Marvin Jones Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Introduction

Inconsistency has been the name for Marvin Jones throughout his entire NFL career. The eight-year pro has ranged from as low as 500 receiving yards to as high as 1100 during his past five years. Injuries have also plagued this man’s career as he has only been fully healthy for three total seasons. At 30 years old, I believe these problems that plagued him throughout his entire career will only continue to plague him in the future.

On the bright side, Marvin Jones can still provide fantasy owners with value. The Lions are a pass-heavy offense led by the gunslinger himself, Matthew Stafford. Regardless of injury and age, Marvin Jones has developed chemistry with Stafford, especially in the red zone, and will still continue to get targets. Furthermore, his low ADP makes up for his injury and age concern. Jones could shock people and in certain matchups, it makes total sense to insert Jones into your starting lineups.

2019 Recap

Marvin Jones only played in 13 games last season and 9 the season before. His last full season was in 2017 where he caught 61 passes for 1101 yards, a career-high. In his predominately healthy 2019 season, Jones finished with 62 receptions for 779 yards in 9 touchdowns. Jones had a huge impact in standard leagues and could continue to do as he remains a great red-zone target for Stafford. Fantasy-wise, Jones finished with 188 points for an average 11.75 points per game.

2020 Projections

I expect Marvin Jones to put a similar statistical season to 2019. He’s the number 2 wide receiver and second option on this team so I do expect him to get his touches. That being said, it’s hard to predict Jones having more than 65 catches given he’s never done it in his career. Also, the Lions have enough receiving and drafted DeAndre Swift, a running back that can catch out of the backfield. These factors will limit Jones’s ability to have a 1000-yard season.

Lineups agrees projecting the receiving to finish with exactly 65 receptions for 892 yards and 6 touchdowns. Lineups is counting his 2019 season where he put up 9 touchdowns as an anomaly. I tend to agree. The vast amount of new weapons on this squad makes it very difficult for me to see him getting a majority of the red zone targets.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 95.6 WR: 33
Auction Value: $14

Marvin Jones is expected to have a similar statistical season to Deebo Samuel but at 50 draft positions lower. Perhaps it is the lack of name recognition with Marvin Jones or the fact that fans aren’t watching the Detroit Lions. Regardless, Marvin Jones is being vastly undervalued given how Matthew Stafford’s style of play, a pass-heavy scheme, and the experience he brings at the position.

While his injury history does affect his draft value, I still think he’s worth taking over at a higher ADP. I think he’s in a better situation than John Brown, a better player than Sterling Shepard, and less injury-prone than Will Fuller – all of which have higher ADPs. I see Jones as a realistic third wide-receiver/flex receiver for most teams. If fantasy owners can wait till the ninth round and get Jones’s expected production, they will thrive in their leagues. Marvin Jones is just that good that late. At 95.6, you’re talking about getting Jones in the eight-round, which at that position gives you the opportunity to shore up your running game with three elite backs. I’m definitely a fan of owners who select Jones at this ADP or even at an ADP in the early 80s.

WRs I love in each portion of the draft:

Late-early-rounds: Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Robert Woods

Early-mid-rounds: McLaurin, Parker

Mid-rounds: Gallup, Boyd

Early-late-rounds: Marvin Jones, Slayton, Edelman (when he falls to the 9/10th round)

Late rounds: Reagor, Harry

— Fantasy Football Addict (@That_FF_Addict) June 24, 2020

Floor

Marvin Jones’s injury history is working against him here. I can’t have too high of a floor for a guy that can’t stay healthy an entire season and is over the age of 30. However, when healthy, he has been a go-to weapon for Stafford and a calming presence to the offense. He brings leadership and experience to the table while offering points in standard leagues from his high touchdown rate. Because of these factors, I believe there are other safer bets, but Jones should have a higher floor in standard leagues.

Ceiling

Jones does have a high ceiling. When healthy, he’s capable of putting up an 1100 yard 10 touchdown season. If he stays healthy and the Lions offense clicks, I could definitely see Jones outplaying his projections. My hesitation comes from the multitude of receiving targets at Stafford’s disposal as well as his inconsistency in putting up elite numbers. One elite season doesn’t make you an elite player and I predict Jones to produce secondary receiver numbers.

Lions Offense

The Lions offense is loaded with talent. They finally fixed some of their offensive line deficiencies and put high draft capital into running back DeAndre Swift, who should immediately make this team a more balanced offense. T.J Hockenson is an emerging tight end threat scheduled to have a breakout season. Lastly, the wide-receiver group is loaded with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola. With all these weapons, its tough to see Jones get an abundance of passing targets. Also, if Patricia switches to a more run-heavy offense, expect Jones having a hard time eclipsing 1000 receiving yards.

Strength of Schedule

The Lions have a top schedule given they play in the NFC North. The NFC North has three great defensive units led by the Bears, Packers, and Vikings. Those six matchups coupled with games against the Saints, Titans, and threatening Redskins front seven pose a difficult challenge for this Lions offense. This could also hurt Jones’s production.

Final Thoughts

While Jones has a few things working against him: schedule, roster depth, age, injury, I think he’s worth the risk in the eight-round. He has a knack for football and produced well when healthy. He’s a red-zone target for Matthew Stafford which could boost his value as a flex wide receiver. I think Jones is a solid investment for fantasy owners at that ADP.