Week 16 QB Start, Sit Fantasy Strategy: Winston Defying the Odds Lately

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Start ‘em

Jameis Winston

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, two of Winston’s favorite receivers, are injured and both questionable for week 16. Evans has been gone for a couple games, but Chris Godwin’s injury is newer. Still, Winston is putting up big fantasy points against some tougher defenses with a 34.7 in week 14 and a 32.7 in week 15. He’s been a pretty good fantasy quarterback all year, with a couple of highs at 41.2 and 37.4 points in PPR leagues in week 4 and week 12 respectively. Houston, their next opponent, has allowed a lot of points to opposing quarterbacks lately including 23.9 to Drew Lock in week 13 and 24.2 to Ryan Tannehill in week 14, so I’m expecting a big game for Winston. Maybe not as big as he is used to when he can throw to Godwin and Evans, but I’m expecting a big game nonetheless.

Deshaun Watson

I think The Texans matchup with the Buccaneers is going to be a high scoring game for both quarterbacks. The Buccaneers defense has been pretty good lately, but they allowed a 22.6 point game to Brissett and the Colts even though they were lacking T.Y. Hilton. Watson and the Texans have a stronger offense than a lot of the teams the Buccaneers have been playing lately. The Buccaneers also allow an average 276.8 passing yards per game, the 3rd most in the NFL, so I’m expecting a big game for Watson.

Matt Ryan

The Falcons have turned it on at the end of the season and are coming off of their second straight win in a huge upset against the 49ers. Matt Ryan put up 19.1 fantasy points in his matchup against the 49ers, a great statline considering the 49ers are one of the best pass defenses in the league right now. Granted, they were affected pretty heavily by injuries in this matchup, but nonetheless it was a promising game for the Falcons. I think they’re going to continue their streak this week against the Jaguars who have allowed some big games to opposing quarterbacks like in their games against the Chargers and the Titans.

Jimmy Garoppolo

I think Garoppolo and the 49ers are going to have a big game against the Rams this Saturday. The Rams just allowed the Cowboys to put up 44 points, and I think the 49ers offense is capable of matching that. Garoppolo has been on and off this season when it comes to fantasy, but I think this will be an on game for him as I don’t see the Rams being too great when it comes to stopping the powerful 49ers offense.

Fantasy Football Strategy Podcast Week 16 (Free)

Jacoby Brissett

Brissett hasn’t been putting up the biggest scores lately, due in part to T.Y. Hilton’s absence from their offense due to injury. T.Y. Hilton is still questionable, but will only be played if he is fully healthy. Brissett has shown that he is capable of having a big game without Hilton, which he did in week 14 against the Buccaneers with a 22.6 point fantasy performance. I think he’s capable of bouncing back from a tough loss to the Saints and putting up another good game against a Carolina defense that hasn’t been too strong lately.

Sit ‘em

Josh Allen

I’m expecting a lower-scoring game for Allen against the Patriots. I think they’re going to focus more on the run against the tough Patriots secondary, and therefore Allen isn’t going to have the biggest fantasy game. He has potential to score big based on his ability to run (he has the most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks this season) but I don’t think that’s enough to warrant starting him over some of the other quarterbacks on this list. I think it’ll be a great game, but I don’t think Allen is going to score enough Fantasy points to warrant a start.

Tom Brady

I don’t think Brady is going to be super productive against the Bills defense. Brady’s past two games have been 10.8 points against Kansas City and 12.9 against Cincinnati. If he can only put up 12.9 points against the 1-13 Bengals (no offense), I think he’s going to have trouble with the top-5 ranked Bills passing defense. The Patriots offense has been their weak point for the second half of the season and I think it will continue to be against the Bills.

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield has had a couple bigger games this season but for the most part has been a high-teens scoring fantasy quarterback (with a couple nasty exceptions, like a -2 point game against the 49ers in week 5). I think he’s going to have another low-scoring game against the unforgiving Baltimore defense so if you were thinking about starting Mayfield you might want to reconsider.

Sam Darnold

Darnold has shown some fantasy potential this season and even put together a nice 3-game 20+ point streak in weeks 10-12, almost reaching 30 points in week 12. However, they’re up against Pittsburgh this week which doesn’t bode well for Darnold and the Jets. Pittsburgh leads the league in sacks and takeaways and I don’t think the Jets are going to be able to handle a defense this strong.

Carson Wentz

The last time the Eagles faced the Cowboys this season Wentz finished the game with his lowest fantasy score of the season, a 6.8 in PPR leagues. Given how the Cowboys played against the Rams last week, I think we’re going to be seeing a similarly low score from Wentz this week. I don’t think it will be as low, as they’ve found a new weapon on offense with Greg Ward Jr. who could certainly help them out, and the Cowboys did allow Goff a 17.6 game despite winning handily. However, I don’t think he will be worth the start in this matchup.

I'm a student at UC Santa Barbara studying English. I've been watching football for almost my entire life. A couple of years ago, I started to really get into statistics and became a lot more interested in the NFL and have been really excited about it ever since.

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