Jarvis Landry Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Introduction

Jarvis Landry is a premier wide receiver in the NFL. Primarily operating in the slot, Landry has consistently stayed healthy and produced at an elite level with nearly 5 consecutive 1000 yard seasons. He continues to get targeted and schemed in the offense no matter what team he’s on and makes the most of his targets by finishing with over 80 receptions every year of his NFL career.

What prevents Landry from having another great fantasy season is the pieces surrounding him in Cleveland. While Cleveland arguably got even better offensively, these new additions such as Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt, and Donovan Peoples-Jones will take targets away from Landry. While I don’t predict it to have a major impact on Landry’s production, I could see the receiver dip into the 70s in receptions and low 900s in receiving yards. Coupled with Baker Mayfield’s struggles, Landry isn’t the sure bet he’s always been in his career.

2019 Recap

With Odell Beckham Jr. less dominant than usual due to injury, Jarvis Landry stepped up big time becoming Mayfield’s go-to option in 2019. Landry and Mayfield’s chemistry was impressive as, time and time again, Mayfield knew where Landry was on the field at all times and Landry understood when Mayfield was under pressure. Landry proved once again that his previous seasons were not flukes.

Landry finished the 2019 season with 83 receptions for 1164 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. I was continually impressed with Landry’s ability to get separation and be the possession target Mayfield needed while constantly under duress. After 5 straight seasons of similar productivity, expect Landry to continue this trend in 2020.

2020 Projections

I see Landry’s numbers dipping slightly in 2020 simply because of the Brown’s offensive roster full of talent. The biggest weakness for the Browns in 2019 was their offensive line. Now that the team addressed the offensive line and signed tight end Austin Hooper, the Browns offensive should run smoothly. Even if Baker Mayfield struggles as he did last year, Landry should still get targets outside the slot. I just think the few extra pieces at skill positions will lower Landry’s production slightly.

Lineups agrees projecting the receiver to finish with 72 receptions for 916 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. Fantasy-wise, Lineups projects Landry to finish with 196 fantasy points for 12.25 fantasy points per game. Again, the projection takes into account a healthy Odell Beckham Jr., the inclusion of Austin Hooper, and the tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Jarvis Landry will still be Jarvis Landry but with a slight decrease in production.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 54.7 WR: 26
Auction Value $13

A lot of fantasy owners are concerned with drafting Landry because of Odell Beckham Jr’s presence. Their concerns are valid as most teams struggle to have two 1000 yard receivers in a given season. With the Austing Hooper addition, a tight end capable of having 700 receiving yards, you are counting on Mayfield to throw for yardage.

These factors have contributed to Landry’s lower ADP. At and ADP of 54.7, Landry is a 5th round pickup expected to be a team’s number 2 receiver. I can’t hate the pickup at that ADP as Landry provides such a high floor for fantasy teams. On top of this, he’s produced without elite quarterback play.

There are a few guys such as Michael Gallup (49.6) and D.K. Metcalf (45.9) that I wouldn’t take over Landry. Landry has shown more consistency and durability than the two receivers while also doing more with the worst quarterback. With a huge dip in receivers after Landry, I would reach for Landry over Gallup and Metcalf. However, I would feel more comfortable drafting Landry in the late 50s/early 60s.

Most slot catches of 15+ yards in 2019:

Randall Cobb – 22
Chris Godwin – 21
Jarvis Landry – 19
Tyler Boyd – 18
Tyler Lockett – 18
Robert Woods – 18 pic.twitter.com/ZnvJD0l3Ie

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 28, 2020

Floor

Jarvis Landry has a very high floor. He’s shown in his first five seasons that he can produce despite the quarterback behind the snap. Also, he’s never caught below 80 passes and been injured for a long stretch of games. You can expect Landry to stay healthy and get separation in the open field. Because of this, I don’t see a scenario where he finishes with less than 70 receptions or 850 yards. Despite the weapons, he will still be a focal point on this team.

Ceiling

Landry’s ceiling is 100+ receptions for 1200+ yards. He’s reached 100+ receptions and crossed the 1100 mark twice in his career. I don’t see much room for an even better season than that unless Mayfield takes a leap or Beckham Jr. struggles with injuries once again. For these reasons, his ceiling his high, but I’m not expecting him to reach that ceiling.

Browns Offense

The Browns offense is loaded and arguably the best offense in the entire league. With a much improved offensive line, average quarterback play, a top 5 running back group, and a strong receiving corp should work in favor of Jarvis Landry. He’s not longer going to the consistent focal point for opposing defenses. However, with so many mouths to feed, Landry’s production could slightly drop in quality. Yet, an improved offense should hopefully be able to move the ball with more precision, increasing their time on the field and subsequent targets to receivers. This could benefit Landry.

Strength of Schedule

The Browns have a tough schedule simply because they play two of the best defenses in their division, Ravens, and Steelers, twice. However, outside of a matchup against the Jets and the Titans, the Browns play some of the league’s worst defensive units. If you have a viable 3rd receiver, I would consider inserting him into the starting lineup and benching Landry against the Ravens and Steelers. Besides those games, fantasy owners can relax and play Landry every week.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Landry is one of the best, if not best, slot receivers in the NFL. He’s always healthy and produces consistent 80 reception and 950 receiving yard seasons. Drafting Landry in the 50s is a perfect spot given the talent on the Browns offense. Landry is one of the safest picks at the receiver position for any fantasy owners, especially at his ADP.