Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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There was a clear runaway fantasy stud last season, and it was Patrick Mahomes. Finishing with over 5,000 yards 50 touchdowns, Mahomes put up over 400 fantasy points. He is in the midst of a solid Kansas City Chiefs offense, and comes in as the number one ranked quarterback again. This is not another regression article, as you may have seen, because obviously it is tough to follow the best fantasy season ever by a quarterback. Instead we look to what a realistic projection is for 2019, and how he can still put a gap between him and the next quarterback.

2018 Fantasy Recap

2018 was a monster year for quarterbacks, and it had a lot to do with Patrick Mahomes posting the best season of any quarterback for fantasy production. It is also pretty wild that he posted on these numbers, and threw the seventh most attempts in the league. Although, having some long bombs to Tyreek Hill will help. Mahomes led the league in AY/A at 9.6, and averaged 13.3 yards per completion. It was no surprise to see the Chiefs lead the league in yards per game. Kansas City’s offense was divided up more towards the pass, as the yards were dominated by the passing game (77%). I would expect the upcoming season to be relatively similar with a full loss of Kareem Hunt, and even with what should be an improved defense. Overall it was an unreal year for Mahomes, and we will expect him to be a top three QB for many years to come.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Even with a step back into reality, Patrick Mahomes is ranked as our QB1 headed into the year. The difference is that he won’t have a 100 fantasy point gap between him and whoever finishes behind. Ball-parking 40 touchdowns and 4,500 is an excellent QB1 projection, and especially if he adds on more rushing upside. There is a lot of speculation on the Chiefs not having Tyreek Hill, which would be a downgrade for the offense, even if they drafted a similar wideout in Mecole Hardman. Taking away 10-15 touchdowns depending on your projections would still put him over 320 fantasy points. The upside is still there, even though many are talking about the regression. Kansas City put a good core around him, and we know this offense will continue to put up points under Andy Reid.

The Chiefs will have the toughest strength of schedule for opposing quarterbacks this season, and of course playing Los Angeles and Denver twice a year will add to that. This isn’t enough to derail Mahomes and his 2019 fantasy production moving forward. He held his own against the top defensive teams last season.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were the NFL’s top ranked passing attack last season by EPA per pass play!https://t.co/lTkt8WVdSs pic.twitter.com/UHuGZdss6q

— PFF (@PFF) June 23, 2019

Draft & Auction Value

Now we get to the draft and auction value. Patrick Mahomes is going to be the first quarterback off the board. This is a far different scenario from last season where you were debating on taking him late. Mahomes put up over 400 fantasy points season season, and the next closest was 77 points away. With the gap narrowed this year, that gives an easier choice to pass on Mahomes early. The position is deep, and there are a lot of great quarterbacks going a few rounds later. Personally, I won’t be reaching for Mahomes as early as the third round. He won’t be there any later, so it will be tough to get shares. As for auctions, Mahomes is going to come off as the priciest. It is a similar situation where picks/money can be allocated elsewhere.