Kenny Golladay Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking– WR14, ADP– 4.1, Auction Value ($200)– $23, Team– DET, Bye– 5

NFL Analyst Matt Miller stated that he has “big hopes for Kenny Golladay” entering 2019. We’ll see if Golladay can prove him right with many people dubbing him one of the biggest sleepers of the year.

The Detroit Lions offense ranked 25th in the league despite placing 12th in offensive plays. Quarterback Matthew Stafford was decent at the position though ranked near the middle of the pack. He helped the Lions rank 20th in passing yards and 22nd in passing TDs. They ran a 3 receiver scheme with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Bruce Ellington/TJ Jones getting the majority of snaps. Of the four, Golladay was the only one who was a 1,000 yard receiver.

Upside

Kenny Golladay has the makings of a very good receiver with his volume of targets. He received 20.9% of targets and was only one of two receivers to play at least 15 games. This year, he should expect the same amount of targets as he will re-enter as the Lions’ WR1. With only 5 receiving TDs last season, there’s potential to be even more productive and get targeted more in the end zone. His upside would be another season of roughly 1,200 receiving yards and 8 TD catches.

Floor

With fellow top wideout, Marvin Jones, playing a full season, Golladay might not have the chance to retain the same amount of targets last season. When both were healthy, Jones averaged 6.89 targets compared to Golladay’s 7.93. In fact, Jones was able to haul in the same amount of TD passes while playing 6 fewer games. There’s a possibility Jones takes away his touches and thus, Golladay’s floor is an 800 yard receiver with 5 TDs. Though not elite, those stats would still warrant a very serviceable receiver.

What to Expect

Golladay is currently ranked as the 14th wide receiver off the board and holds an auction value of $23. He’s currently projected to have 4th round draft value. While some may believe Golladay is the next big wide receiver or has the ability to break through as the clear WR1 in Detroit’s roster, he simply isn’t worth his ADP or auction value. There’s a cutoff between the 13th wide receiver, Amari Cooper, and 14th in Golladay. In a typically deep position with a bunch of late round sleepers, Golladay isn’t worth the price.

In the same round, you could easily target Julian Edelman and Cooper Kupp or wait for Tyler Lockett and Alshon Jeffrey in later rounds. For similar prices, you could also target A.J. Green or T.Y. Hilton who are both far superior receivers. While Golladay’s potential is certainly there, he doesn’t have the track record to demand this price tag.

This year, expect Marvin Jones’ play and health to dictate the production Golladay receives. Last year, he had a low TD total which limited his value. If he could somehow eclipse double digits in TDs while also gaining 1,200 receiving yards he could become a top 10-15 receiver. He should garner 1,100 yards and 8 TDs which isn’t bag for a WR2.