Tyler Boyd Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Introduction

Tyler Boyd has emerged as a star in the NFL. After a mediocre first two seasons in the NFL where he averaged only 30 receptions and 400 yards, Tyler has had two straight 1000 yard seasons. In 2019, Boyd set a career-high in receptions and yards under back-up quarterback Ryan Findley. With the Cincinnati Bengals drafting Heisman Trophy Winning quarterback Joe Burrow with the number one overall pick, Tyler Boyd finally has a quarterback with tremendous upside. I can see a scenario where Boyd and Burrow become the new Dalton and Green, setting the league on fire with their chemistry. While a poor offensive line and a more crowded receiving corp may hurt Boyd’s production, I think the Joe Burrow addition will offset that concern. I expect Boyd to be consistent with his production from the past two seasons.

2019 Recap

Tyler Boyd showed that his 2018 season was not a fluke. The fourth-year wide-receiver drafted out of Pittsburgh finished 2019 with 90 receptions for 1046 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. Fantasy-wise, Boyd finished with an impressive 217 points for 13.56 points per game. I loved seeing Boyd realize his potential and prove the naysayers wrong in his second straight 1000 yard season. Even more impressive is that he played most of the season under struggling replacement-level quarterback Ryan Finley. No matter who was behind the snap, Boyd was productive.

2020 Projections

I am excited to see whether Boyd can elevate his game even further. While he has Joe Burrow, a very accurate quarterback with exceptional pocket awareness, I wonder how much of Burrow’s presence will actually increase Boyd’s production. For one, the Bengals strengthened their receiving corp by drafting Tee Higgins. Also, A.J. Green is expected to return for injury. When healthy, Green is a top ten receiver. Speed threat John Ross is still apart of this receiving group. For running backs, Joe Mixon and Giovanni Bernard perfectly complement each other forming one of the more formidable running back duos in the league. All these weapons will affect Boyd from being the clear number one option which will most likely create a dip in production.

Furthermore, the Bengals have arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL that wasn’t addressed in the offseason. If Joe Burrow doesn’t have the time to make passes, Boyd and the other receivers will obviously be affected. Fantasy owners should pay close attention to how the offensive line performs early on. It is something that could make or break this offense.

Lineups agrees projecting the receiver to finish 2020 with 70 receptions for 890 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. This is still an exceptional season which puts him as a decent second receiver on any team. He plays consistent, not like some receivers who have a many 2 catch games with one standout game in between. I see him being a consistent source of production for fantasy owners.

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 43.6 WR: 32
Auction Value: $13

Boyd is the 32nd ranked receiver with an ADP of 43.6. Many fantasy owners are buying into the hype of Joe Burrow, which shows with this high ADP. He’s currently ranked above the likes of AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, and DK Metcalf, all of which I predict to have better opportunities and subsequent better statistical seasons. While Boyd should have a great season, I don’t think he’ll eclipse 1000 yards. Because of this, I’m more comfortable taking Boyd in the mid-50s.

Most slot catches of 15+ yards in 2019:

Randall Cobb – 22
Chris Godwin – 21
Jarvis Landry – 19
Tyler Boyd – 18
Tyler Lockett – 18
Robert Woods – 18 pic.twitter.com/ZnvJD0l3Ie

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 28, 2020

Floor

Boyd has a high floor given his consistent production over the past two seasons. He seems to have put his injury concerns behind him and nows has a more competent quarterback throwing the ball to him. Despite a more crowded receiving group, Boyd’s talent and quarterback situation will prevent him from seeing a considerable drop in production.

Ceiling

On the other hand, Boyd has a very high ceiling. We just saw Boyd put up 90 and 1046 under a replacement-level quarterback and struggling Andy Dalton. I think there’s another level Boyd can reach, possibly 100+ receptions and 1200+ receiving yards. Although I’m not optimistic that Boyd will reach these levels with the Bengals, the potential for success is there with Boyd.

Bengals Offense

The Bengals have an explosive offense that shows the potential to be one of the most prolific in the league. They have weapons at the major skill positions, but the main concern is the offensive line. As mentioned before, an offensive line without the strength to protect the quarterback is going to limit Joe Burrow’s effectiveness. This could stifle the run and pass games, forcing quick three and outs. I don’t expect it to destroy Boyd’s season as he hasn’t played with a good offensive line his entire career, but this line is historically bad and could have some impact on the Tyler Boyd’s season.

Strength of Schedule

The Bengals schedule is manageable. While they play the Steelers (x2) and the Ravens (x2), they play many mediocre defenses. I don’t see the schedule having a major negative impact on Boyd’s production. For fantasy owners, I recommend removing Boyd in matchups against the Steelers and Ravens and insert him against certain matchups like the Colts in week 6, the Giants in week 12, and the Dolphins in week 13.

Final Thoughts

Tyler Boyd has become a household name for football fans and looks to be a huge piece in the Joe Burrow era for the Cincinnati Bengals. After two 1000 yard seasons, people are finally recognizing this man’s talent, especially considering that this production comes from poor quarterback and offensive line play. While these may prevent Boyd from reaching 1000 yards for a third straight season, I am confident that – despite injury – Boyd will have a very productive season and contribute to fantasy teams. At his ADP, he’s slightly overvalued but the potential to reach 1000 yard makes him it worth a fourth-round pick for certain teams.