Lamar Jackson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

The Baltimore Ravens have turned into a fantasy juggernaut on the offensive side. If they add another weapon in the passing game, or Miles Boykin emerges as a real threat, look out for possibly an even more efficient year. Lamar Jackson posted a QB1 season, and had the third most fantasy points in a single season. For where he was drafted and what his auction value was last season, Jackson surpassed value and then some. You had to have some very bad luck or poor moves to not dominate your league drafting Jackson late. Looking into 2020, projections are set for another monster year. The big difference is that he is now going within the first two rounds, and is one of the highest auction priced players at the position.

2019 Recap

If Lamar Jackson played the final game of the season, which was not needed, he would have been the highest fantasy scoring player in a single season. This would have a year after Patrick Mahomes dropped 429 fantasy points. The next closest fantasy scorer was Dak Prescott at 335 fantasy points, in comparison to Jackson’s 415. Just unreal numbers. Jackson ranked 26th in passing attempts, 22nd in passing yards, but first in passing touchdowns. Obviously he dominated in the rushing department, with 176 rushing attempts, and his rushing yards were more than Kyler Murray and Josh Allen combined.

2020 Projections

Jackson’s projections come in as another historic fantasy type season. The rushing production will be there, and hitting 1,000 yards at a projection is possible. I also believe we see him air it out a little bit more, and passing yards go up a bit as well. Even with a dip down in overall touchdown numbers, his production puts him as QB1. Even if you temper expectations a bit and put his passing numbers down to where he was last season with closer to 28-30 touchdowns, adding in the rushing production still puts him as a top quarterback.

Highest PFF Rushing Grade in 2019

1. Lamar Jackson – 90.5
2. Nick Chubb – 90.3
3. Josh Jacobs – 86.9 pic.twitter.com/r1rvnEJODb

— PFF (@PFF) February 25, 2020

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Mid-Late 2nd Round

Auction Price: $29

We saw this last year, where Patrick Mahomes was drafted miles ahead of other quarterbacks because of his 2018 season. His 2019 season was still strong, even missing a few games, but his value for his ADP and auction price was not what you wanted. Jackson’s rushing ability for me makes him a safer bet of hitting that draft value for this year.

Floor

On a weekly basis, outside of the one Pittsburgh game, you were getting strong production from Jackson. His weekly floor is insanely stable, and a lot of that comes with his rushing production. Because he could give you 7-8 fantasy points on average just solely off rushing numbers, he was already surpassing quarterbacks who had to throw two touchdowns to get that mark or throw for 200 yards. In the scale of a season, there might not be a higher floor option. It is the first reason he is being drafted so highly.

Ceiling

After Patrick Mahomes put up a historical season in 2018, Lamar Jackson followed up with the third most fantasy points in a season. Obviously putting a ceiling higher than what he did last season would be insane. An offense performing at such a high efficiency rate is always tough to project for multiple years as well, but I don’t believe we see that big of a drop off from what they did last year. A slight tick down in his rushing yards occur a bit if his passing yards are going to go up, which is what I project to happen. If you are looking at quarterback, Mahomes and Jackson have the highest ceiling of any quarterback. It is the other half of the reason why they are taken so highly.

Baltimore Ravens Offense

Baltimore was the top scoring offense last season, which shouldn’t come at any surprise to anyone. They averaged 33.2 points per game, and were second in yards per game at 407.6 yards per game. The lethal ground game and ability to get ahead of their opponents led them to be a run heavy offense in part with their roster construction. They averaged 206 rushing yards per game, and 201 passing yards. Baltimore had an average possession of 34:47.

John Harbaugh was extremely aggressive, which paid off for the Ravens. They didn’t play at a high pace, but that isn’t a negative when it comes to their fantasy production. I will update throughout the offseason if Baltimore adds any weapons in the passing game. Mark Andrews broke through, and when Marquise Brown was healthy, he was a strong deep threat. Mark Ingram also played well out of the backfield in the receiving game. The Ravens had a top ten offensive line, and have kept that intact over the offseason.

Strength Of Schedule

When looking at their own division, both Cincinnati and Cleveland ranked in the bottom half in pass defense. Cincinnati of course being the worst of the two, where Cleveland was closer to league average. Pittsburgh had the third best pass defense last season, and will be carrying most of the same names again. Jackson had his lowest scoring game against Pittsburgh last season, and didn’t play the final week of the season against them due to rest. He crushed the other two divisional opponents.

Baltimore actually has a fairly soft pass defense schedule outside of the division as well. They will play the AFC South. Jacksonville’s secondary is now decimated after everyone left, and ranked 22nd anyway in 2019. Tennessee ranked 21st, while Houston ranked 26th. Indianapolis ranked 19th as well. This is a great division to play right now if you are a quarterback. The Ravens will also play the NFC East. The Giants and Redskins both ranked inside the bottom ten in pass defense. Philadelphia’s secondary is in rough shape so far this offseason, and Dallas let their best cornerback go. Outside of that they face New England and Kansas City as their other two games. He had no issues with fantasy production last season against them.