Michael Thomas Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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The New Orleans Saints had a major draft hit on Michael Thomas, and it certainly helps that he has Drew Brees throwing to him. The Saints passing game has always brought fantasy value, and we have a first round fantasy draft pick on our hands with Thomas. Finishing inside the top ten for wide receiver scoring has been a popular landing spot for Thomas since entering the league, and 2018 was no different. Thomas was one of the more efficient wideouts, and we can chuck that up to Brees being his throwing partner once again.

2018 Fantasy Recap

Michael Thomas finished as a WR7 heading in 2018, and has not finished outside of WR10 since coming into the league. Finishing with 147 targets, that was good for 9th best in the league. He also crushed in receptions, finishing with 125. His catch rate was over 80%, and Thomas has developed a real connection with Brees. Thomas had nine touchdowns, and averaged the 7th most fantasy points per game. While the Saints offense has been more balanced of late, the efficiency in the passing game is something we can rely on for Thomas’ success. We have seen it over the last few years, but Thomas is overall one of the better options.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Looking at 2019, Michael Thomas and this overall offense gives us no reason to believe he finishes anything lower than 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He should flirt with 150 targets, and the efficiency will push him over 100 receptions yet again. He finished with nine touchdowns last season, and while he hasn’t had a huge touchdown jump, a lot of that is because the offense is so spread out. Thomas won’t quite have the same upside in touchdowns as a Hopkins or Adams, but he is right in this range of being a top five wideout.

If you are looking for a touchdown increase, I am not sure it is coming. His red zone targets are not in line with other options, and the Saints have no problem running the ball now. His receptions and yardage will likely carry his production. Keep looking at Thomas as an elite top five wide receiver.

Who are the most efficient fantasy players over the past two seasons?

Fantasy points scored over expectation:

1. Alvin Kamara (+162.1)
2. Kareem Hunt (+129.0)
3. Tyreek Hill (+126.5)
4. Michael Thomas (+97.2)

Read more here: https://t.co/3xGdFd0ESl

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 3, 2019

Draft & Auction Value

We have Michael Thomas coming off the board as the fourth wideout, and also finishing the season inside the top five. Thomas is worthy of a late first round pick, and you are getting a very safe floor from the New Orleans wideout. This is a very bland overview because Thomas fits his ADP and draft value. However, there are a few names like OBJ and JuJu Smith-Schuster who have some insane upside being taken a few picks behind him. Adam Thielen scored one point less than Thomas in 2018, and is going two rounds later. He is another one where I love to get, but won’t be bummed given how deep the position is.