Todd Gurley Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

After Atlanta Falcons cut Devonta Freeman, they had a hole in the backfield. Things fell into their lap a bit as the Rams cut Todd Gurley, and then the former Georgia Bulldog returned to the state on a one-year deal. Gurley finished as a top 15 back in PPR leagues, but his overall ADP and auction value took a major dip that had most of us guessing as far as what his fantasy worth would be. Los Angeles hindered his workload, although towards the end of the year we started to see him carry a bit more weight. Gurley flashed some of his old potential, and the injury concerns might not go away as the knee is always a talking point. Landing with Atlanta is going to be an interesting spot, because there is potential for him to be a fantasy football value this season.

2019 Recap

Todd Gurley played 15 games last season, averaging 14.9 attempts per game. He rushed for just 3.8 yards per carry and 57.1 rushing yards per game. However he had 12 touchdowns. He now has double digit touchdowns in all but one season in his career. Gurley’s overall workload was all over the place last season as he topped 15 attempts on the ground just six times. He saw 49 targets through the air, catching 31 of them for 207 yards and two scores. The touchdown production helped mask some underlying issues with yards, and that is a reason why some will have hesitation in 2020.

2020 Projections

The amount of volume is going to dictate on the actual numbers for Todd Gurley. He was still very productive in the touchdown department last season despite lesser touches, and he can hold that mark again this season. He should hit the thousand all-purpose yard mark, which is what he projects for, but that comes with seeing decent volume and staying healthy. There are a few names around him that project for better numbers in the rankings, but Gurley has flashed having that big season potential left in the tank still.

Most rushing TDs over the last two seasons:

Todd Gurley (29)
Derrick Henry (28)
Aaron Jones (24)
Christian McCaffrey (22)
Alvin Kamara (19)
Ezekiel Elliott (18)
Melvin Gordon (18)
Saquon Barkley (17)
Marlon Mack (17)
…
Josh Allen (17) 👀

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 10, 2020

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Late Second Round / Early Third

Auction Price: $30

The spot where Gurley is being drafted at the moment is close to where he was last season. Although this might change over the summer. You are taking a gamble on Gurley in a new environment with Atlanta, as well as his durability. He is coming off an inefficient season where the touchdowns kept him fantasy relevant. However this range is still worth the gamble, depending on who is out there when it is your time to pick. In auction leagues you might be able to get him for a decent bargain and hope for the upside.

Floor

If you are drafting Gurley, you are drafting him for his ceiling and not his floor. The floor is fairly low if the touchdowns don’t come, because he could end up in the 6-7 range with 700-800 yards on the ground and will finish far lower than most going around his ADP currently. The durability is still something to note here with the knee, and any issues would mean he is not playing a full season and that makes it tough for him to give you any sort of value.

Ceiling

There is certainly a high end of outcomes still with Gurley, where if he is truly healthy, we get to see a big year out of him. Atlanta has been addressing the offensive line over the past two off-seasons, and that is a step in the right direction. It would be more about him popping off some bigger yards and keeping these big touchdown seasons to put it all together like the healthy years with the Rams.

Atlanta Falcons Offense

Atlanta didn’t run the ball much, in fact they ran the fewest run plays in the game last season. Not a big surprise because the defense was banged up with injuries again and the offense was not built to run the ball. The offensive line was shaky at times, and Devonta Freeman was not up to par. We should definitely see an increase in run plays, but still expect the Falcons to lean more on the pass. Because of the game scripts for the offense, Atlanta played up in pace and were inside the top five. Even if things neutralize a bit, still expect a faster paced offense which always bodes well for fantasy.

Strength Of Schedule

The Tampa Bay defense really turned itself around against the run last season, and were extremely tough to run on. The same goes for the Saints. These defenses should keep that high ranking against the run this season with no losses of personnel on the defensive side. Carolina is the one team within the division that is going to be an easy matchup for offenses in general. They ranked dead last against the run last season, and they lost Luke Keuchly to retirement. There are some tougher out of division games against the Bears and Vikings. Both of those defenses were inside the top ten against the run last season, and didn’t give up a ton of fantasy points to opposing backs.

Now there are a lot of matchups that will be in the green for Gurley on paper this season. Starting with the Detroit Lions, who were one of the poorer defenses in the league last season. Denver was more middle of the road against the run, ranking 16th. Dallas ranked 15th, so even a few out of division games are going to be average matchups for Gurley. Some of the prime time games against Kansas City and Green Bay, both of those teams struggled against the run and thrived against the pass. The jury is still out on that changing in 2020. The Chargers ranked 25th, but I am banking on them to be a better defense with the talent they have this season.