Michael Gallup Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Michael Gallup is entering his third professional season and seems primed for the traditional third-year breakout. Since being drafted out of Colorado State in the 3rd round of the 2018 NFL draft by the Cowboys, Gallup has produced 99 catches for 1,614 yards and eight touchdowns in 30 career games. In a Dallas offense that features Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper, as well as recent first-round pick CeeDee Lamb, will there be enough offensive touches to go around for Gallup to produce big numbers in 2020?

2019 Recap

RANKPLAYERTEAM
1Saquon BarkleyNYG
2Christian McCaffreyCAR
3Ezekiel ElliottDAL
4Alvin KamaraNO
5Dalvin CookMIN
6Derrick HenryTEN
7Nick ChubbCLE
8Joe MixonCIN
9Aaron JonesGB
10Austin EkelerLAC
11Kenyan DrakeARI
12Josh JacobsLV
13Miles SandersPHI
14Mark IngramBAL
15Melvin GordonDEN
16Kareem HuntCLE
17Todd GurleyATL
18Le’Veon BellNYJ
19Phillip LindsayDEN
20Leonard FournetteJAX
21David JohnsonHOU
22James ConnerPIT
23Devin SingletaryBUF
24Chris CarsonSEA
25James WhiteNE
26Raheem MostertSF
27Duke JohnsonHOU
28David MontgomeryCHI
29Marlon MackIND
30Sony MichelNE
31Tarik CohenCHI
32Derrius GuiceWAS
33Tevin ColemanSF
34Matt BreidaMIA
35Jordan HowardMIA
36Jamaal WilliamsGB
37Latavius MurrayNO
38Justin JacksonLAC
39Alexander MattisonMIN
40Nyheim HinesIND
41Tony PollardDAL
42Rashaad PennySEA
43Ronald JonesTB
44Adrian PetersonWAS
45Chris ThompsonJAX
46Giovani BernardCIN
47Damien WilliamsKC
48Jalen RichardLV
49Kerryon JohnsonDET
50Rex BurkheadNE

In 2019, Michael Gallup earned a 19% share of Dak Prescott’s career-high pass attempts. He saw double-digit targets on five occasions in 2019 and went over 100 yards four times with another two games of 98 yards each. Gallup was on the field for 75% of Dallas’s offensive snaps in 2019, up from 2020, and he finished as the WR18 with his per-game fantasy average, just behind Cowboys teammate Amari Cooper.

2020 Projections

RANKPLAYERTEAM
1Michael ThomasNO
2Julio JonesATL
3DeAndre HopkinsARI
4Mike EvansTB
5Tyreek HillKC
6Chris GodwinTB
7Davante AdamsGB
8Amari CooperDAL
9Kenny GolladayDET
10Keenan AllenLAC
11Allen RobinsonCHI
12Odell Beckham Jr.CLE
13Robert WoodsLAR
14Stefon DiggsBUF
15JuJu Smith-SchusterPIT
16Tyler LockettSEA
17D.J. CharkLAR
18T.Y. HiltonIND
19Adam ThielenMIN
20D.J. MooreCAR
21Jarvis LandryCLE
22A.J. BrownTEN
23Cooper KuppLAR
24Calvin RidleyATL
25Courtland SuttonPIT
26DeVante ParkerMIA
27Terry McLaurinWAS
28Mike WilliamsLAC
29D.K. MetcalfSEA
30Michael GallupDAL
31John BrownBUF
32Deebo SamuelSF
33Tyler BoydCIN
34Emmanuel SandersNO
35Sterling ShepardNYG
36Marquise BrownBAL
37A.J. GreenCIN
38Marvin JonesDET
39Larry FitzgeraldARI
40Darius SlaytonNYG
41Curtis SamuelCAR
42Diontae JohnsonPIT
43Brandin CooksHOU
44Mecole HardmanKC
45Christian KirkARI
46Golden TateNYG
47Robby AndersonCAR
48Jamison CrowderNYJ
49Alshon JefferyPHI
50Tyrell WilliamsLV

Seventy receptions would be a career-high for Gallup, although I don’t see a massive increase in targets for him with the addition of CeeDee Lamb to the offense. The Cowboys should be running a lot of 3-wide sets this year, though, so Gallup should see plenty of playing time in what figures to be one of the higher-octane offenses in football. I have him down for 118 targets, a slight increase from last season’s mark of 113.

Average Draft Position

ADP: 7.2

Auction Value: $10

Gallup’s current ADP places him in low-end WR3, high-end WR4 range, which I think is a tad lower than where he should be coming off the board. His baseline is likely as a high-end WR3, and he has the potential to be much better than that in 2020. After Dak Prescott signs his long-term contract, Gallup’s ADP could start to rise in the summer. However, Lamb’s introduction to the offense will likely keep it in a very manageable range.

Floor

Michael Gallup’s career numbers projected out to a 16-game pace would put him at about 53 catches for 860 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers would have put him outside the top-36 receivers in 2019, but with the vacated targets in Dallas, his production should be higher than that. Gallup certainly benefitted from the Cowboys running the 7th-most offensive plays in 2019, which is a number that could decrease in 2020. Still, I have a bit of a dip in pass attempts from Prescott baked into those numbers above, and Gallup’s catch percentage figures to increase as he develops his receiving talent. Amari Cooper is the only clear-cut receiver on the team who will be more targeted than Gallup, and Cooper has a history of injuries that suggest he won’t be on the field for all 16 games this season.

Ceiling

The ceiling for Gallup is likely somewhere in the range of 80 catches, 1,200 yards, and eight touchdowns, which is nothing to scoff at. Jason Witten and Randall Cobb combined for seven receiving touchdowns in 2019 and are no longer on the team so that Gallup could have some intriguing red-zone potential, but Dallas should still be a run-first team in that regard with Zeke on the roster. Gallup’s career catch percentage is unimpressive at about 55%, but he showed improvement in that area toward the end of last season. He should benefit from Prescott’s accuracy at quarterback as well.

Dallas Cowboys Offense

Dallas CowboysThe Cowboys ran on the 12th-highest percentage of plays in the NFL last year, which could increase next season with Mike McCarthy as the new head coach. Dallas had Football Outsider’s 2nd-best run-blocking line in 2019, and with Ezekiel Elliott at running back, this team would be wise to try to grind the clock out on the ground. Dak Prescott set a career-high in touchdowns with 30 last season, which could fall back to Earth this year as his previous three seasons he threw for 22 or 23 scores. The Cowboys are an excellent all-around team talent-wise, and figure to contend for the division title in the NFC East, so they may not need to air it out as frequently in 2020. The team certainly has a hole in terms of the middle-of-the-field targets that Cobb and Witten excelled at – Gallup has the opportunity to take on that role, although CeeDee Lamb will also be heavily involved. It’s unclear how much chemistry he’ll be able to develop with Prescott during a bizarre offseason, but Gallup won’t just fall off the map even with his addition. If anything, this trio of wide receivers will only help get easier targets for the other guys.

Strength Of Schedule

The NFC East should present some friendly matchups to opposing wide receivers this season as the Redskins, Eagles, and Giants all ranked among the teams with the ten-most fantasy points against by the receiver position. They also ranked among Football Outsider’s bottom-half pass defenses in 2019. The Cowboys will take on the AFC North, which features the Ravens and Steelers who both had top-five pass defenses last season per Football Outsiders. The Bengals had one of the worst pass defenses in 2019, though, and the Browns ranked middle-of-the-pack. The Cowboys will also have to play the NFC West this year. That division features the 49ers, who had the 2nd-best pass defense, and the Rams, with the 10th-best pass defense. The Seahawks and Cardinals were on the other end of the spectrum, though, ranking among the bottom half of the league in fantasy points against by wide receivers. The Cowboys will also play the Vikings, who saw their 3 top cornerbacks from last season leave this offseason and the Falcons who have a dreadful secondary. So it’s pretty much a mixed bag for the Cowboys, with their in-division foes doing plenty to provide soft spots on their schedule. The beautiful thing for Dallas is even the teams with tougher defenses that they will play feature elite offensive play, which could lead to shootout game scripts and garbage time points.

Bottom Line

Michael Gallup is another player who is primed for a third-year breakout, and while he doesn’t have the talent of Courtland Sutton or the perfect situation of Calvin Ridley, he should be able to produce in an offense that will need his help. His baseline is as a high-end WR3, but he has the potential to be much better than that this season and if you can get him after the 6th round, you should be thrilled to put his upside on your fantasy roster.

 

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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