NFL Odds Week 6

Week 6 of the NFL season is here! A wild Week 5 brought us crazy late-game comebacks and upsets. COVID-19 continues to be an issue as the Broncos and Patriots game was postponed to next Sunday, and the Titans and Bills play on Tuesday. Scheduling has become a mess and is starting to take effect in Week 6, so pay attention to schedule adjustments. Week 6 will consist of two Monday Night Football games and no Thursday Night game, as of writing this. The Packers are 4-0 ATS as the Cowboys and Jets have not covered a game sitting at 0-5 ATS. The Saints are 4-0 to the over heading into their Monday night game, and the Cardinals are 5-0 to the under. Let's take a look at the early lines for Week 6.

Week 6 of the NFL season is here! A wild Week 5 brought us crazy late-game comebacks and upsets. COVID-19 continues to be an issue as the Broncos and Patriots game was postponed to next Sunday, and the Titans and Bills play on Tuesday. Scheduling has become a mess and is starting to take effect in Week 6, so pay attention to schedule adjustments. Week 6 will consist of two Monday Night Football games and no Thursday Night game, as of writing this. The Packers are 4-0 ATS as the Cowboys and Jets have not covered a game sitting at 0-5 ATS. The Saints are 4-0 to the over heading into their Monday night game, and the Cardinals are 5-0 to the under. Let's take a look at the early lines for Week 6.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET The Houston Texans are 1-0 since firing Bill O'Brien. They took down the Jaguars 30-14 at home to pick up their first win of the season. The Titans took an early bye week as the team had a COVID-19 outbreak. Now, they play on Tuesday night against the Bills in Buffalo. Tennessee opens up as 3.5-point favorites at home, but that could change after Tuesday. The new-look Texans might feel liberated after the "BOB" firing as they had 486 yards of offense on Sunday. The Titans have the 18th most efficient defense in the NFL and rank 23rd in opponents passing yards per game. Watson is still a top-10 quarterback, according to PFF.com. The Titans, however, have been getting it done through the air instead of the ground this season. Derrick Henry is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and only has two rushing touchdowns in 2020. Houston's pass defense has been weak thus far, and Tennessee ranks fifth in passing efficiency, according to Footballoutsiders.com. This could be a high scoring game and might come down to which secondary can make a play.

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET The Chicago Bears are coming off a huge Thursday night win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are fortunate to have the mini-bye before heading to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina is a surprising 3-2 and is currently a 2.5-point favorite over Chicago. The Bears could arguably be 1-4 this season, catching multiple breaks early in the year, and is the reason why they are underdogs this week despite the better record. The Bears need to figure out how to move the football on this Panthers mediocre defense this week. Carolina's defensive efficiency ranks 28th, and outside of Briand Burnes graded at 81.5 on PFF, no one the defense ranks above 67. Chicago's offense has its own problems ranking 27th in yards per game and efficiency. The Bears defense should limit the Panthers offense, but Matt Ruhle has impressed in the early part of the season. The Panthers rank in the top half of offensive efficiency and can run the ball effectively. The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run this season, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. If the Panthers can run the ball, then it could be a long day for Chicago.

Washington Football Team @ New York Giants (-3)

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET Washington and New York square off to see who can avoid last place in the NFC East this Sunday. The Giants feel 37-34 to the Cowboys on Sunday while the Football Team lost to the Rams at home 30-10. Neither team is very good, as this could be a sloppy game this Sunday at the Meadowlands. The Giants had 300 yards of offense against a terrible Cowboys defense and could not pull off the win. They switched between Kyle Allen and Alex Smith at quarterback and could not do anything offensively for Washington. Both team's strengths and weaknesses play off of each other, making this a fairly even matchup. Both offenses' efficiency rank in the bottom five of the NFL, Washington's defense ranks fourth in defensive efficiency, while the Giants rank 11th. The Giants cannot move the ball by the pass or run, but Washington's run offense isn't terrible. One odd thing is that the Football Team is last in yards per carry. However, they are 15th in rushing efficiency. The Giants have been good at stopping the run this season, holding opponents to 3.7 yards per attempts. Overall, this game will be sloppy and most likely be the least bet game on the board.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET After starting the season 0-5, the Atlanta Falcons finally parted ways with Dan Quinn after losing to Carolina. Minnesota still cannot figure things out as the Seattle Seahawks came from behind to beat the Vikings on Sunday night. Now, two teams combined for a 1-9 record will square to salvage their seasons, maybe. The Houston Texans came away with a win after firing Bill O'Brien, so maybe Atlanta has hope this Sunday. The Vikings offense continues to struggle in the passing game in 2020. Despite having two receivers rank in the top-5 of PFF, Dalvin Cook ranking fourth, and Kirk Cousins ranking ninth, this offense is 16th in efficiency and 24th in passing efficiency. Fortunately, the Falcons defense has been sub-par this season, especially in the secondary. Atlanta themselves could see a jolt this week with a new voice in the locker room. The Falcons offense has been pretty consistent but cannot stop anyone on the defensive side. Atlanta can slow down opponents rushing attacks. If they limit Cook and force Cousins to make plays, then they have a chance to win a game in 2020 finally.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET Detroit heads to Jacksonville for a Week 6 showdown. The Lions had a bye week in Week 5 while the Jaguars fell to the Texans on the road. Both teams have struggled early on this season, although expectations were never high for either club. This could be a high scoring matchup as both teams can move the football. The Jaguars are one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, ranking sixth, according to Football Outsiders. As long as the Lions have Matt Stafford at quarterback, then points will always be available. Despite ranking 23rd in offensive efficiency, they have seen production out of their offensive line and skilled players. Stafford has started slow, but this could be the week he puts it together thanks to the Jaguars having one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Jaguars safety Jarrod Wilson ranks fifth in PFF's position, and no one else in the secondary ranks in the top-50. The Jaguars offense has been surprisingly good under Garnder Minshew with the whole offense clicking.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET Cleveland and Pittsburgh have a huge AFC North matchup this week, as both teams have four wins on the season. The Steelers had the week off as they were expected to play the Titans last week, and the Browns have rattled off four straight wins to stay on pace with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. A battle in the trenches will go down between the Browns rush offense and the Steelers front seven. Cleveland is second in rushing efficiency and averages 5.5 yards per attempt. Pittsburgh ranks first in defensive rushing efficiency and holds opponents to 3.3 yards per attempt. However, the other side of the ball could be everything in this AFC North showdown. The Steelers offense has just been ok this season, and the Browns defense is the 17th most efficient in the NFL. All eyes will be on the Browns offense and Steelers defense, but this could depend on whether the Steelers can move the ball themselves.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-9)

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET The line between the Colts and Bengals is a big of a surprise as Indianapolis opens as a 9-point favorite this week. Indy fell to the Browns on the road, and the Bengals could not figure anything out offensively against a very good Ravens defense. This week, the Bengals offense has to go up against the Colts defense, which currently ranks first in defensive efficiency. Despite not playing the best offenses this season, Indianapolis has stopped the mediocre offense they have faced, and the Bengals have just that. Joe Burrow has been fun to watch, but the offensive line has hurt any life Cincinnati has. The overall talent is not there yet, although they are taking steps in the right direction. The Colts have an edge on both sides of the ball, but 9-points feels like too much this week.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday October 18, 1:00 PM ET The Baltimore Ravens continue to roll this season as the Philadelphia Eagles are finally starting to find some footing despite losing to the Steelers this week. Eagles opening up as a touchdown plus dog is a bit of a surprise, but the Eagles have not shown much this season. With the number of injuries the Eagles have on the offensive side, it is hard to see how Philadelphia moves the football on Baltimore's defense. The discrepancy between the Eagles offensive efficiency (31st) compared to the Ravens defensive efficiency (9th) is staggering. Even the Eagles defense has just been ok and will need to figure out a way to slow down a rushing attack lead by Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have not had much success through the air this year but can move the football on the ground. Now, the Eagles need to limit the run to stay in this game.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins NO LINE

Sunday October 18, 4:05 PM ET As of writing this, there is no line for the Week 6 matchup between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, but there is no reason to not talk about this AFC East matchup. The game between the Jets and Dolphins is one of many schedule changes thanks to COVID-19, so the game has not been posted. Overall, the Jets are bad, and the Dolphins are bad but not as bad as the Jets. Miami even beat the 49ers on Sunday, helping them win their second game of the season. The Jets have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, ranking 28th in offensive efficiency, while the Dolphins ranks 31st in defensive efficiency. Will this be the week the Jets finally score some points? We'll see. On the other hand, the Dolphins currently have Ryan Fitzpatrick playing like a top-10 quarterback, according to PFF. The Jets defense is top-10 in the league, but Miami might be able to surprise them this week given the play of their quarterback.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday October 18, 4:25 PM ET Green Bay and Tampa Bay might be one of the best matchups of Week 6. A battle between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady will be must-watch TV Sunday afternoon. Green Bay opening as a 1.5-point favorite says a lot about what oddsmakers think of the Packers heading to Tampa. Both offenses rank in the top-10 in offensive efficiency heading into this matchup. The biggest mismatch is between the defense as the Tampa Bay ranks second, and the Packers rank 26th. The Buccaneers have had a ton of injuries on the offensive side, which was part of why they fell to Chicago last Thursday. If they can get healthy before Sunday, then this could be huge for Tampa Bay. The Packers, on the other hand, will need to figure out how to give cornerback Jaire Alexander some help. He is graded as the number one cornerback on PFF, but no one else in the Packers secondary ranks in the top-40. If Green Bay makes some stops, then they could pick up a huge win in Tampa Bay.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday October 18, 8:20 PM ET The Rams head to San Francisco, taking on a struggle 49ers team. Los Angeles took care of business in Washington as the 49ers fell to Miami as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was benched. Despite the 49ers sitting in the NFC West's last place, this could be a nice buy-low spot on them. The Rams are on back to back road games this Sunday, which should favor the 49ers slightly. LA's offense is second in efficiency, while the San Fran defense is still top-10 despite losing Nick Bosa for the season. The biggest question will be whether or not the 49ers can move the football on Sunday. Garoppolo being benched could have been a message to the young quarterback that his job is no guarantee. He currently ranks 31st out of 34 qualified quarterbacks on PFF. The Rams secondary has been top-10 this season, but they have struggled to defend the run allowing 4.7 yards per carry. If the 49ers get things going on the ground, this could be the turning point the Niners need.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) @ Buffalo Bills

Monday October 19, 5:00 PM ET The Chiefs and Bills Thursday night matchup was moved to Monday night after the Bills were forced to play on Tuesday due to the Titans COVID-19 outbreak. Got that? Great, because there are going to be more situations like it this season. Kansas City was upset on Sunday by the Raiders at home while the Bills will play on Tuesday night. Kansas City will have an additional day to prep for Buffalo while the Bills will have fewer days thanks to scheduling. This should benefit the Chiefs as Andy Reid has been historically good with more than seven days of prep for a game. The Chiefs and Bills have two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs defense ranks in the top-5, while the Bills defensive efficiency sits at 22nd. This biggest issue with KC is its run defense as they cannot stop anyone on the ground. Fortunately, Buffalo has one of the worst rush offenses in the league averaging 3.7 yards per carry. The Bills defense is not as good as it was in 2019, so if the Chiefs can limit Josh Allen on Monday, Kansas City should take care of business.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Monday October 19, 8:15 PM ET The original Monday night showdown between the Cardinals and Cowboys is still on as planned. Arizona took care of business against the Jets while the Cowboys could knock off the Giants at home. However, they lost quarterback Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury ending his season. The Cardinals opened up as a 2.5-point favorite, which could be a slight overreaction to Prescott's injury. Despite Arizona sitting at 3-2, the offense and defense have been average this season. They also lost Chandler Jones for the season, which is a huge blow to the defense. Andy Dalton will take over at quarterback for the Cowboys, and should be able to fill in fine thanks to the loaded talent Dallas has on offense. However, Dallas cannot stop anyone on defense, so the Cowboys will most likely need Dalton to win a shootout over Kyler Murray, which is not ideal.

Bye Weeks

Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks