Week 11 QB Start, Sit Fantasy Strategy: Is Winston Startable with Brees Out?

The headline of this week’s quarterback play is Brees is Brees is out for several weeks with several broken ribs and a collapsed lung. His devastating injury has pushed Jameis Winston to be the new starter in New Orleans. For fantasy managers, huge questions are now being raised about the Saints’ new starter. Can he thrive in a Saints’ offense that rewards fantasy managers, or will he collapse into his usual interception-heavy play style. To find the answer to that question and many more, read my Week 11 QB Start/Sit fantasy strategy below.

Start:

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Roethlisberger has completely turned around this Steelers offense this season after suffering from injury for most of 2019. Pittsburgh went from being the 27th most scoring offense last year to the 5th most this year entering week 11. Fantasy-wise, Roethlisberger has been pretty reliable. He falls just outside of the top 10 at QB12, but has now posted very strong back-to-back weeks. In his last two games he is averaging 27.18 points per game, and is preparing to play a very bad Jacksonville defense this weekend. The Jaguars allow the 3rd most points to opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. I see Roethlisberger has a very good start this weekend.

Cam Newton, New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Cam Newton has been inconsistent to say the least this season. For a player who had some of the best fantasy seasons for any QB ever, this has been a down-year for the Patriot. He’s averaging a dismal 18.6 fantasy points this season. He’s playing a Houston defense this weekend, however, that is below average. They allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Notably, Houston also ranks as the worst rushing defense in the league, allowing 167.4 yards per game. Against a quarterback who has been known for rushing throughout his career, I like his odds for running some QB option runs. I expect a far above average game for the veteran quarterback.

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Drew Brees suffered a collapsed lung last game against the 49ers. Jameis Winston stepped in his place and played decent. He completed 6 passes of 10 attempts for 63 yards. The numbers weren’t outstanding, and Winston has been known to be a hit or miss fantasy QB, but I like his chances of doing better on Sunday. He’s playing a disastrous Falcons defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Winston’s biggest concern has been his interception problem, that shouldn’t be an issue against Atlanta who ranks 22nd in interceptions this year with just 7 on the season. He is a slightly more risky start among most quarterbacks but has huge upside on this Saints offense.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Jets
Justin Herbert got an infamous haircut this week that many say make him look 17 years old. If I were a defensive coordinator, however, I’d still be intimidated by the quarterback. He has been one of the premiere rookie talents we’ve seen play this year. He is averaging 291 passing yards, and 2.38 touchdowns per game, both come in at 5th overall. He has scored the 8th most fantasy points among all quarterbacks despite not playing Week 1 and already having a bye week. He has scored 20+ fantasy points in 6 consecutive games this year. I like his streak continued through week 11 as he’s playing a bad New York Jets team that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to fantasy quarterbacks. Like most weeks, Herbert is a great starting option.

Sit:

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
I don’t think Joe Burrow will be able to pull off anything special this weekend. We have seen glimpses of his enormous potential before this season, like when he had 4 total touchdowns against Cleveland earlier this season, but I don’t see it happening again on Sunday. He is playing a Washington defense that ranks 1st in fewest passing yards allowed per game. They also sack the 5th most in the league with 3.1 a game. Against the player who has been sacked the 2nd most this season, it is a recipe for disaster on the rookie. Avoid starting Burrow this weekend.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
Tom Brady is coming off a really strong game against the Panthers, I just don’t like his odds of having a repeat performance. He is playing a Rams defense this weekend that has allowed the 3rd fewest points to opposing teams quarterbacks. Against an increasingly immobile quarterback in Brady, the Rams (who have the 3rd most sacks per game this year with 3.4) should be having plenty of celebrations. All-in-all, it’s just a really bad matchup for Brady. I wouldn’t be surprised if he only scored in the low-teens in fantasy points. Look for someone else to start if you have Brady rostered.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jared Goff will be on the other sideline of Tom Brady, similarly, facing a tough matchup. The Buccaneers defense ranks 4th best against opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. Tampa bay ranks top 10 against passing yards, and top 5 in sacks. They are, by any measure, a problem for quarterbacks. Goff has already been struggling this season, averaging just 16.7 fantasy points per game, placing him at QB18. I don’t see him able to outperform his averages against such a tough game. Bench Jared Goff for his Monday Night game and find a different quarterback before Sunday.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
Derek Carr is one of those quarterbacks that is a strong player but disappointing in fantasy. He relies on short, high percentage passes, and a strong run game that finds the endzone when in opposing teams’ territory. It’s a recipe for low fantasy numbers but winning games. He is playing the divisional rival Kansas City Chiefs this weekend in a tough matchup. They rank 9th best against quarterbacks in fantasy. I can’t see Carr outperforming his average of 16.4 fantasy points per game. Look for another QB to start this weekend.