Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

After posting a historic season, scoring more fantasy points in a single year than anyone in history, Patrick Mahomes skyrocketed in ADP and was the first quarterback taken off the board in 2019. Missing two games, Mahomes finished as QB6. The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl winning season, and have a tremendous coaching staff built to provide fantasy points but an excellent core around Mahomes.  He was a runaway first off the board last season, but with Lamar Jackson’s strong 2019, he has company in terms of being the first quarterback off the board. Mahomes projects for big things again in year three, but getting to that true ceiling again is what most will still want.

2019 Recap

In 2019, Mahomes shot out of the gates with ten touchdowns in the first three games. He had a weird game against Detroit where the Chiefs scored 34 points, and yet he didn’t have a single touchdown. Week 7 was when Mahomes got injured, and that was early in the game. He returned Week 10 and threw for 446 yards and three scores. It was an up and down finish to the season as he had a few games under 200 passing yards and games with just one score. Mahomes was like Saquon Barkley in a way this year. He missed a few games, had some down games, but at the end his floor still showed up. This is what the elite do at their positions.

2020 Projections

Mahomes is still coming in as one of the top projected quarterbacks this season. He is projecting around the 35 passing touchdown mark, and over 4,500 passing yards. Only Lamar Jackson projects for more fantasy points than him at this point, and that is because of his rushing numbers. In terms of range of outcomes, Mahomes overall upside is higher than most below him. If he has a floor season, there won’t be a real bargain with him as others will come close to what he produces.

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: 3rd/4th Round

Auction Price: $28

After the major jump in ADP and auction value last season, he will fall down a little bit, but not by much. Mahomes is going to be one of the first two quarterbacks off the board, with Lamar Jackson being the other. So you are still reaching for a quarterback in regards to the others that will go rounds later. If your league weights passing touchdowns as six points, then you can make the case. It is still a deep position with plenty of value and mid-round picks.

Floor

While you might not have been happy with his overall production for where you drafted him, Mahomes finishing as a top eight quarterback despite missing really 3-4 games, this is what he brings to the table. The floor is there, and he will slip a round or two more this year because of his 2019 numbers. On a weekly basis you are getting a pretty solid floor for him, and looking at overall numbers come the end of the year, a healthy Mahomes is topping 4,500 all-purpose yards and 30+ total touchdowns.

Ceiling

Coming off a season where he had 52 total touchdowns and over 5,000 yards in 2018, he posted more human numbers in 2019. Putting a realistic ceiling on Mahomes should aim to the 40 passing touchdown range. He had a stretch of games in the middle of the 2019 season where he was either injured, or posted unproductive games, like Oakland in Week 13 and against the Chargers in Week 11. He had seven games with zero or one touchdowns thrown. A bit odd for him, and I don’t believe we will get a stretch of games like that again. One of those included the game he went down and the Week 17 game where he wasn’t needed.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense

Kansas City averaged 28.2 points per game last season, which was 5th in the league. They averaged the 6th most total yards per game, and were fifth in passing yards per game with 281.1. Overall the Chiefs ranked 5th in total fantasy points, and that was with Chiefs averaging the 15th most pass attempts. They were 5th in passing touchdowns and 9th in passing completions. We have seen the Chiefs really dominate on the offensive side over the last few seasons, even dating back to Alex Smith being in town. Andy Reid and this staff run a terrific game plan most weeks and it is friendly for all fantasy positions.

The Chiefs played at a league average pace in comparison, and didn’t use a ton of no-huddle. This doesn’t matter too much for them, as they move the ball in big chunks and they are also leading anyway. No need to keep up a high pace. In the first half of games they finished with the 10th best pace, and then the 26th in the second half. It says a lot about how their games go.

Strength Of Schedule

You really won’t be sitting Mahomes based on any matchups, as he is a matchup proof quarterback and this is a matchup proof offense. There has been some movement within the division, as Denver added A.J. Bouye to their team, and Chris Harris leaves Denver to go to the Chargers. I expect the Chargers defense to be far better than last season, but Oakland twice is always a positive for this team. Outside of the division this year they will play the AFC East. New England and Buffalo are two tougher secondaries, and the Dolphins made some moves to try and sure up a bottom five pass defense from last season.

There are some eye popping matchups already, like facing Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. The NFC South schedule is a favorable one for Mahomes to put up big weeks. Houston is also going to be a strong matchup for Mahomes, as they were a bottom third pass defense last season. Looking at this schedule for a quarterback other than Mahomes, I wouldn’t be thrilled. However, he is an elite name and the weekly production is always safe.