Drew Brees Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

The New Orleans Saints had another disappointing season. While other teams would view the Saints past couple of seasons as a success, I imagine that the Saints internally view their season as a failure. At age 41, quarterback Drew Brees is, undeservedly so, the face of this disappointment. Yet, the Saints window has not closed. The offensive line is a highlight of the team with its strength and depth. Wide-Reciever Michael Thomas gets better every year. Running back Alvin Kamara should have a productive year after injuries stifled his production in 2019. All these factors should provide Drew Brees opportunities to produce jaw-dropping statistics. Because of his consistency, I believe Brees will continue to shine on the field and on fantasy teams in 2020. However, his rushing game will diminish with age, hurting his fantasy value.

2019 Recap

PASS YDS PASS TDS RUSH YDS RUSH TDS FPTS FPPG
297928-41274 17.125

Drew Brees had a great statistical season even with the injuries. Despite missing five games for a hand thumb torn ligament, the hall-of-fame quarterback threw for 2979 yards and 27 touchdowns on a 74.3% completion rate. Just like Tom Brady, Brees continues to hold father time in purgatory as he chases his goal of one last Superbowl run. Fantasy-wise, Bree’s production in eleven games translated to 274 fantasy points and an average of 20.8 points per game. Even though Brees missed time, his numbers were elite and on pace for 4000+ yards and 35+ touchdowns. Yet, the missed games impacted his fantasy numbers as he finished 20th among all quarterbacks in points.

2020 Projections

PASS YDS PASS TDS RUSH YDS RUSH TDS FPTS FPPG
4229284126416.5

Given the quality of play during his limited season, I am confident that the quarterback will produce at an elite level in 2020. However, Brees has never been an athletic scrambling quarterback which limits his ceiling for rushing statistics. Because of this, Drew Brees is only rated by Lineups as the 10th ranked quarterback, instead of top 5 as his numbers passing numbers suggest. As the 10th ranked quarterback, Lineups projects Brees to finish the 2020 season with 4229 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. For Brees’ rushing statistics, Lineups project the quarterback to have four rushing yards and one touchdown. Fantasy wise, Lineups projects that Brees will produce 264 fantasy points for 16.5 points per game.

I agree with Lineups, especially concerning Brees’ projected touchdowns. Alvin Kamara will return healthy and dynamic as in previous seasons. Backup quarterback Tayson Hill serves as the gadget player for head coach Sean Payton. With his roll increasing, especially on red-zone plays, I could easily see Brees’ touchdown numbers decrease. Coupled with his rushing game diminishing, Brees’ fantasy value is lower than previous seasons.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 119.6  QB 10
Auction Value: 6
While Brees’ total value is projected to decline, I believe his elite passing statistics will keep him a viable quarterback for fantasy players. At an ADP of 119.6, I believe owners are fearful of his inevitable decline. However, statistically, I didn’t see signs of this decline. This leads me to believe that his decline won’t occur until 2021 or further even further down the line. Brees is one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the league and will use his IQ to create plays out of nothing. Therefore, I think his ADP is a bit low given what he offers in the passing games, his consistency, and his football IQ.

Floor

A healthy Drew Brees has one of the highest floors of any player in the league. Despite his hand injury, Brees has stayed relatively healthy his entire career, especially for his limited athleticism. I do not expect Brees to be hindered by injuries this season like 2019. In my eyes, 2019 was an anomaly for Brees

Also, Brees has been a consistent passer his entire career. Since going to New Orleans, Brees has passed for more than 3500 yards and 20 touchdowns. In the past two years, the Brees’ interception rate has hovered around one percent of all pass attempts. When drafting Brees, you know what you’re getting, a consistent pocket passer.

Ceiling

Brees’ ceiling is limited by his athleticism. While he’s had seasons with multiple rushing touchdowns, his rushing yards per season have never been higher than 70. Coupled with his age, I doubt that Sean Payton puts Brees in a lot of rushing situations in 2020. Also, I believe Brees benefits from the weapons around him. Michael Thomas broke the reception record in 2019. Alvin Kamara is a pro-bowl running back. The offensive line is a top-ten unit in the NFL. Brees has a level of stability around him that will help him reach his career averages. However, I don’t think Brees will have one of his 5000-yard seasons because the offense isn’t designed that way anymore. With Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Tayson Hill, Payton has leaned towards these weapons with increased frequency over the past few years.

Saints Offense

New Orleans SaintsAs previously mentioned, the Saint’s offense is destined to be great once again. There’s not much to say other than Brees will stay consistent with his career averages once again. There’s not much turnover and pickups like Emmanuel Sanders will provide age and experience to the wide receiver position. Also, while Tayson Hill’s gadget plays may take away opportunities for Brees, I don’t think this would hurt Brees’s overall production. Brees is still the focal point and face of the offense. Tayson Hill doesn’t change this.

Strength of Schedule

The Saints have an easy schedule when examining opposing pass defenses. They face the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons twice within their division. Non-division games against the Raiders, Lions, Chiefs, and Eagles are also favorable. This schedule gives me more confidence that Brees will be his typical self next season.

Final Thoughts

Drew Bree’s is destined to put up top-5 passing stats in 2020. The 41-year old has the knowledge, experience, and chemistry with his coach and teammates. Bree’s has the playmakers around him. Barring injury, the only thing that will limit his fantasy production is his rushing game. But given the inconsistency of some dual-threat quarterbacks, Brees could be the ideal pick for fantasy owners who want less risk and volatility at the position. Given his ADP, Brees should be a target for most owners at the selection.

  
Miles has participated in fantasy football and baseball for nearly 7 years with an appreciation for the level of fan engagement it brings to the game. In his free time, Miles is an avid runner who also enjoys poker, cooking, and watching movies.

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