Julio Jones Football Outlook & Value 2020

Julio Jones has been a model of consistency since entering the league. He has over 1,300 yards in every season since 2014. While we can talk about his lack of receiving touchdowns, he is still one of the top fantasy players year in and year out. He plays on a strong Atlanta Falcons offense for fantasy, and while he will be 31 this season, those WR1 type targets are not going away any time soon. Jones is coming off of a WR5 season, and that is with him missing a game, and scoring six receiving touchdowns. That week to week consistency that he brings is tough to find, and that is why he is once again in line for being a potential late first or early second round pick.

2019 Recap

Jones ended up finishing as WR5 in PPR leagues, and finished second in receiving yards. Of course this was to Michael Thomas, who led in just about everything last season. Jones continued to dominate in targets, where once again he finished second to Thomas with 156 targets. Jones had six touchdowns, which continues to irk people because he has only one double-digit touchdown season in his career, but the numbers come regardless. He averaged 6.6 receptions per game, and 92.9 receiving yards per game. Jones was used the most in the red zone with 16 targets, which still isn’t enough, but he was effective catching 12 of them for five touchdowns.

2020 Projections

While we are seeing Julio Jones slide down the overall rankings a bit, it is not by much. It is also partly due to the fact that we are seeing so many strong fantasy wideouts emerge. Jones is still projected for a top eight season, and of course has plenty of room for upside. He is going to see a ton of targets per usual, and will rely on receptions and yards most week to get you by. While he may not put together many of those 25+ fantasy point weeks, his consistent 15-17 PPR points per game will get you there.

NFL Receiving Yards Leaders, Last Three Seasons (2017-2019):

1. Julio Jones – 4515
2. Michael Thomas – 4375
3. DeAndre Hopkins – 4115
4. Keenan Allen – 3788
5. Mike Evans – 3682
6. Travis Kelce – 3603
7. Tyreek Hill – 3522
8. Davante Adams – 3268
9. Jarvis Landry – 3137

— RussellJClay (@RussellJClay) March 11, 2020

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Late First / Early Second

Auction Price: $46

Julio Jones has an interesting ADP because of the names that are creeping up into this category. You might be looking for someone with higher touchdown upside, but Jones can still break off a top three fantasy season, even though I would peg him to finish more in the 5-7 range. The pick and auction value you are spending on him is still fairly safe, so I have no issue with kicking things off with Jones. He gets a ton of targets and the floor each week is one of the best.

Floor

The freakish 2017 season where Julio Jones had just three touchdowns sticks out like a sore thumb, but he has never finished below six touchdowns in a season outside of 2013 where he played just five games. Five or six touchdowns is a pretty good marker for where Jones can finish when it comes to touchdowns, and his overall yardage is the safer aspect of his game, alongside his receptions. He has finished with 100+ receptions in three of the last six seasons, and would have finished with 100+ last season but did miss one game. He had 99 otherwise. Jones is safe for 85+ receptions and 1,300+ receiving yards as long as he is healthy. While he has had a questionable tag at times, he generally plays through whatever he is carrying with him, and it has not hindered his fantasy finishes come the end of the season.

Ceiling

I still believe Jones can put together a 1,400 receiving yard season and have 9-10 touchdowns, which would put him in line to be an elite fantasy wideout. It is all about him finding the end zone a few more times, and he has never really shown that during his career. However, adding in the fact he can nab 110 receptions and produce over 200 PPR points in a season, he is still a good mix of floor and ceiling.

Atlanta Falcons Offense

It may have been another disappointing year for the Falcons, but the offense still put up plenty of points. They averaged 23.8 points per game, and averaged 379.7 yards per game. They threw the ball 66.9% of the time, partially because of a horrendous run game and their defense was banged up again. This led to a ton of passing production. With the signing of Todd Gurley they should get some of that rushing product back, but overall the Falcons offense has always been built to throw the ball. This offense is once again tailored to get Jones the ball, which is why he has been such a consistent fantasy option over his career.

Strength Of Schedule

When looking at Julio Jones, he has rarely been held in check, and looking at this schedule it is hard to see anyone holding him in check. The six division games are always strong for him, but the Panthers secondary is abysmal and will be bad in 2020. This bodes well for anyone, but Jones will have a field day. Tampa Bay got better towards the end of the season, and overall Jones is still a mismatch for their secondary. Detroit will draft a CB, but traded away Darius Slay. Seattle, Las Vegas, Dallas, and the Vikings are all going to be premium matchups for Jones. At the moment it is hard to see any sort cornerbacks on that team being able to stop Jones. Jones will have some tougher matchups on the road against the Packers, Chiefs, and Chargers. These secondaries should rank inside the top half this year, but once again Jones is someone who we look at and can say they are matchup proof. Overall it is not a bad schedule for JOnes and this passing offense, although they won’t have as many dome games as they did last season.