Justin Fields Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2021

The Bears traded up 9 spots in the 2021 draft to take Justin Fields as the 4th quarterback off the board. Justin Fields is the Bears’ quarterback for the future and I could totally see why the Bears traded their future again for this guy. Fields went 20-2 as a starter at Ohio State and looked incredible as their star quarterback. He even got the monkey off of his back by demolishing the Clemson Tigers in the college football playoffs semifinals after taking a hit that badly bruised his ribs. Fields was a stud in college and the Bears might have found the next Patrick Mahomes as they try and recover from the Mitch Trubisky debacle. 

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2020 Recap 

Fields has everything you want from a quarterback coming out of college. He has the experience, numbers, mentality, and measurable physical attributes necessary to succeed in the NFL. Fields is 6’3” 227 lbs ran a 4.44 40 yard dash, which is also as fast as Kyle Pitts. He started 2 full seasons at Ohio State and threw for 5,373 yards, 63 TDS, 9 INTS. Best of all Fields seems fully invested in making the Chicago Bears contenders again and his old teammates rave about his work ethic. Fields was the presumptive 2nd quarterback taken off the board after Trevor Lawrence but then plummeted out of favor after Zach Wilson and Trey Lance held their pro days. Fields slid down draft boards for no reason and should shine in the NFL with his rocket arm, great scrambling ability, and great size reminiscent to MVP Cam Newton.  

2021 Projections

I don’t expect Justin Fields to become the full-time starter until after Week 4. Right now, Matt Nagy has made it clear that Andy Dalton is the starter for Week 1 and Fields will be the back-up. However, I see the Bears losing their first couple of games and looking bad on offense, so Nagy will have no choice but to put Fields in. Once Fields is the starter, I don’t see Dalton getting his job back as Fields is too talented and works too hard to play badly. I would make Fields’ numbers higher, but I can’t since he is guaranteed to not play at least 1 week. That being said, I do think Fields will have some rookie moments and at times not look great. But after getting in rhythm and playing a couple of games, Fields will get used to the speed of the NFL and play well. 

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: 190, Rounds 15-16, QB22

Auction Value: $0

I would not pick Fields at the start of the season if I was an owner. I would wait until Andy Dalton looks bad after a couple of games and let him sit on the waiver wire until there are rumblings that Fields might start until I pick him up. At the start of the season, Fields offers no value by sitting on my bench when he is not playing. In a league where you can 3 or 4 roster spots open for quarterbacks, then sure stash Fields until he is playing. But in normal leagues where you can roster 2 QBs at most, then wait for the rumors that Fields will start until you get him. Once he is starting, Fields has plenty of trade value and starting play capability just because we don’t know what he can do on the NFL level. 

Floor 

These two sections about Fields is going to be very difficult because we have no tape on Fields in an NFL game. So for this section, I would like to direct your attention to one of Fields’ worst games, his game against Northwestern in the Big 10 championship. In this game, Fields looked bad as he completed 12 out of 27 passes for 124 yards and 2 INTS. Fields was carried by his teammates in this game and looked very confused when going through his reads, as shown by his putrid 44.4 completion percentage. If Fields shows a recurrence of games like this at the NFL level, then the Bears could have done it again and pulled a Mitch Trubisky 2.0. 

Ceiling

Not all games were bad games for Justin Fields in college. The Northwestern game was more of a one-off game that he had compared to his norm. And we can’t recap Fields’ college career without talking about the time that he put a spanking on the Clemson Tigers in the 2020 College Football Playoff Semifinal. In this game, Justin Fields hurt his ribs in the middle of the second quarter after taking a hit when he was escaping the pocket. He left the game and many wondered if he would return. He returned the next play and was lights out the rest of the game. Fields completed 22 out of 28 passes for 385 yards and 6 touchdowns with 1 INT and completely obliterated the Clemson secondary. He completed passes into narrow windows and deep down the field and showed people why many thought he was the 2nd best quarterback in this year’s draft class. Fields will look to have games like this in the NFL and become the franchise quarterback Bears fans have been starving for. 

Chicago Bears Offense 

The long sad story of the Bears is that they have a spectacular defense and fall short of true Super Bowl contention because of their inept offense, and last season was no different. The Bears ranked 25th in total offense in what would become the tragic end of the Mitch Trubisky experiment. The Bears averaged a mediocre 23.3 points per game but that was only because they scored 36 against the Texans and 41 against the Jaguars. Against real competition, they only scored 9 against the Saints and 11 against the Colts. Make no mistake, this Bears offense was painful to watch because of the lack of creativity in the play calls and the inability of Matt Nagy and the coaching staff to put the players in positions they could succeed. The Bears did trade up to pick their franchise quarterback in Justin Fields who could be the spark the Bears need to become a playoff contender. 

Strength of Schedule

The matchups are not favorable for Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears this upcoming season. The Bears have the 3rd toughest strength of schedule heading into the season and in the first game they have to go up against Jalen Ramsey and the Los Angeles Rams, who ranked allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL allowed last season. They also have to face off against Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers squads who all ranked in the top 10 in fewest passing yards allowed last season. Fields doesn’t only play against juggernaut passing defense as he does get some cupcakes in the Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks. All of those teams were notorious for their swiss cheese passing defenses and all of those teams ranked top 10 for most passing yards allowed in the league. This should be a roller-coaster season for Fields as he might get thrust into the starting quarterback position sooner than people think.