Sammy Watkins Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Ranking-WR21, ADP-5.1, Auction Value($200)-$15, Team-KAN, BYE-12

With the looming suspension of Tyreke Hill, the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs’ receivers need to step it up. One prime candidate to do so is Sammy Watkins. Watkins is a confusing player, as he seems to always seem to be on the verge of stardom but has never broken through. His yards per target number is sterling and playing for Mahomes can only help. On the other hand despite all his physical gifts he’s battled injuries and inconsistency for much of his career and hasn’t cracked over 600 yards for 3 straight seasons.

Sammy Watkins is primed for a big year with the Chiefs.

The early indicators show that the Mahomes-Watkins pairing has been remarkably efficient, and with an expanded role on the horizon, 2019 could be a career year for the WR: https://t.co/3cWPDwcEAY pic.twitter.com/J5enLXFlgl

— PFF (@PFF) July 6, 2019

 

 

 

 

The Chiefs are facing an interesting season. As long as they have Mahomes they should be a playoff team but whether they can still be championship contenders this year depends on how much the rest of the Chiefs receivers can fill the void of Tyreke Hill. Regardless, it should be fun to see how Andy Reid changes up his offense to account for Hill’s absence.

Tier	FPTS 2018	Rating	GP	SNPS/G	TGT	REC	TGT/G	YDS	100+ YDS	YDS/REC	TD	Yahoo PTS/G
2	95.1	85	10	46	55	40	5.5	519	2	13.0	3	9.5

Upside

Watkins has great physical tools, and he definitely has the potential to be elite. In just his second season, he had over 1000 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, so we know he can be productive. Playing with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes helps as well. Right now, all the pieces are in place for Watkins to have a career year. He’s in a fantastic offensive system with arguably the best quarterback in the game, and he’s currently the most established wide receiver on the team. If he can stay on the field, we may be looking at a 1200 yard season with 10 touchdowns.

Floor

Watkins has had injury issues for much of his career, including last season, where he only started 9 games. He also hasn’t had a truly great season since 2015, and it’s fair to wonder if he can ever reclaim that form. Watkins should get a lot of touches but given the NFL’s inconsistent suspension system, Hill may still end up playing a large chunk of the season. If that’s the case, Watkins will probably be relegated to the background once more, a role he hasn’t exactly thrived in. It’s entirely possible Watkins can’t stay healthy and gets supplanted, leading to a 600 yard 500 yard season with 4 touchdowns.

What to Expect

Watkins is currently rated as the 21st best receiver and holds an auction value of $14. He holds an average draft position in the 5th round. Considering how unpredictable Watkins has been, drafting him in the 5th round feels right. He’s pretty cheap as well, and considering his potential, getting him at $14 could be a bargains. Compared to some exorbitant prices for other number one receivers, Watkins may turn out to be one of the best steals in the draft.

Watkins has shown his ceiling as a WR1 he just needs to prove he can get reach it. Given the issues he’s battled for the last couple years, drafting him as a WR1 is inadvisable, but he’d make a solid WR2 and a great WR3. Given how great of a situation he’s in, how high he can go is entirely up to him. Given his history, expecting him to play all 16 games would be a mistake, but I think he’ll hit 12 or 13. Considering he should be the number one receiver for Mahomes for at least the start of the season, I expect he’ll have a 900 yard 7 touchdown season.