Tarik Cohen Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Position Ranking- RB30, ADP- 5.1, Auction Value($200)- $24, Team- CHI, BYE- 6

Tarik Cohen is one of the more fascinating running backs in the league, as he is often utilized more as a receiver than running back. Drafted in the 4th round by the Chicago Bears in 2017, he immediately made an impact, turning his small stature into an advantage by being the fastest and most elusive on the field. With Jordan Howard on the Eagles now, Cohen will probably be asked do to more. For what it’s worth, Cohen believes his role as a change of pace receiving back won’t change. He also appears to have a lot of faith in his team, as he gave glowing praise to his coach Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky in a SiriusXM radio interview.

.@ChicagoBears RB Tarik Cohen talks about his QB Mitchell Trubisky, Tarik's role in this year's offense, & the creativity of his Head Coach, Matt Nagy

"Coach Nagy is a mad scientist" pic.twitter.com/s5nODXaRUc

— SiriusXM NFL Radio (@SiriusXMNFL) June 20, 2019

 

 

The Bears surprised a lot of people by going 12-4 last year, but it’ll be harder to do so again. The Vikings and Packers will likely be better this year, and they won’t have the element of surprise. To even repeat as division champions, the offense will need to be better. It was very inconsistent at times, masked by the incredible, league best defense of the Bears. The defense will likely still be very good, but it has gone through some changes that might affect them. Any drop in the Bears defense will have to be made up for by the offense, and Cohen will be the one expected to do the heavy lifting.

FPTS 2018	GP	ATT	RUSH YDS	YDS/ATT	ATT/G	100+ YDS	RUSH TD	REC	TGTS/G	REC YDS	REC TDS	YAHOO FPTS/G
198.4	16	99	444	4.5	6.2	0	3	71	5.7	725	5	12.4

Upside

Cohen had over 1000 yards from scrimmage the past season, over 400 from rushing and over 700 from receiving. Howard is gone, so he should have even more touches this year. Cohen is most effective in the open field where he can fully utilize his speed and agility, so if the Bears offense can become even more vertical the extra space provided should help. Of course, that all depends on how much Mitch Trubisky can improve. If Trubisky can make a leap, that should help Cohen as well, especially as Cohen is such a large factor in the Bears passing game. If everything breaks right, Cohen could have a pro bowl level season. His ceiling is a 700 rushing yard, 900 receiving yard, and 12 touchdown season.

Floor

Due to his small stature, its fair to wonder if Cohen can shoulder the load of being a lead back for a full season. Even if he’s just in his 3rd season, he’ll likely be vulnerable to injuries his entire career just because of his frame. Cohen is very talented, but Matt Nagy may not choose to use him as much as people hope in order to preserve him more and save his energy for more important games. Couple that with the fact that the Bears drafted running back David Montgomery in the 3rd round, Cohen may not be as used as frequently as people expect. His floor is a season akin to his last one, with 400 rushing yards, 700 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.

What to Expect

Cohen is currently ranked as the 30th best running back and has an auction value of $24. He’s expected to be drafted in the 5th round. Although he’s underrated as the 30th best running back, his price might too expensive. Cohen has never had the shoulder the burden of being the lead back, so drafting him that high could be playing with fire. There’s also much better deals out there, such as Lamar Miller, a more proven back who only costs $10. This isn’t the worst overpay if you get him, just know there are more proven, veteran options out there.

Cohen can likely provide RB2 value, though making him your main back isn’t wise. The Bears are for the most part running it back on offense, as the majority of the offensive line as well as the receiver group is still intact. Trubisky and Nagy will have had another offseason together which should help. All this continuity is probably good for Cohen, who should see his role expand, though it might not be as much as people think. I foresee another strong season for the Bears who will once again make the playoffs, with Cohen being a big part of that. I think he’ll have a 500 rushing yard, 800 receiving yard, and 10 touchdown season.