball if last year was an accurate sample.

The Rams revitalized their coaching staff, hiring three new coordinators. Kevin O’Connell took over as the offensive coordinator, a proven quarterbacks coach for Jared Goff. If he can improve Jared Goff’s play in 2020, Cooper Kupp should reap the rewards.

Rams 2020 Schedule

Cooper Kupp’s 2019 numbers show that he dominated against poor pass defenses and struggled against the most elite defenses. In two games against the 49ers and Ravens, Kupp only managed to achieve 17 and 31 yards, respectively. However, against the Bengals, Cardinals, and Buccaneers, Kupp gained 220, 99, and 117 yards, respectively.

This upcoming season, the Rams will play tough pass defenses including the Bills, Patriots, and division rival 49ers twice. If the results are similar to last year, Kupp should be expected to struggle in these games. However, the Rams have the luxury of playing the Giants, Redskins, Buccaneers, and Cowboys, all of whom are expected to have weak secondaries. Given the mix of weak and strong competition, I fully expect Kupp to produce similar numbers if healthy.

2020 Fantasy Football Player Outlooks
  
Miles has participated in fantasy football and baseball for nearly 7 years with an appreciation for the level of fan engagement it brings to the game. In his free time, Miles is an avid runner who also enjoys poker, cooking, and watching movies.

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