Congratulations on making your fantasy championship. In all likelihood, you own several players near the top of their positions. When I name Tyreek Hill, Derrick Henry, and Travis Kelce, there’s a good chance you have one of them rostered. But everyone knows it is the quarterback who averages the most points in fantasy, they often make or break your team. Unless you have one of the top fantasy quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, for example) you are probably asking yourself who to start. To find out, read my week 16 quarterback sit/start strategy.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, at Dallas Cowboys
It’s increasingly likely that Jalen Hurts has taken Carson Wentz’ job as the Eagles’ starting quarterback. The rookie quarterback out of Oklahoma completed 24 of 44 passes for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns against Arizona last week. The 37.82 fantasy point game was not enough for a win, but was enough to cement his role as the leader of this team. This weekend he plays a much worse passing defense in the Dallas Cowboys that allows the 12th most points to quarterbacks in fantasy. Hurts is a must start in the championship.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, vs Denver Broncos
Speaking of young quarterbacks, Justin Herbert is currently the favorite to win offensive rookie of the year (-450 odds). The Oregon alum just tied Baker Mayfield’s record of rookie passing touchdowns at 27. Fantasy-wise, Herbert has been largely consistent all year long. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 9 of his 14 games this season, including his 27.96 point performance last week against the Raiders. This weekend he plays a Denver defense that has allowed the 9th most points to opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. Herbert is a must-start for managers that don’t have a top 5 quarterback.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Detroit Lions
Tom Brady is coming off a fairly strong fantasy game. The six-time Super Bowl champion tallied 390 passing yards, and 2 touchdowns for a fantasy game of 23.4 fantasy points. He will look forward to playing a Lions team on Saturday that allows the 4th most points to quarterbacks in fantasy. There is no reason to believe Brady can’t string together back-to-back strong performances. Brady is a great start in your fantasy championship.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns, at New York Jets
Baker Mayfield is coming off a better game than his fantasy score indicates. He tallied 20.98 fantasy points against a strong Giants defense. In the last 4 weeks, Mayfield is averaging 24.72 fantasy points per game. He is set to continue his hot-streak this weekend against a Jets team that allows 21.84 fantasy points per game, 3rd most in the league. He is a strong start in week 16.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears, at Jacksonville Jaguars
Mitchell Trubisky is scoring an underwhelming 17.6 fantasy points per game since becoming the starter again in Chicago 4 weeks ago. He has a chance, however, to boost his average this weekend against a poor Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars allow the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks out of any team in the league. He is not a top play at quarterback, but he is far from a bad start for the fantasy championship.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, at Las Vegas Raiders
Tua is my sleeper pick for week 16 fantasy quarterback starts. The Hawaiian native is only averaging 15.86 fantasy points per game as a starter, but I think that number increases after this weekend. It is no secret that his opponent, the Raiders, have own of the weakest passing defenses in the league. They allow the 10th most points to quarterbacks in fantasy, 19.8 per game to be exact. The addition of Salvon Ahmed should only help Tua’s performance. I’m predicting a fantasy game of over 20 points. Tua is a good start to close the season.
Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins
Marcus Mariota was exciting to watch last week in his replacement of the injured Derek Carr, but I don’t like chances of having another strong fantasy performance. He has a tough matchup against a Dolphins’ team that allows an average passer rating of just 83.9, 3rd lowest in the league. He will also need to avoid cornerback Xavien Howard, who has more interceptions than any player in the league (9). Mariota is too risky of a play to be starting in your championship.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, at Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Ryan is coming off his third best fantasy game of the season. He torched Buccaneers with 356 passing yards, and 3 touchdowns for a fantasy game of 27.84 fantasy points. I don’t like his odds, however, of having a repeat performance. This weekend he will be playing a Chiefs defense that ranks 14th against quarterbacks in fantasy, allowing just 18 points per game to the position. I think Ryan will struggle against this much secondary. Look for another quarterback to start in your championship.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, vs New York Giants
Lamar Jackson is red-hot right now with 3 consecutive games of at least 25 fantasy points. Last weekend he put up 243 passing yards and 3 touchdowns against Jacksonville for 29.22 fantasy points. My hot-take for this article is that Lamar Jackson struggles against the Giants defense. Even Baker Mayfield, whose team blew out the Giants last weekend, scored just 20.98 fantasy points against them. In-fact the Giants defense ranks 5th best against quarterbacks, allowing just 16.1 fantasy points per game. I think there are better options at quarterback than to risk it with Jackson for the championship.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, vs Los Angeles Rams
Russell Wilson is coming off a disappointing game against Washington. The Seahawk, who was an MVP candidate earlier in the season, had a fantasy game of just 12 points. In the last 4 weeks he is averaging just 15.9 points per game. This weekend he plays the best defense against quarterbacks in fantasy. The Rams allow just 13.22 fantasy points on average to the position. Look for another quarterback to finish your fantasy season.
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