Marquise Brown Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Introduction

marquise brownIn his rookie season, Marquise “Hollywood Brown” made a name for himself. While small in frame – 5’9’’ 170 Lbs. – Hollywood made it up in toughness and was a huge part of the Baltimore Raven’s success in 2019. Heading into his second year, I expect him to improve his route running, technique, feel for the game, and football IQ. He and Lamar Jackson showed great chemistry and look like players that will grow together for years to come.

While Brown lit up the touchdown category, the Ravens offensive scheme limited his potential. With such a run-heavy offense – second in the league behind the San Francisco 49ers, Brown played in an offense where he was not the focal point. Similar to guys like Deebo Samuel, Brown’s numbers in 2019 aren’t predictive of what he is truly capable of doing on the field.

2019 Recap

REC REC YDS REC TDS FPTS FPPG
4658471418.89

The 2019 season was great for Hollywood Brown. He displayed flashes of greatness and was a consistent deep threat despite his height, similar to his time at The University of Oklahoma. He quickly became one of Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets making key plays at crucial times on play-action passes. He finished the season with 46 receptions for 584 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Fantasy-wise, Hollywood was blockbuster finishing with 141 fantasy points for 8.89 fantasy points per game.

2020 Projections

REC REC YDSREC TDSFPTS FPPG
64787617510.93

I fully expect Brown to build upon is 2019 rookie season and join the conversation as one of the premier young receivers in the game. Lineups tends to agree, projecting the receiver to finish with 64 receptions for 787 yards and six receiving touchdowns. Fantasy-wise, Lineups projects the receiver to finish with 175 fantasy points for 10.9 fantasy points per game. I think Brown could have more touchdowns giving the Ravens not addressing the receiver position in the draft or free agency but would be satisfied getting this kind of production at the flex position.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 71.8 WR: 33
Auction Value $9

Marquise Brown is currently ranked as the 33-best wide receiver in this class at an ADP of 71.8. I actually don’t mind his ADP and ranking – I appreciate the fact that he’s ahead of guys in terrible situations like Terry McLaurin and Julian Edelman. I also appreciate that he’s not being overvalued over guys like AJ Green, Robert Woods, and AJ Brown. At this ADP, you are essentially getting Brown to be your number two or flex receiver. I prefer the flex position for Brown but cannot hate fantasy owners picking him up as a number two riskier receiver if they are secure with running back and quarterback positions.

That being said, I would take JuJu Smith-Schuster (76.8) ahead of Hollywood Brown. If Brown is still on the board around the late 70s/early 80s, I would pick him up in a heartbeat. Having a deep threat DeSean Jackson type of impact on your team to fill a flex position looks like a winning formula to me.

Floor

Injuries are a concern with Hollywood Brown given his small frame and foot injury in his rookie season. At 170 pounds, he won’t take hits too well especially playing the wide receiver position. As a result, fantasy owners must continuously pay attention to with Hollywood Brown. However, I have seen Brown hitting the weight room this offseason so it’s possible he will start the season around 180 pounds. Outside of the injury concern, he should improve at his technique, route running, and IQ, all of which will increase his production.

My only other concern is the Ravens run-heavy scheme. With the addition of running back J.K. Dobbins to complement Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson being a huge part of the running game, I’m unsure whether Brown will get the targets that other receivers in this range receiver. However, it must be noted that Brown is the definitive number one receiver on this squad. This should offset the disadvantage of playing in a run-first scheme.

Ceiling

Brown does have a high ceiling. Lamar Jackson could become an even better passer. Brown could add some bulk, helping his yards after catch ability. The Raven’s offensive line is even stronger this season. Also, with Hollywood Brown being the team’s number one receiver, Brown will consistently get passing targets. I’m not worried about a huge sophomore slump for Brown. If Lamar Jackson takes another leap, Brown could have a 1000 yard season.

Ravens Offense

Baltimore RavensThe Ravens Offense consists of Lamar Jackson at quarterback, running-back duo J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Ingram, Tight-end Mark Andrews, and receivers Hollywood Brown, Devin Duvernay, and Willie Snead. Coupled with a strong offensive line, the Ravens have a versatile offense. The primary weak spot for this offensive unit is the wide-receiver position. However, this works to Brown’s advantage as he only has to compete with Mark Andrews as Lamar Jackson’s number one option.

The knack against taking Brown higher is because of the Raven’s offensive scheme. The Ravens utilize a run-heavy offense meaning that their running backs will combine for 35+ carries and Jackson will also finish with 10+ carries. This leaves limited opportunities in the passing game. While Brown could get a majority of those passing targets, the limited passing opportunities put pressure on whether he can achieve maximize the opportunities that he receives. This is something to look out for early in the season.

Strength of Schedule

The Ravens have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. The only strong defenses they face are the Titans, Steelers (x2), Patriots, and arguably the Cowboys. The rest of their schedule faces off against teams that struggled to contain the run or have atrocious secondaries. Regardless, Lamar Jackson and company will have no issue exploiting these team’s weaknesses on the field.

Final Thoughts

Overall, The Ravens have the most complete roster in the league. However, this could hurt Brown from reaching his potential in terms of production as this lethal defense could allow the Ravens to control games via the run. Despite this negative Brown will have a terrific season if healthy as he’s arguably the number one receiving option on this team. Lastly, as he enters his second season in the NFL, I can’t imagine him not improving his route running, technique, and understanding for the game.

2020 Fantasy Football Player Outlooks
  
Miles has participated in fantasy football and baseball for nearly 7 years with an appreciation for the level of fan engagement it brings to the game. In his free time, Miles is an avid runner who also enjoys poker, cooking, and watching movies.

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