Dalvin Cook Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Dalvin Cook has had some injury concerns to start his career, but for the most part he was healthy in 2019. Cook put together a strong season averaging over 20 PPR points per game on a run heavy Minnesota Vikings offense. Cook had 250 rushing attempts in 14 games, and finished 6th in PPR scoring among running backs. This was with him missing two games due to injury. As long as Cook is healthy, he is in an excellent spot. The offense is going to play well for him to get his weekly touches, and that is always what we are after. The difference between drafting Cook this year and last year is he has moved up a few spots in ADP, and his auction value is on the rise. However, a healthy cook can certainly pay off these price tags.

2019 Recap

One of the true workhorses of 2019 was Dalvin Cook. He had over 300 total touches and played 14 games. He had 63 targets in the passing game, and was efficient, catching 53 of them for 519 yards. While he didn’t have any receiving touchdowns, I would expect some positive regression in that department. As far as rushing yards, he finished with over 1,100 and he had a 4.5 yards per carry. In his career he has shown the ability to produce, even behind a lackluster offensive line. He had 13 touchdowns, and his usage around the goal line was everything we want in a fantasy back.

2020 Projections

There are only a few backs who project for double-digit touchdowns, and the amount of touches helps us project him for a solid floor. He also projects for strong numbers in the receiving game as well. As mentioned above, Cook projects for a few receiving touchdowns, and even with a drop in rushing touchdowns, he should be in the 10-13 mark when all is said and done. Producing around 1,500 all-purpose yards is in the works for Cook, which is why he ranks extremely high among running backs and has crept into the top ten as far as ADP goes. He is also going to be a more expensive auction price.

Most Valuable Fantasy Players (2019)
+ Value Over Replacement Player

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB (+17.5)
2. Michael Thomas, WR (+12.2)
3. Lamar Jackson, QB (+10.0)
4. Dalvin Cook, RB (+8.5)
5. Chris Godwin, WR (+7.4)
6. Travis Kelce, TE (+7.3)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 23, 2019

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Top Eight Pick

Auction Price: $51

If you are factoring in that he had played 15 total games over the first two seasons of his career, the durability might make you a bit queasy for where he is being drafted. Now if you can put that aside, you are drafting a high volume back who can be a top five back again. Being a part of the Vikings is also a great place for him because they are a run heavy offense and also find themselves in a lot of good game scripts that keep Cook involved. Even if they are behind, Cook has enough value in the pass game to be out there. I will say if you are scared of the durability, then look to draft his handcuff, Alexander Mattison. He will be the clear guy to get work of Cook was to go down with an injury.

Floor

Taking injuries out of it, most running backs have that chance of an injury derailing their floor. Cook in a healthy season has a stable floor. He projects to have a fairly safe touchdown projection, where even if regression hit him hard, he should be in the range of eight purpose touchdowns. Also factoring his overall yards through the air and on the ground, Cook has an extremely stable floor. Volume is always a big factor in this, and he has that 300 touch mark under his belt now.

Ceiling

In terms of a ceiling, there is certainly a chance that Cook can put together an extreme season where he plays all 16 games, and tops 1,300 yards on the ground and 500 yards on through the air, and finds the end zone 15 total times. We shouldn’t feel shocked for this to happen, because Cook has the touches and is involved in an offense where that can occur.

Minnesota Vikings Offense

For such a run heavy offense, Minnesota didn’t necessarily play at a slow pace. They were slightly above league average, ranking 12th in the league. The one thing that wasn’t on their side is that they didn’t see a ton of time of possession. However, none of this effected Cook much. Overall this offense was very inconsistent as a whole, but in the long run they averaged 24.6 points per game on the season, which was 11th. They were average in yards and yards per play. As mentioned with Cook’s volume, Minnesota loves to run. They ran at the fourth highest rate, and averaged the 5th most rushing attempts per game. I don’t see that changing much this year.

Strength Of Schedule

The Vikings will have the Bears on their schedule, which is a tough matchup for opposing back. That has been the case for Cook in his career against Chicago as well. Outside of that, Green Bay was a weak run defense and the Lions were as well. They don’t project to be much better at this stage of the offseason either. The Vikings will face the NFC South, which featured Carolina, who was the worst run defense in the league last season. Atlanta was not much better. The Saints and Buccaneers both ranked inside the top ten, and if the Buccaneers run defense can duplicate what they did, this would be a tough matchup for Cook. There are a few easy matchups on the horizon for Cook. The Jaguars ranked 31st against the run, and that isn’t going to change this year. Seattle was also a poor run defense, and Houston ranked 22nd against the run. These are three out of division games where Cook should be able to thrive in. The Colts should be better against the run, but they did rank league average last season.