Travis Kelce Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2021

We all know who this is by now. Travis Kelce has been the most dominant TE in the league for the past couple of seasons and he has shown no signs of stopping anytime soon. He led the Kansas City Chiefs in receptions and targets last season on their way to another Super Bowl Run. The Chiefs possess one of the most lethal offenses in NFL history due to the 3 headed monster of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Kelce is fun, charismatic, and puts up numbers you would think came straight from Madden. The AFC got a lot tougher this year, so Kelce will need to continue his streak as the best TE in football if the Chiefs want to reach the Superbowl for the 3rd straight year.

2020 Recap

RecRec YDSRec TDSFPTSFPPG
105141611312.819.6

There really isn’t much to say about how good Travis Kelce is. The man had 6 games where he scored 20+ fantasy points and 13 games where he scored 10+ fantasy points. He is an unstoppable force and there isn’t an immovable object in sight. Kelce only had 1 true letdown game but that was because the Chiefs beat the Broncos 43-16 in a snowstorm and didn’t really need him. His 11 touchdown catches were tied for most in the league at this position and 2020 marked his 5th straight season with over 1,000 receiving yards. 2020 was also the season where Kelce record a career-high in touchdown catches and receiving yards in a single season. Kelce is the clear alpha at the TE position and should have another dominant season in 2021.  

2021 Projections 

RecRec YDSRec TDSFPTSFPPG
100.51305.68.1275.416.2

Call Kelce a stat hog or a number muncher all you want, the man can score fantasy points in his sleep. Kelce’s numbers shot up since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback 3 years ago and the two have unbelievable chemistry together. And I would throw to Kelce constantly if I was Patrick Mahomes too. What’s there not to like with Kelce? He’s big, fast, reliable, shifty, dynamic, hard to tackle, and has a great vertical leap. Kelce is big enough to jump over cornerbacks and safeties and too fast to be covered by linebackers. Kelce is the ultimate weapon at TE and is going to put up astronomical numbers in 2021.  

ADP & Auction Value 

ADP: 9, Round 1, TE1

Auction Value: $44

You’re not messing around when you go and draft Travis Kelce with your first pick in fantasy. Kelce should be thought of more as a wide receiver who happens to be classified as a tight end rather than a traditional tight end. This is because Kelce gets split out wide more than any other tight end in the league. Kelce’s only competition is from George Kittle and Darren Waller, but those players aren’t on the same level as Kelce. The ADP difference between Kelce and those other two guys is 9 picks and in an auction draft, Kittle costs $29 and Waller costs $24 compared to Kelce’s $44 premium charge. There is a sizable gap between Kelce and his TE counterparts which shows how much better Kelce than other players. Pick Kelce if you get the chance to. 

Floor 

Kelce is as close to a foolproof pick as one can get. As always injuries and age is a factor in any player’s career. Kelce is now 31 years old and has had problems with his ankle, head, shoulder, and knee. But he has not missed much game time because of those injuries, in fact, he only has missed 1 game since becoming a full-time starter in 2014. These are fairly minor issues and something every NFL player has to deal with. Kelce is going to perform in 2021 and make anyone who drafts him very happy.

Ceiling 

Kelce broke his personal records in 2020 but has a great chance of breaking them again in 2021. Kelce only needs Tyreek Hill on the field, so he won’t get double-teamed, and Patrick Mahomes throwing to him because Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the league. After that, just get out of his way and let him work. Kelce is unguardable and has been keeping defensive coordinators from seeing their families for 6 years. Kelce might have better numbers this year because the Chiefs upgraded their offensive line in the offseason. With a new offensive line and Clyde Edwards-Helaire coming back healthy, that will open up more room for Kelce to rumble. Couple that with offensive genius Andy Reid and this already formidable offense might have gotten better.  

Kansas City Chiefs Offense 

kansas city chiefs logoWhat is there not to love about the Kansas City Chiefs offense? You want a franchise all-time great QB? Boom, you have Patrick Mahomes who could become the best quarterback ever someday. You want some of the fastest wide receivers that have ever been assembled on the same team? Bang, you have Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. You want one of the best receiving tight ends to ever play the game? Pow, you get Travis Kelce. Kansas City can do anything they want on offense and it’s a miracle they don’t average 50 points a game. This team had the most yards, scored the 6th most points, and scored the 6th most touchdowns in the NFL last season. This team also revamped their offensive line after almost getting Patrick Mahomes killed in the Super Bowl. Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz might have left, but the Chiefs were busy this offseason by trading for Orlando Brown Jr. and signing veterans Joe Thuney and Kyle Long from free agency. Kansas City will look to establish the run more this season as the only blemish on their almost perfect offense is that they ranked 16th in rushing yards last season.

Strength of Schedule 

The Chiefs have to play the AFC North and NFC East along with the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders twice and the Packers, Bills, and Titans once. This would give them the 11th hardest schedule for the 2021 season based on opponents’ combined winning percentage in 2020. The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC still goes through Kansas City, but clinching that #1 seed won’t be easy for the Chiefs. The AFC North is one of the hardest divisions in football because they house the Ravens, Browns, Steelers, and Bengals. All of those games will be difficult to win as well as their always tough division rival games against the Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos. The Chiefs have to play 5 division winners this upcoming season in the Washington Football Team, Steelers, Packers, Titans, and Bills, and that’s to be expected as the reigning Super Bowl contenders from the AFC. Every team will be looking to give them their best shot, but some of their easier games are against the Eagles, Giants, Bengals, and Cowboys. Regardless of the schedule, I still expect the Chiefs to be top dogs of the AFC and to be competing for a Lombardi Trophy in 2021.

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Chris primarily bets on the NFL but has also won betting on the NBA, CBB, and CFB. His friends call him "The Trap Game Mastermind" for his ability to identify trap games. Loves underdogs, overs, and betting against fraudulent teams.

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