David Montgomery Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking– RB29, ADP– 4.04, Auction Value ($200)– $28, Team– CHI, Bye– 6

The 2018 Chicago Bears were most known for their defense, which ranked 1st in the league and likely 1st in fantasy rankings this season. However, their offense wasn’t bad either; it ranked 9th in the league with a top 10 running game and middle of the pack in passing. Like most of the league, they ran a three receiver set with Jordan Howard taking the helm at the running game. Tarik Cohen was his compliment who mostly worked in the receiving game. However, David Montgomery was brought in with the 10th pick in the 3rd round to replace Howard who was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles.

On the #Bears, it is clear a main reason for moving on from Jordan Howard and acquiring Mike Davis & David Montgomery was the passing game

Nagy harped on his backs needing to specialize in at least one route, whether it be shallow or downfield, as it allows them to win in empty

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) June 25, 2019

Upside

There’s high hopes for Montgomery who will essentially be replacing Howard in the backfield. He’s likely to be the opening day starter and get close to 15 touches each game. In his final season at Iowa State, he led the team with 1,216 rushing yards with 13 TDs. He’ll be a solid rusher as the Bears had to move up in the draft to get him. They’re getting an NFL ready back who they obviously liked very much. If the Bears were willing to trade away Howard to draft Montgomery, there’s certainly a sense of trust that he’ll be good. Whether he’s better than Howard is something we’ll have to wait and see. If he is, a 950 rushing yard season with 8 TDs could be in sight.

Floor

If Montgomery isn’t the back Chicago expects him to be, fantasy owners could be in for a tough season. Though he had the second highest grade at the position during the combine, Montgomery lacks the breakaway speed to bust out of tough coverages in the trenches. He’s coming into the NFL with a fairly heavy workload during his time with Iowa State and there’s questions of whether he can sustain the hits over a full season. Worst case scenario, he becomes Chicago’s #2 option with Tarik Cohen taking charge as the lead back. The floor is set at 600 yards and 5 TDs.

What to Expect

Montgomery is currently ranked as the 29th running back off the board and holds an auction value of $28. He’s currently projected to have 4th round draft value. While there’s potential to be a starting caliber back in the NFL, Montgomery’s draft valuation is simply too high of a price. Though ranked as the 29th player at his position, running backs are a premium this year and securing a solid 1-2 combo will be crucial for fantasy owners.

While I expect Montgomery to profile more as a RB3, it almost seems he’s being thought of as a RB2 based on his 4th round valuation and $28 auction value. It’s hard for me to picture passing on Philip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, Kenyan Drake, and Sony Michel to take Montgomery in the 4th round. While he’s got potential to be good and return RB2 value, I’d much rather take someone who’s more established and has shown RB2 potential already. In this year’s draft, the running back position becomes a bit iffy after the initial Tier 1 and top of the Tier 2 group is gone. Montgomery is an intriguing Tier 2 or 3 pick but I’d feel much better if he were my 5th or 6th rounder.

In auction drafts, he’s going for $28 which isn’t astronomically high. In this year’s draft, my strategy will likely be paying up for one of the top tier RBs and having my second and third highest paid players be lower Tier 1 and higher Tier 2 wide receivers. That might leave me with roughly $100 left on the rest of my team, $15-$20 of which will go towards my second running back. While Montgomery doesn’t exactly fit the bill, he’ll give me a high upside pick that has the potential to become a very solid player for me.

While I’d likely start Montgomery at the FLEX position if he somehow ended up on my team, he’s got great potential. However, there’s other rookie and developing backs that are going right around the same spots in drafts. Unless you’re extremely in love with Montgomery, I’d like to wait, assuming he’s still available, until the 5th round or so to pick him up. I’d currently project him for a 650 rushing yard campaign and 6 TDs.