Eric Ebron Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking- TE7, ADP- 6.12, Auction Value ($200)- $9, Team- IND, BYE- 6

Eric EbronEric Ebron had a rough start to his career on the Lions, but on the Indianapolis Colts it was revitalized. Ebron scored more touchdowns in his one season with the Colts than he did in 4 seasons with the Lions combined. A big bodied receiver, it makes sense that he would be so effective in the red zone, where he could leverage his superior size and strength. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, he was the best tight end in the red zone last season.

The Colts surprised a lot of people last season by making it to the divisional round. Despite starting last year 1-5, they ended their season strong going 9-1 to make the playoffs. Ebron was a big part of that, quickly becoming a favorite target of Andrew Luck’s. He was utilized a lot more creatively on the Colts than he was on the Lions, and it showed in his production. The Colts are positioned to make a run in the AFC, and to do so, Ebron will need to maintain this high level of play.

FPTS 2018TierGPRECSNP/GTGT/GYDSYDS/REC100+ YDSTDYahoo PTS/G
189.221666396.975011.411311.8

Upside

Ebron flourished in his first season with the Colts for a great many reasons. For one, Andrew Luck was a far better quarterback than Stafford was at any point in Ebron’s Lions career. With Luck finally injury free, Ebron will have a chance to develop their chemistry even more. They were dangerous last season and might be downright lethal this year. It also helps that the general talent level on the Colts is higher than on the Lions, meaning Ebron isn’t required to fill roles he isn’t comfortable in. The Colts are one of the more dangerous sleeper teams in the AFC, and Ebron reaching new heights would certainly help. If everything goes right, he could assert himself as one of the premier tight ends in the league. His ceiling is a 1000 yard 12 touchdown season.

Floor

Eric Ebron was terrific last year, but that’s still just 1 season’s worth of elite production. He struggled with consistency issues in Detroit and it’s possible they may resurface. He also must deal with Jack Doyle’s return. Doyle, the veteran tight end on the Colts, couldn’t stay healthy last year, only playing 6 games. If he does this season though, Ebron may have to sacrifice some of his targets to accommodate Doyle. It’s possible this adjustment period will negatively impact Ebron’s production this year. If his old issues from Detroit pop up again and he struggles adjusting to Doyle’s presence, Ebron could regress. His floor is a 600 yard, 5 touchdown season.

What to Expect

Indianpolis ColtsEbron is ranked as the 7th best tight end and has an auction value of $9. He’s expected to be drafted in the 6th round. This is phenomenal value for Ebron, especially when considering the number one tight end, Travis Kelce, costs three times as much. Ebron isn’t as productive as Kelce is, or even George Kittle and Zach Ertz are, but he was close last season. While this was in large part due to his high touchdown numbers, which he’ll have a hard time replicating, Ebron has a high chance of increasing his yardage as he develops a stronger rapport with Luck. Ebron, who is at worst a TE2 and has an opportunity to become a TE1, is an absolute steal at both his auction value and draft position.

Ebron’s career resurgence on the Colts may turn out to be something more, something bigger. At 26, he’s still fairly young and even though he’s a free agent after this year, I’m sure there’s mutual interest in resigning. He has the chance to become something special in Indianapolis, and it starts by building on what he’s shown last year. Personally, I think the chemistry he and Luck already have is just the start, and I foresee another strong year for Ebron. I’m expecting him to have a 900 yard, 9 touchdown season.

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