Ian Thomas Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
Contents
Ian Thomas was drafted in the 4th round in 2018 by the Panthers out of Indiana University. Despite some high-level measurables, Thomas hasn’t quite lived up to expectations – he only has produced 52 receptions and 469 yards in his two professional seasons. However, he has been playing behind Greg Olsen for the entirety of that stretch, something that is no longer the case after Olsen signed a contract with the Seahawks. Carolina is going to look completely different in 2020 after bringing in Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Rhule, and Joe Brady. Could all of that be to Ian Thomas’s benefit in terms of fantasy football relevance?
Ian Thomas seemed to make a play every day during training camp. Makes this catch and run look easy. #NorrisNotes pic.twitter.com/FZfXebTU99
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 18, 2018
2019 Recap
REC | REC YDS | REC TDS | FPTS | FPPG |
---|---|---|---|---|
16 | 136 | 1 | 35.6 | 2.2 |
The Panthers’ offense was already pretty incompetent in 2019, ranking just 20th in scoring on the year. Ian Thomas was hardly a contributor at all, ending up with just 16 targets on the year. He ranked as just the TE53 in PPR fantasy scoring and was irrelevant in fantasy football leagues. However, with Greg Olsen no longer on the roster, Thomas has a ton of opportunities to excel.
2020 Projections
REC | REC YDS | REC TDS | FPTS | FPPG |
---|---|---|---|---|
58.8 | 658.4 | 4 | 148.6 | 9.3 |
With all of the changes to the Carolina offense, I believe Ian Thomas has a strong likelihood to break out this season. Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore should both demand at least 120 targets, but the Panthers will be one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football this year. I have Ian Thomas putting together career-high numbers across the board, and these stats make him the TE14 in my season-long projections.
NFL Touchdown No. 2 for former Indiana tight end Ian Thomas. Also his second in as many weeks. Closing out his rookie season strong. #iufb pic.twitter.com/zJvFIamuWd
— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) December 30, 2018
ADP/Auction Value
ADP: 162, TE31
Auction Value: $1
Ian Thomas is mostly being undrafted in fantasy leagues this season. That’s not exactly surprising to me, but it underscores the significant depth at the tight end position that hasn’t existed in quite some time. There are several players like Thomas who are lasting well into the later rounds of drafts and can be good bets to finish with starting value at the tight end position. I would be excited to land a combination of Thomas along with someone like Tyler Higbee, Hayden Hurst, Jonnu Smith, or T.J. Hockenson at the end of my draft.
Floor
It’s hard to get a great read on what Ian Thomas’s baseline is heading into this season, given he hasn’t produced anything of note to this point in his career. However, Greg Olsen is leaving behind 82 targets, which, combined with Thomas’s 30 targets from last season, would clear the path for 100+ targets this season. Let’s assume Thomas plays on the same number of snaps as Olsen in the previous season and sees the same target share. His career catch rate of 65.8% would put him down for 54 receptions, and his career yards per reception would put him down for 485 yards. Add in a few touchdowns, and he’s good for about 120 fantasy points – that would have made him a top-15 tight end in fantasy last season.
Ceiling
Much to the dismay of Panthers fans, Ian Thomas only played on an average of 6% of snaps per week over the first eleven weeks of the season – he didn’t have a single catch during that span. He finally started producing over the last few weeks of the season, and with the new coaching staff in tow, it’s unlikely those snap concerns will persist. The Panthers didn’t add any competition for Thomas at the tight end position, so 100+ targets could be in the cards. That would set him up for 65 catches for 700 yards. If he adds a handful of touchdowns through the air, he could be looking at top-ten fantasy value at his position.
Hell of a catch and toe-drag by TE Ian Thomas pic.twitter.com/8lBX8mnQIF
— Ty Wurth (@WurthDraft) September 1, 2017
Carolina Panthers Offense
Teddy Bridgewater is the new quarterback for the Panthers and should offer a significant improvement from the trio of an injured Cam Newton, mediocre Kyle Allen, and inexperienced Will Grier from last season. Bridgewater hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2015 when he helmed a playoff Vikings team. However, that team was one of the most run-heavy in football – they ranked 4th in rushing attempts and last in passing attempts. They rode Adrian Peterson and the 5th-ranked scoring defense to the playoffs that season. Bridgewater produced more compelling numbers in limited time with the Saints over the past couple of years and could be set up for career-best production as he appears to be in the best shape he’s been in since his gruesome injuries with the Vikes. Joining Bridgewater in the offense, of course, is All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, who set the league on fire last year to the tune of 2,392 yards from scrimmage and 19 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns. Third-year wide receiver D.J. Moore had career-high production last season despite such inconsistent quarterback play as he put up 87 catches for 1,175 yards and four touchdowns. The Panthers’ other two notable wideouts, Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson, have had mixed levels of success throughout their relatively short careers. Still, their deep-threat ability should open up a ton of room underneath for Ian Thomas to exploit. The Panthers could be one of the most underrated offenses in football talent-wise, and the presence of Joe Brady can’t be overlooked. The team’s new offensive coordinator previously led the Saints to excellent offensive production and recently led the LSU offense that broke several records this past year.
Strength of Schedule
It’s always tricky to confidently extrapolate fantasy defense numbers, but this is especially true for points allowed to the tight end. One great cover linebacker or safety can make a world of difference in this regard. Still, the Panthers’ schedule seems to set up nicely for Ian Thomas. The NFC South is a division that should feature a ton of shootouts this season, and while the Saints finished 10th in points allowed to TEs last year, the Falcons (16th) and Buccaneers (26th) finished much worse. The Panthers also take on the AFC West this season, a division that houses the fearsome secondary play of the Chargers and Broncos. Those two teams have two of the better coverage safeties in the NFL in Derwin James and Justin Simmons. That is balanced out by the presence of the Raiders (25th) and Chiefs (28th), who could not call tight end coverage a strength last year. Luckily for Panthers’ offensive players, their slate features the other bottom-feeders from their divisions of last season. That means Ian Thomas will be able to take on the putrid tight end defenses of the Bears (24th), Redskins (29th), and Cardinals (32nd). Rounding out the Carolina slate is the other teams from the NFC North. The Vikings ranked 7th in tight end fantasy defense while the Packers (18th) and Lions (15th) were middle-of-the-pack.
#Panthers new TE Ian Thomas (first selection of the 4th Round). #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/QezRKgaGVC
— ✊🏾 (@TacosNSlurpees) April 28, 2018
Bottom Line
Ian Thomas only has 52 catches in two seasons and was a non-factor last year, so he’s not likely to be on the radar for many fantasy football owners this season. He might go undrafted in many leagues, which I believe would be a mistake. I think there’s a solid chance he finishes with top-15 value or even higher in an offense built to air out the ball. The additions of Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Brady, as well as the departure of Greg Olsen, point to breakout potential for Ian Thomas this season, and the athletic upside he has always possessed could shine through for fantasy owners.
- Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Kyler Murray Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Lamar Jackson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Saquon Barkley Fantasy Football Value
- Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Value
- Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Michael Thomas Fantasy Football Value
- Deshaun Watson Fantasy Football Value
- Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Football Value
- Mike Evans Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Dalvin Cook Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Austin Ekeler Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- George Kittle Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Zach Ertz Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Chris Godwin Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Julio Jones Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Mark Andrews Fantasy Football Value
- DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy Football Value
- Russell Wilson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Davante Adams Fantasy Football Value
- Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Dak Prescott Fantasy Football Value
- Courtland Sutton Fantasy Football Value
- Keenan Allen Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Kenny Golladay Fantasy Football Value
- Leonard Fournette Fantasy Football Value
- Odell Beckham Jr. Fantasy Football Value
- Kenyan Drake Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Travis Kelce Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Stefon Diggs Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Le’Veon Bell Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Todd Gurley Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Melvin Gordon Fantasy Football Outlook
- Miles Sanders Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Tyrod Taylor Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Brandin Cooks Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Hunter Henry Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- David Johnson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Darren Waller Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Josh Allen Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- DK Metcalf Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Josh Jacobs Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Calvin Ridley Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- DJ Chark Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Austin Hooper Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Amari Cooper Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Terry McLaurin Fantasy Football Outlook
- D.J. Moore Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- Darius Slayton Fantasy Football Outlook & Value
- JuJu Smith-Schuster Fantasy Football Outlook
- T.Y. Hilton Fantasy Football Outlook
- Tom Brady Fantasy Football Outlook
- Michael Gallup Fantasy Football Outlook
- Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook
- Cooper Kupp Fantasy Football Outlook
- James Conner Fantasy Football Outlook
- Tyler Higbee Fantasy Football Outlook
- Derrius Guice Fantasy Football Outlook
- D'Andre Swift Fantasy Football Outlook
- Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Outlook
- Adam Thielen Fantasy Football Outlook
- Tyler Lockett Fantasy Football Outlook
- CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Outlook
- Robert Woods Fantasy Football Outlook
- Evan Engram Fantasy Football Outlook
- A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
- Allen Robinson Fantasy Football Outlook
- Drew Brees Fantasy Football Outlook
- DeVante Parker Fantasy Football Outlook
- Julian Edelman Fantasy Football Outlook
- David Montgomery Fantasy Football Outlook
- Matt Ryan Fantasy Football Outlook
- Mark Ingram Fantasy Football Outlook
- Matthew Stafford Fantasy Football Outlook
- Jared Goff Fantasy Football Outlook
- Carson Wentz Fantasy Football Outlook
- Chris Carson Fantasy Football Outlook
- Devin Singletary Fantasy Football Outlook
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire Fantasy Outlook
- Teddy Bridgewater Fantasy Football Outlook
- Daniel Jones Fantasy Football Outlook
- Gardner Minshew Fantasy Football Outlook
- Ryan Tannehill Fantasy Football Outlook
- A.J. Green Fantasy Football Outlook
- Ke'Shawn Vaughn Fantasy Football Outlook
- James White Fantasy Football Outlook
- Matt Breida Fantasy Football Outlook
- Emmanuel Sanders Fantasy Football Outlook
- Larry Fitzgerald Fantasy Football Outlook
- Mike Gesecki Fantasy Football Outlook
- Ian Thomas Fantasy Football Outlook
- T.J. Hockenson Fantasy Football Outlook
- Tyler Boyd Fantasy Football Outlook
- Marquise Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
- Jonnu Smith Fantasy Football Outlook
- Hayden Hurst Fantasy Football Outlook
- Anthony Miller Fantasy Football Outlook
- Deebo Samuel Fantasy Football Outlook
- Jarvis Landry Fantasy Football Outlook
- Marvin Jones Fantasy Football Outlook
- Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Football Outlook
- Jalen Reagor Fantasy Football Outlook
- Kareem Hunt Fantasy Football Outlook
- Tee Higgins Fantasy Football Outlook
- Cam Akers Fantasy Football Outlook
- Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2020 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings
- Fantasy Football Half PPR Rankings
- Top 250 Dynasty Rankings
- 2020 Fantasy Defense Rankings
- 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers
- 2020 Quarterback (QB) Projections & Rankings
- 2020 Kicker Fantasy Rankings
- 2020 Wide Receiver Fantasy Rankings
- 2020 Top 50 Defensive Players (IDP)
- 2020 Fantasy Team Defense Cheat Sheet
- 2020 Running Back PPR Rankings
- 2020 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
- Defense Fantasy Football Rankings
- Fantasy Football Points Allowed
- Fantasy Football Points Scored
- Fantasy Football Stats
- Fantasy Football Projections
- 2020 Fantasy Football Sleepers
- Top 25 Running Back Sleepers
- Top 25 Wide Receiver Sleepers
- Top Tight End Fantasy Football Sleepers
- Quarterback Fantasy Football Sleepers
- Top 5 Defense Fantasy Sleepers