Leonard Fournette Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking– RB14, ADP– 3.01, Auction Value ($200)– $32, Team– Jax, BYE– 10

The Jacksonville Jaguars have officially cut ties with Blake Bortles and moved into the Nick Foles era. Whether a similar situation occurs with Leonard Fournette remains to be seen. After a solid rookie season, Fournette regressed badly last year, suffering from inefficient production, injuries, and off the field issues. This will likely be the season that determines whether Fournette can live up to his billing as the 4th pick. For what it’s worth, former NFL player and current analyst is pretty high on Fournette. It’s not hard to see why, as Fournette is an elite athlete. He just hasn’t been able to put it together yet.

https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/1143935991675158529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1143935991675158529&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fjaguarswire.usatoday.com%2F2019%2F06%2F27%2Fnate-burleson-of-gmfb-expecting-a-hell-of-a-year-for-leonard-fournette%2F

 

 

 

The Jaguars offense is likely going through some major changes, with the most notable being the signing of Nick Foles. Fournette has played through Bortles’ mediocrity for his entire career, so Nick Foles should be an interesting change of pace for him. Jacksonville was a dismal second to last in total points last year, and they’ll be expecting everyone to step up their game. Fournette is perhaps the one with the most at stake, so this season will be a defining one for him.

FPTS 2018	GP	ATT	RUSH YDS	YDS/ATT	ATT/G	100+ YDS	RUSH TD	REC	TGTS/G	REC YDS	REC TDS	YAHOO FPTS/G
109.4	8	113	439	3.3	16.6	0	5	22	3.3	185	1	13.7

Upside

Fournette was obviously selected so high in the draft for a reason. He torched defenders at LSU, and he’s had a decent amount of success in the NFL. Most notably, he ran for over 1000 yards despite missing 3 games in the regular season two years ago, and he scored 4 touchdowns in the playoffs. Even in his best season, Blake Bortles was still turnover prone and inconsistent. Defenders were able to hone in on the running game and make life harder for the running backs. If Foles proves to be a substantial improvement Fournette may find himself with a less crowded box than normal. His ceiling is a 1300 yard season with 12 touchdowns.

Floor

Fournette has had injury problems and off the field issues that have hampered his ability to perform. If he can’t shake those off, he might find his job in jeopardy. His relationship with Tom Coughlin has proved testy as Coughlin criticized Fournette’s character at the end of last season. Simply put, Fournette is in the dog house. If Foles proves to be not much of an upgrade over Bortles, and Fournette can’t put his problems behind him, he may not stick with the team for long. Another problem filled, injury riddled season would likely result in a dismal 500 yard, 5 touchdown season.

What to Expect

Fournette is currently ranked as the 14th best running back and has an auction value of $32. He’s expected to be drafted in the 3rd round. Frankly put, this would be an extreme overpay for Fournette’s services. Considering he’s missed 11 games in 2 seasons, giving up this much for him is a mistake. Even when he does play, he’s been very inconsistent. He hasn’t even been able to have an average yards per rushing attempt of 4 or more in his two seasons. When considering there are players like Derrick Henry and Phillip Lindsay that are much cheaper and provide more value, it makes no sense to get Fournette this high.

Fournette is at best a solid RB2 who also comes with some serious baggage. His position on the team appears to be tenuous right now. If Fournette can’t get out of this downward spiral, he might end up getting benched or even released. I don’t believe that’ll happen but it’s still a possibility. I think he’ll play around 11 games this season and rush for 750 yards, with 6 rushing touchdowns.