Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook & Value 2020

On March 18, the Minnesota Vikings agreed to trade Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills in return for three picks in this year’s draft – a first-rounder (#22 overall), fifth-rounder (#155 overall), and sixth-rounder (#201 overall) – as well as a fourth-round selection in 2021. Diggs had developed into a solid starting receiver, going for over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons, after Minnesota drafted him in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. According to quarterback Kirk Cousins, it had “become apparent” that Diggs wanted to be dealt with, and the writing was on the wall after he seemed disheartened by his lack of involvement (4 catches in 2 games) in this year’s playoffs. Buffalo will look to transform its offense in 2020 around the receiving talent of Diggs.

2019 Recap

Diggs ranked as the 24th-best receiver in 2019, and although he saw 55 fewer targets than the season prior, he averaged a career-high 17.9 yards per reception. Minnesota went with much more of a run-heavy approach in 2019 – as Dalvin Cook became a dominant force in their offense, Kirk Cousins attempted over 100 fewer passes. Diggs had the highest completion percentage among wide receivers on the team, although he was not thrilled with the volume he received (94 targets).

2020 Projections

I have Diggs producing a WR1 season in 2020. John Brown is coming off a season in which he was a top-20 wide receiver for fantasy as the number one target for Josh Allen. Lineups has Brown rated as an 80 OVR with Diggs coming in at 90 OVR, suggesting a significant gap between the two. I also am projecting Allen’s pass attempts to increase overall, as I believe their defense overperformed last year in holding teams to the 2nd-fewest points in the league, and they will need to rely on their offense more this season. Diggs should take over as the number one weapon in the attack, and with Allen’s big arm, he should produce some big-time downfield catches.

Today I am releasing my very first fantasy article where I give you an in-depth look at Stefon Diggs on his new team, the Buffalo Bills. Give it a read and tell me what you think. If you like it, please share it! @atbsportsnet #AskATB https://t.co/nsfUWfAP3Z

— Nathan Drake (@nastynateff) April 11, 2020

Average Draft Position

ADP: 4.9

Auction: $22

Stefon Diggs might be undervalued in fantasy drafts – as he transitions from Kirk Cousins to Josh Allen and Minnesota to Buffalo, public perception may be that he is taking a step back as far as his situation goes. However, with Allen continuing to improve and a clear path for Diggs to top 120+ targets easily, I see him as a near-lock to return top-15 ish value.

Floor

Diggs has had a spotty injury history, missing ten of a potential eighty career games with injuries to his right knee, hip, and groin, as well as a chest/rib bruise. None of them figure to be recurring issues, however. The real question that could end up driving down his floor would be passing volume. The Bills had the 7th-highest rush frequency in 2019, and the defense may not take the step back I expect them to. A combination of factors could lead to Diggs having a lower target total than I hope, which could end up around the 100 range rather than 130.

Ceiling

Diggs has all sorts of upside as the number-one weapon in for the gun-slinging Josh Allen. No, he might not be the most accurate downfield quarterback, but Allen proved that he could lead a fantasy-friendly offense last year with breakouts from John Brown and Devin Singletary. Diggs is the most talented player Allen has ever played with, and on paper, it seems to be a match made in heaven. Allen is more aggressive of a quarterback than Cousins (averaged 1.5 more air yards per throw in 2019), and Diggs should be heavily utilized in the red zone. At just 6’0″, he may not be the prototypical go-up-and-get-it receiver, but the Bills’ other primary weapons (Brown, Beasley, Singletary) are all shorter than he is. A career-high with 10-12 touchdowns could be in the cards for Diggs.

Buffalo Bills Offense

The Bills ranked just 23rd in offensive points per game last year, and 24th in total yards gained. That all changes now as Diggs should become to go-to threat for a team that has seemed allergic to scoring at times. John Brown and Cole Beasley were always more fit to be role-players in the offense – Brown the vertical stretcher and Beasley the third-down slot machine – and now they have their X. Diggs should improve everything this offense wants to accomplish, and this team could look different in the fall. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll should be able to get the most out of his personnel as he has been in NFL coaching since 2000, taking just one year off to be the offensive coordinator for the national championship-winning Alabama Crimson Tide in 2018 – not too shabby. Luckily for Daboll, this offense shouldn’t have to rely on a miracle comeback from an unproven quarterback as they should have the players to succeed right away.

Strength Of Schedule

In the AFC East, it’s a mixed bag of defensive talent that Diggs will have to take on next year. The Patriots are one of the best defenses in the league, and their secondary in particular is secure with Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Adrian Philips, Stefon Gilmore, and J.C. Jackson. New England allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the receiver position in 2019, but the Dolphins (2nd most) and Jets (8th most) figure to be much more friendly to Allen and Diggs. Among the rest of their opponents, the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Rams, and Steelers all ranked inside the top ten for fewest fantasy points against from wide receivers and figures to return most of their defensive talent. The Cardinals and Raiders should offer a bit less of a challenge, but both teams could improve defensively this year. It’s hard to predict the strength of schedule this far out from the start of the season, but the outlook isn’t great in that regard for the Bills.

“Buffalo is a team that’s ready to do something special. And I truly believe it’s just getting started.”

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) April 10, 2020

Bottom Line

Stefon Diggs is an excellent wide receiver and could be set to receive a career-high in targets in 2020. Josh Allen just turned John Brown into a top 20 guy, and Diggs is a much better talent. With a bit of a decline defensively for the Bills and increased confidence in the downfield passing ability of Allen, this offense could look different next year. Diggs will be at the center of it all, and I have him as a pretty safe low-end WR1 option with the upside to be one of the best at his position in 2020.