James Conner Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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After stepping in for a full season, James Conner looked great in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. This offense has given us plenty of fantasy production over the last decade, and while the names are changing, the production has stayed relatively the same. Conner churned his way to a top ten fantasy season among running backs, securing over 200 attempts and he had 12 total touchdowns. His receiving production also put him as a safe play in PPR leagues. There is a lot to like about Conner again in 2019, but this time we don’t have the mystery to drag down his ADP.

2018 Fantasy Recap

We weren’t quite sure about James Conner last season, as he wasn’t even the first Steelers running back drafted. With a holdout and eventual departure of Le’Veon Bell, Conner dominated in the 2018 campaign. He fit right in and dominated in the red zone as well. Conner had 32 red zone rushing attempts and 11 touchdowns. He was also third on the team in target percentage, giving him a pretty well rounded role with the team. Conner’s 2018 is a good indicator of what he can do within this offense, and there were some question marks about his usage moving forward, but it seems this volume is here to stay.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

James Conner gets a pretty lenient fantasy schedule this season, getting nine bottom half defenses, and has a stretch from week 10-14 where he faces all bottom eight rush defenses. Week 16 is also against the Jets, so Conner is in a great spot for the playoff push. Conner was just a handcuff last season, and now he is being drafted as an RB1. He is certainly in the mix of a top ten back, but isn’t quite in that first tier of options. Conner projects for over 1,000 yards this season, and should be around the 1,400-1,500 all-purpose yard mark. With this offense still being able to move the ball, it would not be a surprise to see Conner have similar red zone numbers which bring him touchdown success. Nothing was a fluke about his 2018, and 2019 projects a comfortable floor with upside.

James Conner snap rates by game before injury:

Week 1: 92%
Week 2: 88%
Week 3: 85%
Week 4: 79%
Week 5: 74%
Week 6: 90%
Week 8: 79%
Week 9: 84%
Week 10: 40%*
Week 11: 89%
Week 12: 86%
Week 13: 72%

*31-point blowout win https://t.co/WQgTZVexmE

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 1, 2019

Draft & Auction Value

If you are on the turn around in the second round, or end of the first round, James Conner is likely there for the taking. he is in a similar range with the backs in his range, and I like him over Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. He doesn’t come with the red flags that those names do, which makes him a preferred target for me. Conner is a solid option in this range, and projecting for double-digit touchdowns and nearly 1,500 yards is solid production for this range. As for auction values, Conner comes in with a discount from that next tier, and the balanced auction approach could lead you to Conner being your RB1. Love his potential, and don’t mind his ADP or auction value.