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I will take a look at the worst defenses of Week 12 and provide an in-depth look on borderline names to get a bump or just overall strong matchups where we could see ceiling games from players. If you are looking for player rankings for Week 12, you can find them here, as well as waiver wire adds. Anything fantasy football related can be found here.
Atlanta Falcons Pass Offense Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The glaring matchup is the Falcons offense against Tampa Bay this week. I’m not targeting the running game against the Buccaneers, who rank first in DVOA against the run, but 30th against the pass. Since the Week 7 bye week for Tampa, they have allowed 14 passing touchdowns in four games, and 1,123 passing yards. Overall this season, they are allowing 290.9 passing yards per game, which is the second worst in the league. Teams are averaging 40.6 passing attempts per game against the Bucs, which these games generally turn into a shootout. Only the Cardinals have allowed more passing touchdowns than the 25 the Bucs have allowed this season. Teams are averaging 31.3 points per game against the Buccaneers this season, and Atlanta’s touchdown production is coming through the air. They have an 80% passing touchdown percentage. This is a big week for Matt Ryan and company. He tossed for over 300 yards last week, but had just the one touchdown. Ryan has a chance to be QB1 on the week, and I would be disappointed if he didn’t. Austin Hooper is out, and Devonta Freeman is looking more likely to be out as well. Ryan threw the ball 31 times, where Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones both had eight targets.
Denver Run Offense Vs. Buffalo Bills
This is likely low scoring affair ahead of us, but I expect Denver’s backs to get plenty of work. Phillip Lindsay is more so ahead of Royce Freeman in my rankings, but both have potential to have standalone fantasy value this week. The Bills are allowing 4.4 yards per carry, and 106 rushing yards per game. Over the last five weeks, running backs have ran for 545 yards and five touchdowns with 31 receptions and 216 receiving yards. The Bills are a tough pass defense, ranking 9th in DVOA. It is going to be tough for Denver to move the ball through the air with a lack of receiving options and an inexperienced quarterback on the road in Buffalo. Denver’s defense is tough as well where I would look at them to keep this game close. The Bills rank 27th in DVOA against the run, and have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to running backs over the last five games.
San Francisco Run Offense Vs. Green Bay Packers
Matt Breida was inactive last week, and that is looking to be the same against Green Bay. Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert will be the lead back. The running game wasn’t great, where Coleman had 14 yards on 12 carries, and Mostert had 13 yards on 6 carries. No other running back had a rushing attempt. Tevin Coleman saw four targets, going for 3-48-0. Mostert had three, going for 2-14-0. The offensive line is somewhat of a concern given the strong running attack, as the backs have combined for under 3.5 YPC over the last three games. It is a great spot for the backs here. Green Bay is allowing 4.8 YPC and 126.9 rushing yards per game. They rank 28th in DVOA against the run, and have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. Not much has changed over the last four games, where they have allowed over 600 yards to running backs and four touchdowns.
Cleveland Browns Vs. Miami Dolphins
The Browns are in a get right game on the offensive side. If they don’t put up 25+ points this week, disband the team. We will start with the passing game, where Miami ranks 32nd in DVOA, and they are allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are also allowing the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers. For the love of god can we get a big Odell Beckham week? The Dolphins have allowed four 20+ fantasy point games to wide receivers this season. Both him and Jarvis Landry are in premium spots. Running backs against the Dolphins have just been on a tear. They have allowed 148 yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, and the 6th most fantasy points per game. Kareem Hunt has had PPR value and more work in the passing game, where Nick Chubb just continues to his normal workload. Both have standalone value this week.
Oakland Raiders Pass Offense Vs. New York Jets
Both passing offenses are intriguing in this spot this week. Josh Jacobs has a tough matchup against the Jets defense, but I am looking at the Raiders passing attack to do some damage. Quarterbacks have averaged 24.8 fantasy points over the last five weeks against the Jets. Derek Carr has thrown nine touchdowns over the last five games with 1,377 passing yards and one rushing touchdown. Wide receivers have dominated the Jets secondary, scoring the third most fantasy points per game this season. Over the last five weeks, receivers have a 71-892-11 line. Preston Williams, Chris Conley, and Darius Slayton have scored 15+ fantasy points against this Jets team over the last four weeks. New York ranks 21st against the pass and 2nd against the run. Tyrell Williams is in a prime spot, and I even like Hunter Renfrow.
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