Stefon Diggs Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2021

The Buffalo Bills finally found the #1 receiver they’ve been looking for in Stefon Diggs. After trading a first, fifth, and sixth-round pick to the Vikings in exchange for Diggs, many people wondered if Diggs was worth the cost. People knew he was a good receiver with some temper issues and was behind Adam Theilen in the Minnesota offense. And Diggs shut those doubters up real quick as he and Josh Allen both had breakout years in 2020 and lead the Bills to their first AFC championship game since the Jim Kelly led 90’s Bills. Allen to Diggs was one of the best quarterback wide receiver tandem in the NFL and both will need the same level of play in 2021 if the Bills want to win the Super Bowl. 

2020 Recap 

RecRec YDSRec TDSFPTSFPPG
12715358328.620.5

Looking at the full-season stats, Diggs really had a bonkers year in 2020. Diggs recorded his career-high in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in a season and had his second-most receiving touchdowns in a season with 8. 2020 also marked the highest average fantasy points per game Diggs ever recorded with 20.5 points per game. Diggs only had 2 games where he recorded less than 10 fantasy points and 5 games where he recorded 20+ fantasy points including a 37 point game against the Patriots where he recorded 9 catches for 145 yards and 3 touchdowns. Diggs was truly spectacular in his first season with the Bills and will need to duplicate his production in 2021 if the Bills want to remain a powerhouse in the AFC. 

2021 Projections 

RecRec YDSRec TDSFPTSFPPG
112.31102.57.9314.518.5

Diggs will have a great year in 2021, guaranteed. He’s too good not to. Diggs is regarded as one of the receivers in the league and with good reason. He had the most receptions and receiving yards in the league last season and looked truly unstoppable. Remember Antonio Brown on the Steelers or Julio Jones on the Falcons? That’s kind of what it looks like seeing Josh Allen throwing the ball to Stefon Diggs. Allen and Diggs have developed unbelievable chemistry in such a short period of time and it’s not hard to get Diggs the ball when he makes opposing cornerbacks look like they have never played football before. There is no way to stop Diggs other than to double team him and Diggs will have another big year in 2021. 

Allen and Diggs messing around 

ADP & Auction Value 

ADP: 13, Rounds 1-2, WR3

Auction Value: $40

Diggs will look to cement his spot at the top of the fantasy leaderboards this upcoming season. He has surpassed fantasy mediocrity and has ascended to fantasy greatness among the ranks of fantasy titans like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. He is solidly the #3 receiver, but other players, like DeAndre Hopkins and D.K. Metcalf, are definitely nipping at his heels. Diggs is certainly worth the investment though, as the chemistry between him and Josh Allen is truly unmatched by any other duo in the NFL. Diggs is Allen’s go-to guy no matter where he is on the field. Diggs could be short or Diggs can be 40-yards downfield, it doesn’t really matter. Diggs recorded 166 targets last season and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number increases this season. 

Floor 

I expect Diggs to have another dominant fantasy season in 2021, but you never know in the NFL. The NFL is great because of how quickly things change, but if you’re a Diggs fantasy owner you don’t want anything to change. You would be more than happy to receive your free 20.5 points and call it a day, but the NFL might have other plans. The only things I see slowing Diggs down in 2021 are injuries and teams double-teaming him. Diggs has only played a full season once in his career and as we saw with Michael Thomas last season, catching that many passes puts a lot of wear and tear on the body. Diggs being double-teamed would also stink for owners as his targets would probably decline and his receptions would also decline as a result. But I see that the lowest Diggs could fall is to the production of a low WR1, that’s just how talented he is. 

Ceiling 

NFL defenses have a tornado coming, and it’s in the shape of Stefon Diggs dancing in the endzone. Diggs ran past defenses in 2020 and he’s going to do it again in 2021. Diggs has one of the combos of speed, dizzying route running ability, hands, and football IQ in the league. And Josh Allen only amplifies Diggs’ strengths. Diggs had a 76.5% catch rate in 2020 and that’s because of the improved accuracy of Josh Allen and the excellent playcalling of Brian Daboll, Sean McDermott, and the Bills’ coaching staff. Diggs is going to be a matchup nightmare no matter who he plays and should put up monster numbers this season. 

Buffalo Bills Offense 

Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott had the Bills’ offense firing on all cylinders last season. Buffalo BillsThey were amongst the best offenses in the league, as they ranked 3rd in total yards and 2nd in total points. They were led by MVP-candidate Josh Allen and the receiving yards leader Stefon Diggs. They have one of the deepest receiving cores in the league as they have the ever-reliable slot receiving Cole Beasley, the aspiring Gabriel Davis, stalwart Dawson Knox, and the newly added Emmanuel Sanders. The Bills did have issues rushing the ball last season, as they ranked 20th in total rushing yards. Running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, as well as the offensive line, were just not getting the job done so the Bills signed RB Matt Brieda and resigned offensive linemen Daryll Williams and Joe Feliciano to help. Watching the Bills offense was like watching a fireworks display and it’s going to be a blast seeing Bills Mafia go crazy for this Bills team in 2021. 

Strength of Schedule

After playing for the AFC championship crown last season, the Bills get another shot at redemption as they get to play the 23rd hardest schedule in the NFL. This is because they have to play the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets twice, the Steelers, Washington Football Team, and Chiefs once, and the entire AFC South and NFC South. Their schedule is the second easiest among playoff teams last season, with only the Buccaneers having an easier schedule. Looking closer at the schedule, the harder games for the Bills are their games against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Steelers, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Football Team, and Patriots. This would be a problem for most teams to handle, except when you remember that the Bills get to feast on the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Jets, Jaguars, and Texans. Barring any injuries to important players, the Bills should be competing for the Super Bowl next season.

Chris primarily bets on the NFL but has also won betting on the NBA, CBB, and CFB. His friends call him "The Trap Game Mastermind" for his ability to identify trap games. Loves underdogs, overs, and betting against fraudulent teams.

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