Tyreek Hill Football Outlook & Value 2020

Tyreek Hill missed four games last year due to suspension, but ranked 9th in PPR points per game in the 12 games that he did play. He also finished as the 27th best fantasy wideout in PPR formats, showcasing that none of what he was doing prior was any sort of fluke. Factoring in that he is in an excellent Kansas City Chiefs offense, and is playing with the best quarterback in the league, Patrick Mahomes, I would say things are pretty good for his 2020 outlook. Hill finished as the number one fantasy wideout back in 2018, where he had 14 total touchdowns, and also 1,479 yards on 87 catches. It wasn’t even really that close between him and the WR2. The year prior, Hill finished as WR4 in PPR leagues, so it has been a string of top five finishes when he has played a full season.

2019 Recap

Once Tyreek Hill returned, he also had Patrick Mahomes miss a few games with an injury and there were some fluky games where the pass offense didn’t do too well. Hill averaged 7.4 targets per game in his return, and nine targets per game in the three postseason games he played. Hill would have had an extremely strong year if his pace included four more regular season games or if you add in the postseason numbers to his play. Hill is a big time playmaker and he doesn’t need a ton of receptions to post big numbers. He has 32 receiving touchdowns in 59 games played for his career, averaging 69.7 yards per game, and 4.8 receptions. He also can add in a few yards on the ground as well.

2020 Projections

While I don’t believe anyone will catch Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill could be a close second. In a tremendous offense, and with what he has shown over the last three seasons, Hill is an elite fantasy wide receiver. Even in PPR leagues without the receptions of some of the others, he is going to catch 75+ balls and have over 1,300 yards of offense with double-digit touchdown upside. You are going to spend a first round pick on these types of numbers and that is certainly fine because Hill’s upside is massive.

Most yards on deep passes (targets thrown 20+ yards downfield) in a single season over the past decade (PFF)

2018 Tyreek Hill: 754 (on 41-such targets)
2015 Allen Robinson: 672 (46)
2012 Calvin Johnson: 652 (46)
2011 Jordy Nelson: 637 (21 – sheesh)
2019 Stefon Diggs: 635 (29)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 25, 2020

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: First Round Pick

Auction Price: $44

The suspension threw a wrench into the top five finishes Tyreek Hill had in the prior two seasons, and he was headed for a first round pick again last season before that news came down. Hill is going to be a fantasy beast as long as he stays healthy, and kicking him off as a WR1 is a great start to drafts. The weekly upside is there, and while he might drop a few bad weeks in there, his overall outcome should finish as a WR5+ type season in any format. Look for Hill to be off the board early, as I would be surprised to see him in the second round of 12-man leagues.

Floor

Tyreek Hill is going to be around 7-9 targets most weeks, and is going to score a ton of touchdowns. The weekly floor might have a few duds mixed into his overall season, but I can’t see him finishing outside of the top eight in a healthy year with this Chiefs offense. It is a creative offense that continues to get him the ball, and he is in the prime of his career right now. Hill is an excellent floor play when looking at things overall, and that is in any format.

Ceiling

Outside of Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill has the second highest ceiling for me in terms of fantasy points when all is said and done. We look at what he has done over the past two seasons before 2019, and he has broken off monster years. Those are certainly numbers he can hit again, and I am willing to bet on that happening. Hill is a strong ceiling threat each week, but hitting 250+ fantasy points over the course of the season is what I am really eying.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense

Part of the reason why the Chiefs are so highly valued is that the offense is built for fantasy production. Andy Reid is a tremendous offensive coach and has always been excellent for fantasy football. Adding in all the players and talent is the other piece of the puzzle. Kansas City averaged 29.9 points per game and 384.3 yards per game overall. The Chiefs averaged 3.5 touchdowns per game, and were one of the top offenses through the air once again. Expect more of the same from this offense, which has dominated over the last two seasons, but even when Alex Smith was under center they were a strong fantasy offense.

Strength Of Schedule

Quite frankly, I do not care about the Chiefs schedule. It does not matter, as this offense will hang 30 on any team in the league. If this were a lesser offense, I would have more worry about their schedule, but this is just a different animal we are talking about. The defenses in the division are on the tougher side, even though the Chargers struggled last season. That secondary should be very good, but once again it is not a huge concern. Denver should be as well, adding a few key pieces over the offseason. The Chiefs will also take on the Patriots, Bills, and Ravens as three defenses that finished inside the top ten in pass defense last season. To point out some glaring matchups for the Chiefs wide receivers, Houston, Carolina, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay are all on the schedule for 2020. Even in games against the Saints and Ravens, both offenses should be firing back and forth given their ability to score. They are going to play a lot of good teams, but Hill is going to be a strong play regardless of matchup.