Tyler Lockett Fantasy Football Outlook & 2020 Value

Tyler Lockett had a tremendous 2019 season eclipsing 1000 yards for the first time in his five-year career. Lockett became Russell Wilson’s most trusted confidant making big-play after big-play in key situations. With the emergence of DK Metcalf, the Seahawks have two deep-play receiving threats heading into the 2020 season. Also, with field general Russell Wilson still in his prime, I expect both Lockett and Metcalf to continue to have strong quarterback play.  While I am very high on Tyler Lockett, his ADP of 34 is a slight overreach. My analysis has the receiver closer to 40. What concerns me is not Tyler Lockett’s game, but rather the Seahawks offensive scheme and the split receptions between Lockett and Metcalf. Despite these concerns, I fully believe a healthy Lockett will post numbers similar to 2019.

2019 Recap

Tyler Lockett emerged as a true number one receiver for the Seahawks in 2019. In previous seasons, Lockett played second-fiddle to Doug Baldwin, averaging 50 receptions and 600 yards. Since Baldwin’s retirement, Lockett has reached his true potential with back-to-back 900 yard seasons. In 2019, Lockett had a career-high in receptions at 82 and receiving yards at 1057. Lockett also found the endzone with 8 receiving touchdowns, just shy of his 2018 career-high (10). Lockett produced in fantasy leagues, with 235 points for 14.7 points per game. Given his consistency in yards, I expect Lockett to have a similar 2020 season.

2020 Projections

Lineups projects that Tyler Lockett will have 68 receptions for 1006 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. For fantasy leagues, Lineups projects the receiving to put up 209 points for roughly 13.06 points per game. His receiving yards are projected to be lower than 2019 in part due to DK Metcalf’s impressive rookie campaign which included a number of deep plays. Also, Russell Wilson has always had low passing yardage per game, in part, due to his scrambling ability and offensive scheme. In 2018, Wilson only averaged 215.5 passing yards per game. In 2019, the number improved to 256.9 which is still by no means an impressive number. Splitting those already limited yards per game with Metcalf will probably lower his receiving yards in 2020.

Lineups’ reception projections are also in consideration with Metcalf’s performance. Having another receiver of Metcalf’s caliber will limit Lockett’s targets, similar to the Doug Baldwin days. While Metcalf’s growth may lower Lockett’s receptions,  it will not handicap the talented receiver.

Most slot TDs in last two seasons

1. Tyreek Hill – 12
2. Tyler Lockett – 11
3. Cooper Kupp – 10
3. Adam Thielen – 10 pic.twitter.com/vCu6YLKEZQ

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 23, 2020

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 34 WR: 20
Auction Value: $20

Tyler Lockett has an ADP of 34 and an auction value of 20. I am fearful of taking Lockett at this high of a position because of DK Metcalf. DK Metcalf shined on deep routes and another offseason to refine his route running skills will only lead to more production. Metcalf’s increase in production will most likely be at the expense of Tyler Lockett. Lockett will still produce as I have him at an ADP of roughly 35-40.

Floor

Despite Metcalf’s emergence, I have a high floor for the Tyler Lockett. He has great chemistry with Russell Wilson, and simply has the knack for getting open on Russell Wilson’s famous scrambling throws. Injuries have never been a concern for Lockett as he’s only missed one game his entire five-year career. Russell Wilson is a top-five quarterback in the NFL which will also help prevent a severe drop-off in production.  Lockett is a number one receiving threat who will continue to shine in 2020.

Ceiling

While I have a high floor for Lockett, I do not have a high ceiling. 2019 was a career year, as the Seahawks lacked a quality tight end and DK Metcalf was only a rookie learning the playbook. Because of this, Lockett was the premier focal point with a below-average supporting cast. In 2020, Greg Olsen – an older, but experienced tight end – and Phillip Dorsett, a decent WR3 will help to take away targets from Lockett. We have already mentioned DK Metcalf’s potential impact on Lockett’s statistics. All of these factors considered, I am a believer in Lockett but agree with Lineups that he will face a dip in targets and subsequent receptions.

Seahawks Offense

The Seahawks were committed to improving an offensive line in the 2019 offseason. In free agency, the team signed four offensive linemen. They also added depth in the draft, giving the team 18 viable options at the offensive line.  If these additions pan out, Russell Wilson and the receiving group could be even more dominant.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has shown potential in a handful of games. In a week nine victory against the Buccaneers 40-34, Schottenheimer designed a beautiful passing scheme. Russell Wilson with a career-high 378 passing yards for 5 touchdowns. However, the team hasn’t been consistent under his scheme. In a week 16 loss against the Cardinals, Wilson only threw for 169 yards and 1 touchdown. If Wilson and Schottenheimer can have a level of consistency in the passing game, Tyler Lockett will reap the benefits.

With the recent addition of Carlos Hyde, the Seahawks have a balanced running game that should complement their passing attack. I foresee a strong offensive season for the Seahawks.

Strength of Schedule

The Seahawks have the 13th most difficult schedule in 2020, according to SOS percentages. Their schedule against opposing pass defenses is even more daunting with 4 games against the Rams and 49ers, and games against the Bills, Patriots, and Jets. Other defenses such as the Eagles and Redskins will test the Seahawks offensive line and disrupt the passing game.

Strength of schedule plays an important role in fantasy projections but is not the end all be all. The Seahawks will face weaker defenses such as the Giants, Dolphins, and Falcons all of which provide ample opportunity for Lockett to get his fantasy numbers. I do not see this schedule having a strong impact on Lockett’s production in a positive or negative way.

Final thoughts

Tyler Lockett will excel in non-PPR leagues with his high touchdown numbers. Wilson and Lockett’s connection is elite, and I fully expect this tandem to find the red zone on numerous occasions. His receptions and receiving yards are expected to decline given DK Metcalf’s emergence in the passing game. However, I expect his chemistry with Wilson to prevent his numbers from slipping too low.