Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking– RB12, ADP– 4.01, Auction Value ($200)– $24, Team– TEN, Bye– 11

Tennessee Titans’ quarterback Marcus Mariota was plain bad last year. He only managed 11 passing touchdowns with 9 interceptions and 2 fumbles. Yikes! The offense as a whole ranked 27th though they were 7th in rushing yards and 12th in rushing TDs. That was largely due to a productive year from Derrick Henry who racked up 1,059 rushing yards and 12 TDs. He’ll look for another productive rushing year as the Titans hope to become more of an offensive threat.

Upside

After a fairly successful season of over 1,000 rushing yards and over 10 TDs, Henry had one of the better seasons at the RB positions last year. If he can improve on his performance, there’s a lot to be desired in his draft position. However, if his touchdown total falls, he could see a big dip in points. Nevertheless, the Titans will likely be able to spread out the field for him by running their 3 wide receiver set. If this is the case, Henry should continue see room to run and have an even better season. There’s potential for a 1,250 rushing yard campaign with 11 TDs.

Floor

If Mariota’s struggles continue, the Titans could turn to an exclusive running attack. With Mariota as a dual threat QB and Henry as their standout offensive weapon, defenses could recognize this and begin putting more men at the line. That might cause the offense to stall and for Henry to not get as many looks as he would expect. Though his volume of carries may increase, the yardage will likely remain very similar. Henry’s floor stands to be 850 rushing yards and 7 TDs.

It’s what people want to know:

Will Derrick Henry continue his assault on defenses the way he did late last season?@travhaney hits on that and more in the Titans Mailbag (Part 2):https://t.co/W2lcn6IWDG pic.twitter.com/nS7vDFlnTI

— The Athletic (@TheAthleticNSH) June 24, 2019

What to Expect

Henry is currently ranked as the 12th running back off the board and holds an auction value of $24. He’s currently projected to have 4th round draft value. Henry’s rankings is actually very interesting as he sits near the back of the RB2 group and head of the RB3 tier. Looking at his stats last year and you’d likely see him in the RB2 range. However, most of those stats were accumulated near the end of the season with two huge games against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Many people will doubt Henry’s actually deserving of a 4th round pick and you should too. He’s yet to show enough consistency for a full season and personally, he’s on my do not draft list. He’s shown flashes of RB2 potential but with other options out there, I’d rather stay away from Henry. Within those same rounds are Phillip Lindsay (4.07) and Mark Ingram (4.08) who might not have the same potential but are much safer options.

Auctionwise, Henry is going for around $24 which should be enough or close to netting you Leonard Fourette ($32), Devonta Freeman ($20), Phillip Lindsay ($22). With those names in mind, why not splurge or wait on a running back that has either more potential upside or has shown some type of consistency. Whatever the case may be, I’d be wary of Henry in my draft.

On the flip side, if all your other fantasy owners have the same concern over Henry, it might be worth taking a shot on him. I could easily make a case for a 5th or 6th round flier in a player who could potentially become your RB2. He seems to show more RB3 potential so I’d avoid taking him as early as round 4 where he’s currently projected. Without knowing if Henry can produce a full season of RB2 numbers, I’ll project him as a high upside RB3 to start the year with 900 rushing yard and 8 TD potential.