NFL Conference Championship Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday January 24, 3:05 PM ET The Packers and Buccaneers met up in Week 6 of the NFL season, and Tampa Bay dominated Green Bay 38-10. The Packers had no answer on offense with only 201 yards to show. Aaron Rodger threw two interceptions in the game, with one of them being a pick-six. The Buccaneers were a better team that day, but that game happened in October, and now three months later, these teams look a lot different, and adding a Super Bowl matchup on the line will make for an interesting game. Aaron Rodgers is presumably the NFL's MVP this season and has only thrown three interceptions since the first matchup with Tampa Bay. Rodgers can thank many people for his success this season, but his biggest thanks will have to go to Davante Adams. He has been no doubt the best receiver in the NFL and Rodgers go-to target in almost any down and situation this season. According to PFF, Adams is graded as the number one receiver in the NFL and will be looking to have a better performance this time against Tampa Bay compared to the first outing. The Buccaneers defense was able to limit Adams to six receptions and 61 yards in Week 6. It was his lowest catch percentage of the year, and he and Rodgers could not get on the same page. Tampa Bay's defense ranks fifth in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. However, the secondary is graded out just ok, according to PFF. The Packers have to give their best offensive weapon more looks this Sunday. They will want to get Adams in single coverage or on Sean Murphy-Bunting, who grades out as the 74th ranked cornerback. Green Bay's biggest success might be to get Aaron Jones going on the ground. Last week, the Packers had 188 rushing yards, which was a huge part of Los Angeles's win. If Green Bay can get the ball going on the ground again, this will open up play-action passing for Rodgers, and we could see a similar outcome of success as we did last week with the Packers. On the other side of the ball, the Packers will have to slow down a bonafide winner in Tom Brady. The Buccaneers have one of the best offenses in the NFL, ranking third in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. At the beginning of the season, the Packers' defense was getting torched from every opponent, allowing 344 yards per game in their first 11 games. Green Bay allowed over 300 yards and 38 points to the Buccaneers in their first matchup. Things have changed drastically since the beginning of December. In their last six games, including their playoff game against the Rams, Green Bay is holding opponents to under 300 yards per game. Only two of their last six games did the team hit the 300-yard mark. Although the Green Bay defense ranks 17th in DVOA, it has drastically changed at the right time of the year. Tampa Bay has plenty of weapons to go to, however. According to PFF, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and Antonio Brown all rank in the top-40 at their positions, with Brady grading as the second-best quarterback. Many of the Buccs success came from the defense and special teams in their first game against the Packers. 14 points were scored from non-offensive touchdowns, and Tampa Bay was gifted a short field on one of the drives. Brady had under 200 yards passing but didn't need to do much in the win. This weekend is going to be different. Tampa Bay is also playing much better offense, averaging 435 yards of offense in their last six games, including the playoffs. Brady has the offense firing on all cylinders and will be looking to make it to his 10th Super Bowl, while Rodgers will try and get the championship game monkey off his back on Sunday at home.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday January 24, 6:40 PM ET In Week 6, the Buffalo Bills fell to the Kansas City Chiefs at home 26-17. The game was pushed back to Monday after the Chiefs had to reschedule its game against the Patriots the week before due to Covid. Now, the two teams will square off on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium for a chance to head to Super Bowl LV. The health of Patrick Mahomes surrounds the biggest news heading into Sunday's game. In the Chiefs' win against the Browns, Mahomes was tackled hard into the ground, causing him to leave for the game's remainder. Reports came out Monday morning, stating that Mahomes suffered a tweaked nerve and not a concussion during the tackle. His status for Sunday's game remains uncertain, but Chiefs Nation hopes that the MVP quarterback is good to go for its matchup against Buffalo. The Bills are the real deal this season, led by Josh Allen. He grades out as the fifth-best quarterback, according to PFF, and will be able to take advantage of the Kansas City secondary. In the matchup earlier this season, the Bills were held to 206 total yards of offense and lost possession battle by close to 20 minutes. Buffalo couldn't stay on the field, which is how the Chiefs could run away with a victory. The Bills have improved since that Week 6 loss and loss one game since. Allen will have to create long sustainable drives to keep the Chiefs offense off the field to stay in striking distance. The Bills have found ways to win despite being outgained on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo will need to change that this week if they want a chance to move onto the Super Bowl. The Chiefs defense ranks 22nd in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. However, if Buffalo cannot outgain the Chiefs this week, if Mahomes is healthy, then the Bills aren't going to be able to sneak away with another win. Fortunately, Buffalo does have an offense that can exploit the Chiefs' secondary, even with All-Pro Safety Tyrann Mathieu lurking in the secondary. For Kansas City, it's hard to see the Chiefs going to back-to-back Super Bowls if Mahomes is not healthy for Sunday. Kansas City would go with Chad Henne, capable of running the Andy Reid offense but not to the same degree as Mahomes. Henne player roughly a quarter and a half of football and went 6/8 with 66 yards and one interception. The Chiefs were leading when Henne came in, so Kansas City played more conservatively to preserve the lead. However, next Sunday, it might not be the same. Buffalo has been getting outgained on offense by its opponents during the playoffs despite coming away with wins. The Bills defense ranks 12th in DVOA but has struggled to defend the run this season. Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Chiefs on Sunday, Buffalo will still need to find a way to limit the Kansas City rushing attack. The Chiefs could change the game if they can capitalize on the ground. This will open up play action for Henne or Mahomes and create more damage against the Bills defense. According to PFF, three of the four starting Bills secondary ranks in the top-30 in their positions. Trying to attack Buffalo straight up downfield could be difficult, but using a healthy ground and pound attack, could be enough to get the Chiefs moving forward. At the end of the day, this game comes down to if Mahomes can play and how healthy he will be if he does. As of writing, Kansas City is a three-point home favorite, assuming Mahomes can play. If he is out, then the line could flip to Buffalo as a heavy favorite. Regardless, Mahomes playing on Sunday makes this matchup a lot more interesting, with the Bills playing great football over the last month and a half of the season.