Top 5 Fantasy Matchups to Target in Week 13: A Ceiling Week For Davante Adams

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I will take a look at the worst defenses of Week 13 and provide an in-depth look on borderline names to get a bump or just overall strong matchups where we could see ceiling games from players. If you are looking for player rankings for Week 13, you can find them here, as well as waiver wire adds. Anything fantasy football related can be found here.

Jacksonville Jaguars Pass Offense Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay moved out of the basement against the pass in terms of DVOA, but still rank 25th, and hold the best run defense in the league. The Buccaneers have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (26.9), and have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (31.6). Over the last five games, Tampa has allowed an 81-1044-11 line to opposing wideouts. DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook, and even Chris Conley are in an elevated week. Opposing teams are averaging 289.9 yards per game against the Bucs, and also 41.9 passing attempts per game. The Jaguars are sitting with a 25 implied total this season, which is a lot higher than their normal rate.

Over the past two weeks with Westbrook returning from injury, he has seen 15 targets. Chark has seen 21, and Conley has seen 17. The surprising number is Conley as I thought his target share that was on the rise was due to the health of Westbrook.

Philadelphia Run Offense Vs. Miami Dolphins

Jordan Howard is still listed as day-to-day, which means Miles Sanders could see a steady workload again with Miami on the horizon. The Eagles don’t necessarily need Howard this week, so he could rest up more. Sanders has seen over 80% of the snaps since Howard went down with the shoulder injury. He has worked well in the passing game and should see 15+ touches in this type of spot. Miami ranks 29th in DVOA against the run, and have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing backs (23.7). Opposing teams are averaging 31.7 rushing attempts against Miami, given they are usually in favorable spots. They have averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 148.1 rushing yards per game.

Now if Howard plays, I still like Sanders as a strong option. I am still iffy on plugging in Howard, especially with how we have seen guys return from injury this season. Philadelphia needs to continue to utilize their best playmakers given the receiving core is injured and below average. Overall the Eagles need to ride Sanders the rest of the way.

Green Bay Pass Offense Vs. New York Giants

Opposing teams are sitting with the 6th highest completion percentage against the Giants (67.8), and are averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per attempt. Green Bay’s passing offense has not been great this season, but having Davante Adams back is going to help. I am more intrigued with the running backs in the passing game, as they both have had a ton of value there throughout the season. New York ranks bottom five in DVOA against running backs in the passing game this season. The Giants have allowed the 7th most passing yards per game, and this is a get right week for the Packers.

Over the course of the season, the Giants have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (24.4). Wide receivers have averaged the second most fantasy points per game (28.0). Opposing WR1s have had a field day against them this season, with Evans, Thielen, Golladay, Robinson, and Cooper twice doing damage. This is a week for Adams to go off.

New York Jets Vs. Cincinnati Bengals

New York has scored 34 points exactly in each of the last three games, and will face another weak defense this week. The passing attack has been the more fantasy viable way to use the Jets of late. That should continue with the Bengals ranking 31st in DVOA against the pass. Over the last five weeks the Bengals have allowed 765 receiving yards in four games to receivers, and four touchdowns. That is good for the wideouts, especially Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson. Demaryius Thomas has also seen some looks of late. Cincinnati is allowing the highest yards per attempt this season (8.7), with the next closest being 8.1. Sam Darnold is an excellent streaming option again, and the Jets wideouts can be used as plug and plays for WR3 and FLEX roles.

Running backs have torched the Bengals this season, and Le’Veon Bell has found better fantasy performances over the last four weeks. He has seen 20 targets over the last four games, and has surpassed 15 PPR points in each game, finding the end zone twice. The Bengals rank 25th against the run, and have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing backs.

Los Angeles Rams Pass Offense Vs. Arizona Cardinals

It has been three straight games without a passing touchdown for the Rams, but that will change this week against the Cardinals. No team has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Cardinals (29). They have also allowed 297.5 passing yards per game, and a 71% completion rate. Arizona has allowed the 4th highest yards per attempt, and opposing quarterbacks have seen the fourth highest volume. If the Rams offense can’t get going this week, then that is it. No other team is allowing more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Cardinals (28.5). Wide receivers are also averaging the 7th most fantasy points per game, and of course tight ends have crushed the Cardinals for the most fantasy points so far this season.