Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

While the Cleveland Browns were a hit and miss fantasy team last season, but Nick Chubb was one of the bright spots of the season. Chubb ended up finishing 8th in PPR scoring, and ran for nearly 1,500 yards on the ground. The interesting factor for the season is going to be how Chubb’s numbers look with another body in the passing game, and Kareem Hunt primed for a full year after serving his first half suspension last season. Chubb was a workhorse still on the ground, and should have likely had better numbers if the coaching staff wasn’t taking him off the field at crucial times. He is headed for a late first or early second round ADP this season, which the second round was where he was going last season.

2019 Recap

After producing in a solid rookie season for 2018, Chubb delivered in a full-time role where he was a dominant workhorse. He was in a weird share with Carlos Hyde in 2018, and thankfully that changed. I will touch on this a bit lower, but the second half of the season was still decent for Chubb, but he did give some of his fantasy points and opportunities to Kareem Hunt, who returned in the second half. Most of Chubb’s production came on the ground, where he averaged 5.0 yards per carry and eight touchdowns over 298 attempts. He also nearly finished as the rushing yard champ, but of course Derrick Henry’s second half was dominant.

2020 Projections

Looking at Nick Chubb’s projection for the upcoming season, he can still be a top six-eight back. I believe anything higher would be tough to achieve given the lack of passing work he is likely to see because of Kareem Hunt being there. Chubb’s PPR projections look less than ideal in comparison to other scoring formats, but when we get to those formats, we will be relying on those weekly yards and finding the end zone consistently. For the most part, Chubb is going to be a rock solid volume back that is what we ultimately want in a fantasy football player.

Nick Chubb with Kareem Hunt last year: 13 PPR points per game, 6.8% target share average per game.

Nick Chubb without Kareem Hunt last year: 18.9 PPR points per game, 11.8% target share average per game.https://t.co/LkDfRXQHTe

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) March 16, 2020

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Late First / Early Second Round

Auction Price: $44

Like most draft decisions, we are going to need to evaluate the other options around. I feel a stronger case for evaluating other options with Chubb because he is going around a lot of great names at the end of the first round and early in the second. Drafting for upside this early is usually baked into the price, I do find safety with Chubb, but the upside is my concern. If there are a lack of options I feel have a safer floor and it was a very running back heavy start to the draft or auction, then I might be more in on Chubb. His auction price might also see a significant difference from the backs above him.

Floor

Nick Chubb has a fairly strong floor, where the rushing attempts will be there and the chances of rushing touchdowns will be a plus. He should still get a catch or two per game to help add a few fantasy points to his floor in that regard, but he should be viewed as a more run based back that may not have that same punch in PPR leagues. In half-PPR leagues and standard leagues, Chubb is a better option.

Ceiling

A small issue I have with Nick Chubb’s ceiling this season is the fact that Kareem Hunt is going to see still enough of a workload to keep Chubb from a true fantasy ceiling. Last season Chubb averaged 20.4 PPR points with Hunt suspended, and once Hunt returned, he averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game. He also saw a near 50% drop off in his targets once Hunt returned.

Cleveland Browns Offense

The Browns played at a slightly below average pace last season, and didn’t necessarily control the clock. It was an inefficient offense and they struggled turning the ball over as well. The positive was that Nick Chubb still got his. Cleveland averaged 20.9 points per game and 340.9 yards per game. Both of those ranked 22nd in the league. They ran the ball at a 40% clip which ranked 15th in the league, but they were 22nd in rush attempts per game. Overall Chubb made a lot work in his favor being the efficient back that he is. To conclude most of my concern, is if they start getting Hunt more involved in a full year now, because he was excellent once he came back from suspension.

Strength Of Schedule

Cleveland will have to face two stout defenses and also two offenses that could force a negative game script for Nick Chubb within the division. That is the Steelers and the Ravens. Cincinnati will be a positive matchup the two times they play them, and outside of the division they are going to have their hands full with a few teams. They will face the Titans and the Jets, who had two top ranked run defenses last season. Philadelphia is also a defense that was stout against the run. Overall they face the entire NFC East, and both Washington and Dallas could have more improved defenses against the run in comparison to last season. The Giants were also not a bad run defense either, ranking 7th in DVOA. Cleveland will also face the AFC South, and while Jacksonville is a good matchup, alongside Houston’s struggling defense. Indy could pose to be a tougher matchup. For the most part this is going to be an up and down schedule for Chubb, especially if the Browns defense surrenders a ton of points and don’t give him positive games for him to get volume in. This is where Hunt could easily step in and produce in more passing oriented games.