Mike Gesecki Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Introduction

mike gesickiA former second-round pick in 2018, Mike Gesecki emerged as a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent season for the Dolphins. The Dolphins were not expected to compete but unexpectedly, Gesecki proved capable of being a number one tight end for the team. Gesecki excelled as a secondary receiver catching balls on the inside as a slot receiver. Gesecki’s an amazing athlete which showed in his speed and ability to get open in any situation. I love his yards after catch potential which will show itself in fantasy. Overall, I’m expecting a much better season for Gesecki given the Dolphins retaining Fitzpatrick and the chemistry they built together. The only thing that could hurt his value is if Tua Tagovailoa becomes the starter, which would force the two to find their own chemistry.

2019 Recap

REC REC YDS RED TDS FPTS FPPG
5157051308.5

Gesecki finished 2019 with one of the most productive seasons at the tight end position the organization has ever seen. Gesecki finished 7th all-time amongst tight ends in receiving yards for the Dolphins, finishing with 570 reception yards for 5 touchdowns. For receptions, Gesecki was a consistent target for Fitzpatrick, collecting 51 throughout the season. Fantasy-wise, the emerging tight end finished with 130 fantasy points for 8.5 points per game. He was Fitzpatricks’ number one red zone threat and played well under the slot. At 24, the tight-end has stayed healthy and now that he is in the right scheme, he will only improve as the years go by.

2020 Projections

REC REC YDS REC TDS FPTSFPPG
5357841368.6

I’m projecting Gesecki to build upon his season but no by much. The Dolphins have major questions with their offensive line. Also, weapons Albert Wilson and Preston Williams will return healthy, potentially limiting Gesecki’s targets. In addition, Ryan Fitzpatrick may lose his starting job to rookie Tua Tagovailoa, who will most likely have rookie struggles. Coupled with a poor offensive line, he could struggle to get the ball to his receivers, limiting Gesecki’s opportunities.

Lineups agrees projecting the tight-end to finish with 53 receptions for 578 reception yards and 4 touchdowns. Fantasy-wise, this would translate to 136 fantasy points for 8.6 points per game. By no means is this an unproductive season. I very much believe this is more of Gesecki’s floor – I don’t expect him to get less than 500 yards or 4 touchdowns. It’s hard to project Gisecki given his production varied throughout the season. For instance, all five of his touchdown receptions came in the last six games. Also, even though he was the number two option, he only had three games above four receptions. You project Gisecki to get better, but it’s hard to determine by how much.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 136  TE: 11
Auction Value: $7

However, his current ADP makes him a great value pick. At an ADP of 125.5, Gisecki is currently the 16th tight-end taken per fantasy draft. He’s currently slated behind tight-ends, David Njoku, Dallas Goedert, Jimmy Graham, and O.J. Howard, all of which I think will have worse seasons than Gesecki. Part of his low ADP comes from the lack of name recognition and part of it comes from the fear of the Dolphin’s offensive situation. While the latter is a valid concern, I think owners are making a mistake taking these guys before Gisecki. Gisecki became the red-zone target for Fitzpatrick in 2019, showing the potential to score 6+ touchdowns in 2020. Gisecki should be drafted in the top-ten for tight-ends. I don’t see it as a reach to draft Gisecki in the 80s, he has the potential to truly elevate his game.

Floor

As previously mentioned, I think Gisecki’s floor is currently near his 2020 fantasy projections. I don’t see him having a significantly worse season than he had in 2019, nor do I see injuries being a huge concern. For that reason, I project Gesecki to put up similar if not better numbers than 2019, which would make him a high floor tight-end pick. At best he’s a number 2 receiver on this team with slot capability while at worse he’s a number three/four receiver, both of which will still get opportunities to catch the ball. At his current ADP, Gesecki is a safe choice for both standard and PPR leagues.

Ceiling

At his best, Gisecki is the number one option on this team. If Davante Parker regresses, which is highly likely given his career sample size, I could see Gisecki making a major impact on this squad. His ceiling is also high after not missing a single game in his first two games. Not having an injury concern should automatically boost his stock above the likes of Jimmy Graham and David Njoku, guys that can never stay healthy. At his best, I see Gisecki averaging 65 receptions for 700+ yards.

Dolphins Offense

Miami DolphinsThe Dolphins have a lot of moving pieces, especially on the offensive line. Both offensive tackles are rookies so I expect some growing pains to come in the form of sacks and quarterback pressures. Also, a weak offensive line could disrupt the chemistry established between Fitzpatrick and receivers, hurting Gesecki’s production. This will be a season-long issue that fantasy owners should continue to monitor.

Otherwise, I like Gesecki’s fit in this offensive. He seemed to work well under offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, both of whom are returning in 2020. He has the support of the coaching staff and his quarterback, so I see no reason why he won’t thrive with the Dolphins.

Strength of Schedule

The Dolphins have a tough schedule figuring they play in a tough, defensive division. Matchups in the Bills, Patriots, and Jets each twice while also playing the 49ers, Broncos, and Chargers. Most of these games happen early in the season, so fantasy owners should also look out for teams trading Gesecki early one – I expect him to have a monster second half of the season against the Raiders, Bengals, Cardinals, and Chiefs.

Final Thoughts

Overall, I am high on drafting Gesecki given his ADP. I think he brings great value to a position hard to find value. While he may struggle early as the offensive line gets used to playing with each other and the Dolphins play tough opponents, the second half of the season looks way more promising for Gesecki’s production. Fantasy owners should consider picking up Gesecki in the 80s given his production is slated to be top 10 amongst tight-ends.

2020 Fantasy Football Player Outlooks
  
Miles has participated in fantasy football and baseball for nearly 7 years with an appreciation for the level of fan engagement it brings to the game. In his free time, Miles is an avid runner who also enjoys poker, cooking, and watching movies.

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