Mitchell Trubisky Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Ranking: QB16, ADP: 13.08, Auction Value($200): $21, Team: Chi, BYE: Week 6

In a strange turn of events, Chicago Bears Mitchell Trubisky has become the most popular 2019 MVP bet. Considering he wasn’t even a top 10 player at his position last year, this is a little surprising. Still, Trubisky is quite young and did show encouraging growth this past season. If he makes another leap, that bet could end up paying off big. This will only increase the pressure on Trubisky, as the Bears will be expecting him to make yet another leap in his third season.

Mitchell Trubisky emerges as most popular 2019 NFL MVP bet. 💰 https://t.co/wRAAO3SEt2 pic.twitter.com/0uo9y8pWUT

— theScore (@theScore) July 4, 2019

 

 

 

Last year, the Bears defense was the major reason why they won their division, as the offense proved to be quite inconsistent. The offense had a strange season, as despite ranking just 21st in total yardage, they ranked 9th in points per game. To help Trubisky’s growth, the Bears invested quite a bit in the offense last offseason, signing receivers Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, as well as tight end Trey Burton. With the loss of some impactful defensive players, the Bears will need the offense to step up even more if they want to maintain their position as contenders. This means the spotlight will shine even brighter on Trubisky

FPTS 2018	YDS	YDS/Gm	300+ YDS	CMP%	YDS/ATT	YDS/CMP	TD	INT	QBR	Yahoo PTS/GM
275	3223	230.2	4	66.6%	7.4	11.2	24	12	95.4	19.6

Upside

Still an extremely young quarterback, Trubisky’s ceiling remains pretty high. He’s always had the physical tools, and last season we saw Matt Nagy successfully utilize him. He had a solid season as a passer, totaling 24 touchdowns with over 3000 yards. Not only that, but he was also effective in the running game, totaling more than 400 yards with 3 touchdowns to boot. Assuming Cohen and rookie running back David Montgomery can shoulder the load of the running game, Trubisky could end up reaching his ceiling. There’s a possibility that he breaks out as an elite quarterback and throws for over 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns.

Floor

Trubisky was very inconsistent at times last season, and if you take away his Buccaneers game, his stats become messier. There was a reason people were skeptical of the Bears picking him second overall, and those concerns still exist. Trubisky left college as a very raw quarterback, who lacked the mechanics necessary to succeed. Although no one’s doubting his ability as a starting quarterback now, if he wants to become elite he’ll need to get sharper. It also doesn’t help that the Bears don’t have a true WR1. Their receiving core overall is solid, but they don’t have one clear cut star that can carry the passing game for stretches. Just as there’s a decent chance he breaks out, there’s a solid chance he stagnates, and ends up throwing for no more than 3200 yards and 25 touchdowns.

What to Expect

Trubisky is currently rated as the 16th overall player at his position with an average draft position in the 13th round. His auction value with a $200 budget is expected to be $21. Looking at the other players expected to be drafted in the same round, this doesn’t seem like a massive overpay or great bargain. If you really believe in him and Matt Nagy, than paying that much for him is a decent, but not great choice.

If you’re drafting Trubisky to be your starter, you may want to think twice, but he’s more than a worthy backup. Snagging him in the 13th round has the potential to be a steal. Overall, his $21 price tag seems reasonable, although you may want to look for cheaper options just in case. Most people appear to be split on Trubisky, as they either believe he’ll establish himself as a top tier quarterback while others think he’ll stagnate or even backslide this season. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. Expect some more growth and progress from him, but don’t expect him to become an MVP candidate. I expect him to approach but fall just short of the 4000 yard mark, while throwing for 27 or 28 touchdowns to just 10 or 11 interceptions.