D.K. Metcalf Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2021

D.K. Metcalf was the eighth wide receiver off the board in 2019. Now he’s an All-Pro wide receiver after he had 83 catches for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Catching passes from Russell Wilson will always be helpful for a wide receiver, but Metcalf has proven he’s one of the most talented pass-catchers in the league and a superb athlete. His 100-meter dash time during the USA Track and Field Golden Games would have almost qualified him for the Olympic Trials and he’s one of the fastest players in the NFL. As we get ready for Metcalf’s third pro season, he’s one of the best wideouts in the league.

2020 Recap 

RECSREC YDSREC TDSFPTSFPPG
831,3031014.4229.8

In his second professional season, D.K. Metcalf scored 229.8 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring which made him the WR7 in that scoring format. Metcalf went over 100 yards in five of his sixteen games and went over 90 yards in seven of his first eight games. Seattle went with more of a run-heavy approach down the stretch of the season, but that hurt their offense and everyone hopes to see the team pass the ball more this season. Metcalf is one of the most athletic receivers in the league and he maintained an elite 15.7 YPR despite seeing much more volume last season.

2021 Projection 

RECSREC YDSREC TDSFPTSFPPG
91.41,425.710248.314.6

Last season, D.K. Metcalf proved that his elite efficiency could continue with greater volume and I see him having a very similar season in 2021. Not much has changed in Seattle and if anything I expect new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to boost this offense’s productivity. Metcalf is still only 23 years old and should only continue to improve as a talent in the NFL. I currently have him ranked as my WR6 in half-PPR scoring for this season, but the upside for a top-3 season is absolutely there.

ADP & Auction Value 

ADP: 20, Round 2, WR6

Auction Value: $28

D.K. Metcalf is currently being drafted as the sixth wide receiver off the board which is exactly where I have him in my projections. Metcalf is currently being drafted just ahead of J.K. Dobbins, A.J. Brown, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Justin Jefferson, and I would certainly value Metcalf ahead of those guys. With his dynamic receiving ability and clear WR1 upside, he’s an easy second-round selection.

Floor

Last season, Metcalf passed former Seahawks legend Steve Largent for the franchise record in receiving yards in a single season with 1,303. There are very few cornerbacks who can guard him on the outside and despite a somewhat limited route tree, he’s been able to produce some great fantasy value so far in his career. Metcalf is as good of a bet as there is for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in the league should he be able to stay healthy, and that makes him a top-ten wide receiver as an absolute baseline.

Ceiling 

New Seahawks’ offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is expected to push D.K. Metcalf in new ways and Metcalf said he’s “excited to get to work with him and get to hone in on those other skills” including “different kinds of routes”. If Metcalf is able to expand his somewhat limited route tree, the sky is the limit for a player who is as good as it gets with the ball in his hands. Metcalf has the ability to finish as the WR1 overall in fantasy this season and his electric ceiling is very enticing in the second round of drafts.

Seattle Seahawks Offense 

Seattle SeahawksThe Seahawks scored 28.7 points per game last season, the 8th-most in the NFL, but they’ll replace former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who is now the passing game coordinator, and quarterbacks coach for the Jaguars. As the new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron should bring in some different approaches and should have a knack for the unexpected as he’ll try new approaches like Sean McVay who he worked under in Los Angeles. Russell Wilson remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and there are few quarterbacks who I’d rather have throwing the ball to my wide receiver in fantasy than Wilson. He threw for a career-high 40 touchdowns last season. Tyler Lockett is still a dynamic pass-catcher and he has 1,000+ yards in back-to-back seasons, but this is quickly becoming Metcalf’s offense. Rookie D’Wayne Eskridge and veteran free-agent pickup tight end Gerald Everett are the new additions to the passing game. Chris Carson will still be involved on the ground with Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, and DeeJay Dallas spelling him. Seattle’s offensive line still leaves a bit to be desired and it led to some Russell Wilson trade rumors this offseason. However, this should still be one of the better offenses in the NFL.

Strength of Schedule  

One major concern for D.K. Metcalf this season will be the Seahawks’ schedule which pits them against a group of teams that allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL last year. Their division figures to be particularly challenging, especially with the Rams who allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs last year. Metcalf averaged just 4 catches for 43.5 yards against the Rams last year. The Cardinals and 49ers were above-average against WRs last year as well, and they should be much improved with their offseason moves. Seattle also has to play the NFC North which features the Packers (4th) and Bears (8th), two of the better defenses against wide receivers in fantasy last year, although the Vikings (27th) and Lions (31st) will be more bearable. The Seahawks also face the AFC South which is home to the Colts (17th), Jaguars (21st), Texans (26th), and Titans (30th), four very beatable defenses. Rounding out the Seahawks’ schedule are Washington (2nd), one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Steelers (10th), who have an elite front seven, and the Saints (18th), a defense who can be beaten. Overall, this schedule has its ups and downs but Metcalf is such an elite talent that the normal matchup rules don’t apply to him.

Bottom Line

D.K. Metcalf has impressed mightily so far in his time in the NFL, and the Ole Miss could be set for even better production in his third professional season as he continues to develop his game. He’s the top pass-catcher for Russell Wilson, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, even with Tyler Lockett on the team, and Metcalf’s elite efficiency means he’s going to be a threat to lead the league in receiving yards with a slight uptick in targets. He’s one of the biggest locks in the league to push for double-digit touchdowns and he’s a top-five WR with the upside to be the best overall player at the position for fantasy this season.

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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