Dak Prescott Fantasy Football Value & Outlook 2020

Last season, Dak Prescott was one of the best QBs in fantasy football. For the first time in his NFL career, he was able to throw for 4,000+ passing yards during a single season. Furthermore, Prescott had career highs in fantasy points and passing TDs. Nevertheless, he was unable to receive a contract extension from the Dallas Cowboys. Instead, Jerry Jones opted to place a franchise tag on Dak worth approximately $28.7 million. Barring a potential extension this off-season, Dak will need to have another productive season to guarantee a blockbuster contract.

2019 Recap

Pass YardsPass TDsInterceptionsRush YardsRush TDsFan. Pts.Fan. Pts./Game
490230132773337.821.1

Dak PrescottDespite Dallas’ disappointing season last year, Dak Prescott had arguably the best statistical season he’s had as a passer. He threw for 4,902 yards, 30 TDs, and a 65.1% completion rate. On the ground, Prescott was able to run for an additional 277 yards and three TDs. As a result, he was able to perform as the second-best QB in fantasy football after accumulating 337 fantasy points on route to his best fantasy season (21.1 fantasy points/game).

2020 Projections

Pass YardsPass TDsInterceptionsRush YardsRush TDsFan. Pts.Fan. Pts./Game
4611.429.412.43044.8336.221

Heading into the 2020 season, Prescott is projected to be the fifth-best QB in fantasy football. He is still expected to generate nearly the same amount of fantasy points next season as he did in 2019. Nevertheless, Prescott will most likely witness regression from a rankings-standpoint. He is currently predicted to be the fifth-rated quarterback, which means that he will enter the season as a borderline tier 1 or 2 QB.

Two important factors will be integral to Dak’s fantasy value. Similar to Russell Wilson, Dak has never missed a game in his career. Even though injuries aren’t predictable, Dak’s consistent durability signals that he won’t need to be complemented with a stand-in QB for potential missed games. Besides durability, Dak’s ability to excel in both the passing and rushing game boosts his fantasy value. Last season, all of the ten best QBs in fantasy football could extend plays with their legs. Furthermore, Aaron Rodgers was the only top-ten fantasy QB who ran for less than 200 yards. Therefore fantasy owners can expect him to generate substantial production due to his dual-threat playing-style.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 7.12
Auction Value: $17

Currently, Dak Prescott’s average draft position is slated to be an early seventh-round pick. Given that Prescott has exhibited slow starts and shoddy finishes in 2018 and 2019, respectively, his lapses are amongst the most significant reasons to refrain from selecting him too early. Although considering Dak has achieved solid, improved fantasy production over the past three seasons, he should still be one of the first seven QBs drafted. If the Cowboys can bolster their WR and TE positions, then Dak’s auction price and ADP will look better than they are at the moment. Therefore Dak’s ADP and auction price will likely fluctuate after the draft.

Prescott’s auction price is definitely a better deal than Deshaun Watson’s $25 tag. Even though the Texans were able to pair Watson with Brandin Cooks, this acquisition won’t be enough to warrant Watson’s expensive price. However, since Watson’s former star WR, DeAndre Hopkins, is now on the Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray’s $17 tag is a better bargain than Dak. Matt Ryan, at $13, is also a better price than Dak if you are looking for an alternative to Dak.

Floor

Surprisingly, Dallas’ offensive line will cause Dak to experience regression in 2020. During the off-season, Cowboys’ center Travis Frederick astonishingly retired. Moreover, left tackle, Tyron Smith has been habitually hobbled throughout his past few seasons. Without these two guys, the Cowboys will be unable to provide Prescott with the elite pass protection he’s enjoyed for the majority of his NFL career. Consequently, his floor has been limited as a borderline tier 2 or 3 QB.

Ceiling

When Jerry Jones retained Amari Cooper this free-agency, many Cowboys fans rejoiced. Dak Prescott should also be elated by Cooper’s return in 2020 because the duo of Amari and Michael Gallup ensure that he has two reliable receiving options. Still, the Cowboys will need to find a good TE option or maximize Blake Jarwin if they want to assist Dak’s development as a passer. Although Jarwin’s potential success won’t be enough to make him a tier 1 QB on its own.

If the Cowboys fail to provide Dak with another quality pass-catcher, he will play closer to his floor. After the 2019 season, the Cowboys chose to let WR Randall Cobb leave to Houston even though he had 55 catches for 828 yards. With Cobb gone, the Cowboys two solid WRs won’t be enough to help him get to tier one status. Fortunately for Dak, it looks like Dallas will add a stellar WR in the draft since there is a lot of WR depth. If they add a guy like K.J. Hamler or KJ Hill, it would probably be enough to establish him a definite tier two QB. Nonetheless, the deterioration of Dallas’ OL will prevent him from being a reliable tier one.

Dallas Cowboys Offense

Dallas CowboysOne of the main factors dragging down Dak Prescott’s floor is the Cowboys’ coaching staff. Even though offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore was able to maximize Prescott’s value, the Cowboys’ offense experienced lapses with him at the helm. This inefficiency was most evident in the red-zone, where Dallas converted less than 57% of their trips into touchdowns from weeks one through 15 (one of the worst rates in the NFL during that span). Likewise, the hiring of Mike McCarthy won’t mitigate this issue since he also had his fair share of inconsistency as the play-caller in Green Bay.

Ezekiel Elliot helps Dak play as a passer because Prescott’s play-action passing efficiency is borderline to top-ten, according to playerprofiler.com. Therefore a good season from Zeke will correlate to an adequate fantasy season from Dak. However, Dak also had the 23rd ranked passer efficiency rating under pressure in 2019. This further reinforces the fact that Dallas’ impaired OL will lower his fantasy output.

Strength of Schedule

If you haven’t paid attention yet, the Cowboys offensive line is most likely going to be an Achilles heel for Dak. In fact, he’ll struggle against strong defensive lines due to the loss and regression of Travis Frederick and Tyron Jones. This could be problematic in the NFC East due to the DLs of the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins. According to pff.com, the Eagles pass rush received a top-five grade due to the presence of Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox. Likewise, the Redskins will likely draft phenom Chase Young to a daunting DL that already includes Johnathan Allen, D’Aron Payne, Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat, and Matt Ioannidis. Therefore, you can expect the Skins’ pass rushers to regularly pressure the Cowboys signal-caller. The Giants won’t likely be an issue for Dak, but the NFC East will still present a challenge.

Outside of the division, Dak’s opponents will still present some problematic matchups. For starters, the 49ers, Vikings, and Steelers will all harass Dallas’ OL since they all ranked in the top-five for sacks. Considering that the Ravens were able to add Calias Campbell and Derek Wolfe this off-season, Baltimore will likely be troublesome as well. The bright side is that the Cardinals will be an easy game for Dak since their defensive line and secondary are lackluster. However, that will likely be the only easy contest for Prescott.

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