Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking- TE10, ADP- 14.02, Auction Value($200)- $4, Team- GB, BYE- 11

Jimmy Graham, at 32 years of age, is clearly not the player he once was. Still, that doesn’t mean he can’t provide value as a starting tight end for the Green Bay Packers. Graham disappointed in large part last season because of his low touchdown numbers. He only found the end zone twice, tied for his lowest scoring season. It was even more disappointing considering the Packers were counting on the Aaron Rodgers and Graham connection paying off big. Graham’s future on the team is up in the air but should he return, Aaron Rodgers will hope an extra offseason with him will make their connection more formidable.

Aaron Rodgers banking on a big year from Packers TE Jimmy Graham https://t.co/rhIfSzwvCX

— The Packers Wire (@ThePackersWire) June 5, 2019

 

 

The Packers will be hoping a new, innovative coach in Matt Lafleur will significantly improve their offense. The important thing will be making sure he and Rodgers will be on the same page. Last season there was tension between him and Mike McCarthy and the whole offense suffered because of it. Graham probably won’t ever be a 1000 yard receiver again, but at his size, he still holds solid value. Hopefully he’s utilized better in Lafleur’s system than he was in McCarthy’s system, especially in the red zone.

FPTS 2018	Tier	GP	REC	SNP/G	TGT/G	YDS	YDS/REC	100+ YDS	TD	Yahoo PTS/G
103.1	2	16	55	49	5.6	636	11.6	1	2	6.4

Upside

Graham is not that far removed from his 10 touchdown season in Seattle, so there’s hope he’ll be better in the red zone this year. Aaron Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, so even if he and Graham were disappointing last season the potential is still there. He may be older, but his size remains unchanged, so he still should be a formidable threat in the end zone. It’s not inconceivable to think that, with a new offensive system and a stronger connection with his quarterback, Graham can bounce back this year. In a best-case scenario, Graham can put up 600 yards and score 8 touchdowns.

Floor

Jimmy Graham has been declining physically for a couple years now, and that’s not changing even with the new system in place. Another significant drop in his play might get him benched or even cut from the team. Graham probably doesn’t have many seasons left, and the Packers are in win now mode. If Graham underperforms for the second year in a row on the team might just cut their ties, as they don’t have the time to wait for him. His floor is a 400 yard 2 touchdown season.

What to Expect

Graham is currently ranked as the 10th best tight end and has an auction value of $4. He’s currently expected to be drafted in the 14th round. There’s a possibility Graham provides almost nothing this season, but at such a low price, there isn’t any reason to not give him a shot. Whether you’re drafting him extremely late in the 14th round or getting him for $4, he’d be a bargain if only because of his potential. He’s a low risk high reward pickup to me, and you can’t go wrong getting those type of players.

Graham is likely only able to give high end TE2 production at most at this stage of his career. A total resurgence back to his Saints days is extremely unlikely, but it’s still very possible he can play like he did in his last season with the Seahawks. He may not pick up the yardage, but he can still utilize his big frame to score a lot of touchdowns. Assuming this will be a locker room less divided than last year, Graham should get to work in a more stable environment. I think his second year will go better than the last, as I do believe Matt Lafleur will utilize him in much smarter ways than his predecessor did. I think he’ll have a 550 yard, 7 touchdown season.