Jordan Howard Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking- RB31, ADP- 8.05, Auction Value($200)- $12, Team- PHI, BYE- 10

Jordan Howard had pretty solid 2017 season for the Chicago Bears, amassing over 1000 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per attempt. Unfortunately, he backslid a bit last season as his role decreased, in part due to Tarik Cohen’s rise. In the offseason, he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s expected that he’ll be the lead running back there, and he’ll get the chance to remind everyone why he was one of the most exciting young running backs in the league. We’ll see how well he can fit with his new team, but his new coach appears to be excited about him.

“He’s going to bring stability. He’s a big, powerful back – he’s a downhill runner. I’m excited about his opportunity here in Philadelphia.”

Coach Pederson can’t wait to see Jordan Howard perform in 2019.

(via @NFLTotalAccess) pic.twitter.com/M8wRHdufbf

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) July 12, 2019

 

The Eagles disappointed for much of last season before riding an unexpected hot stretch towards the end to sneak into the playoffs, with Nick Foles leading the way. Now Foles is gone, and Carson Wentz has become the undisputed starter. The Eagles started the season with Jay Ajayi at running back but after he went down with an injury, the Eagles lacked a true workhorse the rest of the way. The hope is that Howard can adequately replace him, as behind Howard there aren’t many proven options in the running back depth chart.

FPTS 2018	GP	ATT	RUSH YDS	YDS/ATT	ATT/G	100+ YDS	RUSH TD	REC	TGTS/G	REC YDS	REC TDS	YAHOO FPTS/G
170	16	250	935	3.7	15.6	2	9	20	1.7	145	0	10.6

Upside

It was only a couple seasons ago that Howard amassed over 1300 rushing yards on over 5 yards per attempt as a rookie. Yes, his production has steadily decreased since then, but that may not necessarily be because he’s declining. The rise of Tarik Cohen lessened Howard’s attempts per game and the Bears shift in their offensive scheme might have negatively impacted Howard’s production as well. It’s possible Philadelphia ends up being a much better fit for Howard and allows him to recover his rookie season form. His ceiling is a 1300 rushing yard, 300 receiving yard, and 10 touchdown season.

Floor

Conversely, it’s possible that Howard’s strong start was the anomaly, and that it was the result of a perfect storm of events. Howard may simply not be able to be as productive he was in his rookie season anymore. Running backs do have pretty short lifespans so it might be possible, even at just 24, he’s already declining physically. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen something like this happen, as Alfred Morris was also a running back that had a terrific rookie season than started a slow decline after. If Howard just isn’t as sharp as he once was, then a change of scenery won’t help that much. In a worst-case scenario, he’ll have a 700 rushing yard, 100 receiving yard, 6 touchdown season.

What to Expect

Howard is currently ranked as the 31st beset running back and holds an auction value He is expected to be drafted in the 8th round. Honestly, this is a pretty accurate estimate of Howard’s value. It isn’t an overpay or a bargain for his services. Howard is likely to be an upper tier RB2 at best, so snagging him in the 8th round seems pretty fair.

The Eagles have high expectations for this season, and nothing less than a deep playoff run would be a disappointment. They’re definitely going to be relying on Howard to be their every down workhorse, so Howard should at least get the adequate number of touches. Whether he’ll be efficient enough to make it matter is another question, as his efficiency steadily went down from a terrific rookie year. Another drop would be pretty disastrous for Howard and would likely make his stay with the Eagles shorter than expected. I personally think his average yards per attempt will go up with the Eagles, though I doubt it’ll ever be as high as his rookie year. I think he’ll have a 1000 yard rushing season, 150 yard receiving season, and scored 8 touchdowns.