Week 16 TE Rankings & Projections (PPR): Consistency

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2019 TE Fantasy Turnout

Tight end production this year started off slow. As the season has gone on and conditions have gotten colder, certain tight ends play a huge role in their offense. Given the likes of several wide receiver injuries, many tight ends for certain teams are getting more targets. Below is the top 25 TEs through 15 weeks of the season. 

RankTeamGRecYardTDOpponentProjection
1. Travis KelceKC14861,1314Chicago Bears14.92
2. Zach ErtzPHI14848886Dallas Cowboys15.8
3. Mark AndrewsBAL14587598Cleveland Browns10.72
4. Darren WallerOAK14801,0013Los Angeles Chargers11.92
5. George KittleSF12738884Los Angeles Rams15.2
6. Austin HooperATL11616606Jacksonville Jaguars13.06
7. Jared CookNO12385776Tennessee Titans11.78
8. Hunter HenryLAC10455654Oakland Raiders10.84
9. Darren FellsHOU14313147Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.11
10. Kyle RudolphMIN14383606Green Bay Packers9.48
11. Jason WittenDAL14574914Philadelphia Eagles8.06
12. Noah FantDEN14375483Detroit Lions9.31
13. Greg OlsenCAR12485522Indianapolis Colts0
14. Tyler HigbeeLAR12525462San Francisco 49ers11.28
15. Jack DoyleIND13404254Carolina Panthers9.86
16. Evan EngramNYG8444673Washington Redskins0
17. Dallas GoedertPHI13454514Dallas Cowboys9.45
18. Ryan GriffinNYJ13343205Pittsburgh Steelers0.56
19. Jonnu SmithTEN13323762New Orleans Saints8.81
20. Jimmy GrahamGB14333823Minnesota Vikings6.13
21. Eric EbronIND11313753Carolina Panthers0
22. Mike GesickiMIA13414542Cincinnati Bengals9.16
23. Blake JarwinDAL13303513Philadelphia Eagles5.43
24. Gerald EverettLAR11374082San Francisco 49ers0
25. Will DisslySEA6232624Arizona Cardinals0

Good Matchups

For one single spot in the fantasy lineup, consistency for tight ends are key. While the Chiefs are facing a usually stiff defense of the Chicago Bears, there is no reason to believe Kelce won’t reach or surpass his projections for this week. The Bears are 15th against tight ends for fantasy production. Given that Kelce hasn’t received a TD pass since Week 11, look for Mahomes to take shots at him in the red zone. The Bears’ defense also ranks 6th against wide receivers, so that may make him even more of a target and emphasis. Regardless, he will still get his targets and continue to add to his position leading 1,131 yards this season.

A big game with playoff stakes on the line between the Eagles and Cowboys makes Zach Ertz a great option this week. With numerous wide receiver and running back injuries, Ertz will certainly be a focal point of the offense. He is also looking to bounce back after a 2 rec 38 yds performance in Week 7 against Dallas. The Eagles will also be at home, and 5 out of 6 TDs for Ertz this year have been at home. The Cowboys are far from great against tight ends and this is a nice matchup for him. 

Some other great matchups for tight ends this week include George Kittle, Austin Hooper, and Hunter Henry. Kittle had 1 of his 3 hundred yard games this season against the Rams in the 1st matchup. Look for him and the 49ers to get back on track with a win, and that starts with Kittle being involved. Austin Hooper will have a favorable matchup against the Jaguars. Coming back from injury slow after 2 games, he will be in a much better rhythm this week. Hunter Henry is also looking to bounce back after 6 total catches and 78 total yards the past 3 weeks. He will face the 2nd worst team in the NFL for fantasy production versus tight ends in the Raiders defense. 

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Bad Matchups

Some tight ends with bad matchups include Jason Witten, Tyler Higbee, and Jack Doyle. The Eagles are 4th for defense against TE fantasy production this year. Given that the Cowboys will be playing at Philadelphia, look for them to establish the run game early and Amari Cooper involved. Tyler Higbee’s matchup against the 49ers defense will be tough strictly off the versatility of the 49er defense.

Without stellar play from Jared Goff, he may be a non-factor this game. Finally, Jack Doyle will be going against the 7th ranked Carolina Panther defense against TEs. Given the terrible run defense of the Panthers, look for the Colts to pound with Mack early and often. If they are able to get in the red zone consistently, Doyle’s value rises. Yet and still, do not expect a big day from him by any means.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Strategy

Week to week production has been consistent for most tight ends. While Kelce has only had 4 TDs this season, he has found a way to still lead tight ends for production and is the most reliable. Mark Andrews is such a threat given how prolific the Ravens offense is. They continuously find themselves in the red zone, but also utilize three different tight ends at times. 

If recency bias should ever be utilized, tight end is a great position for that. Tight end is the one position where the role does not change as much from week to week. In the past 6 games, Ertz has had a total of 464 yds and 5 total TDs. This is the very same reason to be nervous about a tight end like Hunter Henry given his slump.Yet and still, he has home run ability and could explode against a terrible Raiders defense.

Matchup is huge, but also how prolific the run game may be against the opponent. If the offense is clicking and often in the red zone, start that tight end over someone whose offense is trending down. At this time of the year, several teams are also banged up. With teams dealing with several receiver injuries such as the Eagles and Buccaneers, do not miss out on TEs that may have big games. Given this is fantasy playoff time, go all in for the home run or for the TEs who are trending up.

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