Russell Wilson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Throughout his NFL career, Russell Wilson has always been a top-ten quarterback in fantasy football. While this is a testament to his skill-set as a dual-threat QB, it also signals that he has been immune to the Seattle Seahawks’s mild dysfunction during their rebuild. Even though his receiving corps isn’t an elite unit, it features fantasy gems, like Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister. Therefore he looks to continue his fantasy success for another year.

2019 Recap

For the second time in three years, Russell Wilson was a top-three quarterback in fantasy football. The former Wisconsin Badger finished with 4,110 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and 328.6 fantasy points. In addition, Wilson was a great dual-threat QB, who ran for 342 yards and three rushing touchdowns.

Incredibly, Wilson accomplished all of this success despite the bevy of injuries suffered by many of his key players, especially his offensive linemen. In fact, at one point in the season, over half of the Seahawks’ OL was listed on the injury report. While injuries are commonplace in the NFL, the fact that Wilson still balled out is essential for his fantasy value.

2020 Projections

Recently, dual-threat QBs like Russell Wilson have been excellent in fantasy football. Last season, all of the ten best QBs in fantasy football had the ability to extend plays with their legs. Furthermore, Aaron Rodgers was the only top-ten fantasy QB who ran for less than 200 yards. Therefore it isn’t surprising that Russell Wilson is projected to be the fourth-best fantasy quarterback next season. Although he will likely usurp Deshaun Watson in upcoming fantasy rankings since Watson will no longer be throwing to DeAndre Hopkins.

Heading into next season, it would be wise to expect an uptick in Russell Wilson’s passing numbers. Part of this increase is based on the expected improvement of phenom WR D.K. Metcalf, who already shattered expectations last season. Also, the addition of TE Greg Olsen creates a talented TE trio that already included fantasy gems, Jacob Hollister and Will Dissly. Plus, Tyler Lockett’s ability as a speedy deep-threat will ensure that Wilson gets some big chunk plays every now and then.

Russell Wilson: highest graded QB pic.twitter.com/WKA3iMh70O

— PFF (@PFF) April 6, 2020

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 7.6
Auction Price: $18
Due to the amount of depth at the QB position, you can afford to wait until the seventh round to draft Wilson. Although it wouldn’t be too much of a reach to select him within the sixth round if you are antsy to pick a QB early. If Deshaun Watson’s auction price tumbles (which seems likely), Wilson is likely to see an increase in his auction price. However, since Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes will likely have an auction price way more expensive than Wilson’s, Russell’s price might be a good bargain.

Floor

Wilson’s floor likely will be higher than most tier 1 & 2 QBs. Compared to QBs like Mahomes and Jackson, Wilson’s weekly numbers won’t be as consistent. Nevertheless, he will be more stable than guys like Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, and Carson Wentz. Moreover, Wilson has asserted himself as a consistent elite QB, even when his receiving corps and/or OL are hobbled. Therefore, he won’t be dependent on the players around him for solid fantasy success. The only way I expect Wilson to fall outside the top seven QBs is if he sustains a significant injury, but that is unlikely since he hasn’t missed a game in his career.

Ceiling

If you’re looking for a solid tier one QB, Russell Wilson is certainly one of the better options heading into 2020. Since 2017, Wilson has been one of the league’s most efficient passers, holding a 3:1+ TD: INT ratio while scoring 30+ passing TDs in every season during this timespan. Additionally, he is averaging less than eight interceptions over his last three seasons. Therefore, Wilson is one of the more risk-averse passers in the NFL and is unlikely to sink your fantasy team with a horrific dud in any given week.

Seahawks Offense

Within Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, Russell Wilson will continue to be a dynamic passer. Schottenheimer’s system maximizes YAC with drive and shallow plays that target the intermediate and deep levels of the field. This will ensure that Wilson is an aggressive passer who can pick up chunk plays to bolster his fantasy stats. Plus, playmakers like Tyler Lockett as well as safety valves like Jacob Hollister will help Wilson pick up extra YAC.

Part of this scheme will require the Seahawks offensive line to give Wilson enough time to look across the middle of the field. Given that the Seahawks OL has been a subpar pass protection unit throughout Russell Wilson’s entire career, this issue will likely prevent him from being as dynamic as Mahomes. Nevertheless, Seattle’s efforts to bolster their OL should help them do a better job protecting Wilson on deep passes. Plus, it helps that Wilson excels at evading pressure, so his OL should only be a slight deterrent against strong defensive lines.

Strength of Schedule

Wilson’s schedule might be a bit troubling within his division. Interestingly, his fantasy production was shoddy last season against the Arizona Cardinals even though they surrendered the most fantasy points to QBs. If the Cardinals defense remains lackluster next season, I expect Wilson to ball out against them in tight contests but remain lackluster in blowouts. Against the Rams and Niners, I expect him to compete well against their tough defenses because he showed the ability to do so last season. He might have a stud performance against them each once but that is only likely if the game enters a shootout.

The AFC East might be troublesome when Wilson plays against the Bills and Pats because they each ranked in the top four at defending against the pass. Wilson might be able to squeak out a decent game against New England since they struggled against running QBs last year, but this isn’t a guarantee. As of right now, the Dolphins look to be an easy stud performance for Russell since they were generous to fantasy QBs last year. Yet this projection could change completely if the Dolphins make splashes in the draft to bolster their defense.