\r\nFamiliarity with the average points scored and allowed statistics for the teams in question is a key piece to gaining an edge on a totals offering. One tip for weighing previous point outputs both for and against a team is to be on the lookout for outlying numbers. If a total is significantly higher or lower than the other numbers, it should be considered an outlier and not weighted heavily (or at all) when handicapping future over/under plays.\r\n\r\n
Game Script
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As is the case with point spread or moneyline handicapping, it is necessary to distinguish an expected game script when considering over/under wagers. Teams with high-flying offenses could be running up and down the field and scoring points at will over four quarters. On the contrary, a stifling defense has the potential to dictate the course of an entire game. Placing over/under bets blindly is not advised. Spend time watching the teams in question for any insight you might be able to glean on how their games tend to unfold.\r\n\r\n
Matchup Strengths and Weaknesses
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Knowing how the teams in question matchup against one another is very important for over/under handicapping. Matchups should be considered at both the broad level of offense vs. defense and at the more specific level of individual player battles. For instance, a team might not be known for putting up a ton of points, but scoring could come easier in a game where their polished receivers and strong-armed quarterback will be going up against a banged-up and vulnerable secondary.\r\n\r\n
Coaches
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Believe it or not, studying the trends and decision-making of coaches is one of the most important parts of a sound over/under handicapping strategy. Oddsmakers know what they are doing when they create the lines on a game. With this in mind, it is fair to expect many games to finish right around the over/under. The decisions of coaches could be what ultimately sways the bet. An aggressive coach who isn’t afraid to go for it on fourth and short or take a shot at a 2-point conversion gives his team a greater chance of scoring more points than a passive coach who never considers going for 2 after a score and is content to settle for a field goal when a drive stalls. Being familiar with the tendencies of each coach in question has the potential to prove invaluable.\r\n\r\n
Fade the Public
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Fading the pubic and betting with a contrarian attitude is not a bad strategy in general. When it comes to over/under wagering, especially in the Super Bowl, there’s a lot to be said for going against the grain. The public will almost always be on the over of a game total. Everyone likes to see points scored. Recreational bettors who aren’t wagering with an opinion are prone to betting with their hearts. Just as a public bettor might back his/her team to win because they want it to happen, so to will they back the over on a game total. Heavy traffic in one direction can lead to inflated lines and provide even better value for those who choose to fade the public market.\r\n\r\n
Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends
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There is a long list of betting trends that have been recorded specifically for the Super Bowl. Among them are over/under trends. The only Super Bowl that is not a part of the data is Super Bowl I, as there was no total posted for the game between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs.\r\n\r\n
General handicapping knowledge states to never bet solely on the back of any trend. For those who might be tempted to do so anyway, there is a silver lining in that neither the over nor the under has gained any substantial edge when it comes to the Super Bowl. After 53 editions of the Big Game for which an over/under line was created, the over has hit 27 times and the under 26, an equal success rate for both sides.\r\n\r\n
The past 20 seasons have been a microcosm of the overall equal success rate for both the over and under in the Super Bowl. Each has cashed 10 times apiece over that span. In the last ten Super Bowls, the over has hit 6 times, while the under has cashed in each of the last two seasons (2019, 2020) and three of the last five. Refer to the images below for a look at how the points total played out in each Super Bowl.\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\nWhere can I find Super Bowl over/under odds?\r\n
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\r\n \tSuper Bowl over/under odds will be available at any sportsbook taking action on the NFL’s championship game. Once you decide on a book, the odds will be easy to find. Look for them to be listed right along with the moneyline and point spread odds for the game.\r\n
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\r\nWhen is the best time to wager on the Super Bowl over/under?\r\n
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\r\n \tWhile jumping on the opening line ensures that you get the purest form of the number, it may not yield the most value. With many people betting on the Super Bowl, there is a real chance that line movement could create a number with better value than the initial odds.\r\n
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\r\nHow do I determine whether to bet the Super Bowl over or under?\r\n
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\r\n \tRemember that you should never bet just to bet. A wager on the Super Bowl game total should only be made after conducting thorough research on the game, teams, and other relevant factors. Try to visualize in your mind how the game will play out when taking a betting position.\r\n
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\r\nCan a strong opinion on a Super Bowl over/under wager lead to more betting opportunities?\r\n
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\r\n \tYes! If you are confident in your over/under bet, there are bound to be other bets on the board to consider. The endless list of Super Bowl props allows a real opportunity to exploit a strong lean on the game in multiple ways.\r\n
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\r\nHow many times has the Super Bowl gone over?\r\n
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\r\n \tIn the 53 Super Bowls for which a points total line has been set, the game has gone over the total 27 times.\r\n
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\r\nWhat side holds the longest consecutive winning streak for Super Bowl over/under betting?\r\n
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\r\n \tThe over holds a one-game lead in the overall standings, but the under holds the longest winning streak in the Super Bowl points total battles. From 1969-1975, Super Bowls III-IX all went under the total, a run of 7 straight.\r\n
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The Rams won Super Bowl LVI and kept the Lombardi Trophy in Los Angeles as they became the second team to win a “home” Super Bowl after the Buccaneers did so last year. Super Bowl LVII is being played at State Farm Stadium - can Kyler Murray lead his Cardinals to the big game to become the third-straight NFC team to play in the big game in their home stadium? Can another team replicate the Bengals’ epic performance in making it to the Super Bowl after having such long preseason odds? We have you covered with updated Super Bowl LVII odds from several sportsbooks below. Be sure to check out our guide on how to bet on the Super Bowl.\r\n
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Super Bowl Odds Update
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Buffalo Bills: It’s rare to not see the defending champions open as Super Bowl favorites, but it makes sense for Buffalo to be priced here. The Bills’ defense, which was the NFL’s best during the regular season, will return All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White while further developing Gregory Rousseau, their first-round defensive end, as he enters his second season. Josh Allen will have to adjust to life without Brian Daboll, but his relationship with Ken Dorsey, new OC and former QBs coach will be a positive. The Bills have as much or more talent than anyone in the NFL and should be considered the team to beat in the AFC.
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Kansas City Chiefs: The team that eliminated the Bills from the postseason this year, as long as the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, will be in the top 3 for preseason Super Bowl odds every year. The Chiefs have about the same odds as the Bills on most sportsbooks, and if not for their bizarre second-half collapse against the Bengals, we may be talking about them as defending champions. Nonetheless, with something to prove this season and plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, the Chiefs will be a popular Super Bowl futures pick.
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Los Angeles Rams: The defending champions enter this offseason with plenty of unknowns. After providing a massive boost to the Super Bowl campaign, Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller become free agents. Aaron Donald has discussed retirement, which would be huge as he’s the best defensive player in football. Even Sean McVay has contemplated his future in the NFL. With Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp playing better than any QB-WR combo in football, this team deserves to be considered the favorite in the NFC until further notice, but keep an eye on offseason news for this group.
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San Francisco 49ers: This team is a great value pick at 14-1 odds as they were one win away from playing in the Super Bowl this year, and they have incredible talent on both sides with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner as the stand-outs. The Niners also have a clear path to boosting their upside depending on what they do at the quarterback position this offseason, as it’s clear Jimmy Garoppolo is not long for San Francisco. If they acquire a big-name veteran or if Trey Lance really hits the ground running, the Niners can easily become the team to beat in a weaker NFC.
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Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers continues to struggle to get it done in the playoffs, and now he might be gone from Green Bay. At the very least, the Packers will be integrating a new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Matt LaFleur is a solid head coach, but the playoff disappointments of the past two years can’t be overlooked. I’d wait to bet the Packers to win the Super Bowl until we know more about the respective situations of Rodgers and Davante Adams.
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Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense became a force this season with Micah Parsons playing outstanding ball as a rookie alongside DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory. Dan Quinn’s return will help the defense maintain a high level of play, but I have minimal confidence in Mike McCarthy after that penalty-laden fiasco against the 49ers. The Cowboys are as talented as any team in the NFC, particularly in the trenches, but they played soft in that playoff game, and I don’t trust them to elevate this year.
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Cincinnati Bengals: It’s rare to have the defending AFC Champion be seventh in Super Bowl odds, but they have an uphill climb this year. The AFC North should be much-improved, with the Ravens and Browns having much better injury luck, especially if the Steelers pick up a proven QB. Cincinnati’s offensive line needs serious work this offseason if Joe Burrow is going to stay healthy long enough to win a Super Bowl for this team.
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Los Angeles Chargers: Can Justin Herbert take the Year 3 leap and make the Chargers a serious contender? The AFC is loaded, especially if the Broncos land Aaron Rodgers, and Brandon Staley showed some warts as a head coach down the stretch. However, the Chargers’ roster has plenty of talent, and it’s time we see what Herbert is capable of on the playoff stage.
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Baltimore Ravens: Injuries across the board on defense derailed this past season for the Ravens, and they still narrowly missed out on a playoff berth. Lamar Jackson, he’s much more capable as a passer than most gave him credit for this year with the Ravens having their worst run game since he was drafted. With Mike McDaniel taking over as coordinator, the defense should return to being among the league’s best, as well.
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Denver Broncos: The Broncos likely wouldn’t have odds this short if there wasn’t the pervasive rumor that Aaron Rodgers might be joining his former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, the team’s new head coach. If Denver does land Rodgers, they will shoot up this list quickly. This team has drafted quite well with an impressive young nucleus, but they haven’t had the coaching to execute on that talent. Hackett could be the guy to get Denver back into the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50.
The United States legal online betting scene has jumped from just a few legal states this time last year, to now over 20 legalized states. Arizona, Wyoming, and Connecticut were three major states. New York, Ontario, and Louisiana are aiming to be up and running right in time for this year’s Super Bowl. If you are a new user and in one of the legalized states, you can click through the sportsbooks below to get a new user bonus for signing up. There will be plenty of Super Bowl Odds, offers, and props available.
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DraftKings - DraftKings Sportsbook is one of the top operators in the United States and brings both sports betting and fantasy to the table. Signing up is simple and new users can get up to a $1,000 deposit match + $50 free. New users also will be able to take advantage of any Super Bowl offers that they provide.
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BetMGM - You likely have heard of the MGM brand, as they are a major operator in the entertainment industry. BetMGM has up to a $1,000 risk-free bet to use for new users. That means you can deposit and place a bet up to $1,000 and if it loses, you will get that money back in the form of a bet. Use bonus code “LINEUPS”
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Caesars Sportsbook - After rebranding William Hill’s sportsbook as their own this past year, Caesars Sportsbook has jumped into one of the top operators. The strong platform and image have given the public another recognizable sportsbook to use. If you are not a Caesars Sportsbook member, they are matching your first bet up to $1,500. Like the prior bet match offers, this means you are able to get a bet up to the amount you place as long as it is $1,500 or under. Just use promo code “LINEUPS15”
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FanDuel - Another early operator that has made a push for being one of the tops in the country is FanDuel. New users will get up to a $1,000 free bet. The free bet will come in as a bonus to be used on another wager. FanDuel will have plenty of Super Bowl promos and boosts for the big game.
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BetRivers - Now in a handful of states, BetRivers is trying to establish themselves with the main betting operators. While they do not offer as large of a new user bonus, you can still take advantage of free money. They will match new users up to a $250 deposit. A free $250 sounds pretty good right around Super Bowl time.
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PointsBet - Backed by NBC, PointsBet has made a real push this year to be a notable sportsbook. They offer some unique ways to wager but also will give new users up to $2,000 in free bets. This can be used over two bets, which is different from other sportsbooks where they allow your free bet to be used just once. We recommend checking out PointsBet’s customizable betting features.
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FOX Bet - FOX Bet is giving up to a $500 risk-free bet for new users. All you need to do is opt-in and deposit, which will match your bet up to that amount. FOX Bet has come along within the last few years trying to break through as a major operator. Click through the link to get the best new user bonus.
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SugarHouse - SugarHouse is only available in a few states but are beginning to grow more and more. If you have yet to sign up for SugarHouse, new users can get a bet match up to $250. SugarHouse has a strong showing in New Jersey and has begun to expand to more states in 2021/22.
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BetFred - Coming over from the United Kingdom, they have entered the U.S. market. More and more states are beginning to offer BetFred. New users can take advantage of a $1,002 free bet match. If you are in Colorado, Iowa, or Pennsylvania, BetFred is available.
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Sports Ilustrated - The SI sportsbook has taken off this year and new users can get up to $300 in free bets by just placing a $10 bet. Win or lose, new users will then get $300 in free bets to continue using on the site. Currently, Colorado is the only place where you can use SI’s sportsbook.
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Unibet - Coming over from Europe, Unibet has made a splash in the American markets. They are available in multiple states, such as Arizona, New Jersey, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. New users can get a risk-free bet up to $500.Just use the bonus code “BETBONUS
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Bet365 - An England-based company has been well known in the industry for a while and the wave continues with U.K. based companies bringing their product over to the U.S. New users can enter the bonus code “LINEUPS” to get a 100% deposit match up to $500.
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Betting The Super Bowl Odds
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Once the big day is settled and we have our matchup of two teams, you are going to see odds for the point spread, moneyline, and total. These are considered the standard for sports betting, and is what you are going to find first among sports betting pages. Now the point spread is going to be a number that looks like, -7 or +7. The team that is sitting with -7 means that they are a touchdown favorite and would need to win by seven or more points for the bet to be considered a win. Now, if they win by three, then the bet is considered a loss. For the team that is +7, a winning bet would be them either winning or losing by less than seven points. If they lose by three, that means they covered the spread, and it is considered a win. The moneyline is going to be a straight-up win or lose, where you are getting odds on the underdog team and the favorite. The total can be broken down to either a team total or overall game total, which you would be betting on the over or under.
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You are also going to see player props once the teams have been finalized. You can find odds and bets on things like over/under 98.5 receiving yards for a specific player. For receivers, you can see total receptions and touchdowns, which have the option of an over/under bet. Running backs will have yardage, attempts, and touchdown props as well. Quarterbacks will have attempts, passing yards, touchdowns, completions, and interceptions thrown props tied to their name. Game props are going to be more general game events, and not player focused. You can bet on the first touchdown scorer, total touchdowns, longest touchdown, and other various game events. These are great ways for beginning betters to understand sports betting, and be able to simplify the research that goes into one player or event in comparison to a whole game. Now in most circumstances, you can’t parlay props within sportsbooks, unlike the other types of best. A parlay means you can stack bets on top of each other to increase your payout if both hit. Now, if you take the over on a game and the Chiefs winning by seven, the over has to hit in addition to the Chiefs winning by seven. If the Chiefs win by four and the over hits, then your parlay is a bust. Each bet is called a leg of a parlay bet.
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Super Bowl odds before the teams have been finalized is going to be considered a futures bet, meaning you are betting into the future on an event to take place. The most common is simply the Super Bowl winner. You will see odds for each team listed to win the Super Bowl in order of the most likely to do so based on the odds of the sportsbook. You can bet on the Kansas City Chiefs winning the Super Bowl in April, where you are more likely to get better odds. Every week during the season, odds are going to change based on what is happening in the NFL season. They will be adjusted for teams playing well or teams playing poorly, and injuries can also drive odds in the wrong direction.
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You are going to be able to get better value for your futures bet when you bet further out. The odds are going to look a lot different in the offseason compared to Week 12 when the Chiefs have lost two games and are currently the one seed. The odds will go more into their favor, and that means the bet won’t be as valuable because the sportsbooks have adjusted. Betting on future bets early is key to getting a healthy return on investment.
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Super Bowl 57 FAQ
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Find everything you need here for Super Bowl 57 and Super Bowl odds.
\r\n \tThe Super Bowl is an annual championship game of the National Football League. It is played between the winner of the AFC and the NFC, who play their conference championship games two weeks prior. The winner is crowned champion of the NFL. \r\n
\r\nSuper Bowl 57 will take place on February 12, 2023. The Super Bowl formerly took place on the first Sunday of February, but with the NFL’s new 18-week regular season, it now takes place on the second Sunday of the month.\r\n
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What Time And Channel Is The Super Bowl On?
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\r\n \tFox will be broadcasting Super Bowl LVII this season, as it rotates to a different network each year. The Super Bowl will kick off at 6:30 PM Eastern Time.\r\n\r\n
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Who Plays In The Super Bowl?
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\r\n \tThe winner of the NFC Conference Championship game and the AFC Conference Championship game will play in the Super Bowl. There will be a week off after the conference championship games to give teams a chance to rest and the Pro Bowl to be played. \r\n
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Can I Bet On The Super Bowl Legally?
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\r\n \tYes, if you are in these states: NY, NJ, PA, NH, PA, RI, WV, OR, IN,IA, NV, AR, DE, MS, NM, AZ. You can find various sportsbooks online to bet on Super Bowl 57. Some sites also offer mobile betting. \r\n
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What Team Has Won The Most Super Bowls?
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\r\n \tThe New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers both are tied with six Super Bowl wins. The Patriots have gone to the Super Bowl a league high 11 times. Pittsburgh has gone eight times, which is tied with Dallas and Denver for the second most. \r\n
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What Teams Have Never Won The Super Bowl?
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\r\n \tChargers, Panthers, Falcons, Bengals, Vikings, and Bills are the teams. Buffalo and Minnesota have gone to four Super Bowls too, as they have the most appearances without a win. \r\n
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What Is The Best Team To Win A Super Bowl?
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\r\n \tThe 1984 San Francisco 49ers went 15-1 in the regular season averaging 29.7 points per game and allowing just 14.2 points per game. They had five Hall of Famers on their team and beat the Dolphins 38-16 in the Super Bowl. \r\n
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How Many Super Bowls Have There Been?
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\r\n \tThere have been 56 total Super Bowls played in the history of the NFL. The first one was in 1967, and the last one played was in 2022. Super Bowl 57 will be the next one played in February of 2023. \r\n
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What Year Was The First Super Bowl?
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\r\nSuper Bowl I was on January 15th, 1967. It was between the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. It was the AFL vs NFL, as the Chiefs represented the AFL. Bart Starr was named MVP and the Packers won 35-30. \r\n
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Who Is Favored To Win Super Bowl 57?
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\r\n \tDespite neither team playing in Super Bowl 56, the Chiefs and Bills are currently listed as the favorites to win Super Bowl 57. The Rams are also among the favorites as they look to defend their Super Bowl 56 title.\r\n
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The Rams-Bengals Super Bowl has been set and the Super Bowl over under is sitting at 48.5 or nearby on most major sportsbooks. Both offenses bring a ton of star power to the table with Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase, and of course the two quarterbacks. However, the defenses have been a big part of their run and the under has been a popular outcome in Super Bowls of late, as six of the last ten have gone under. Looking at the two this season, the Rams over covered 52% of the time where the Bengals were only at a 40% clip. Keep tabs on all the Super Bowl over under movement leading up until the big game.
The Rams-Bengals Super Bowl has been set and the Super Bowl over under is sitting at 48.5 or nearby on most major sportsbooks. Both offenses bring a ton of star power to the table with Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase, and of course the two quarterbacks. However, the defenses have been a big part of their run and the under has been a popular outcome in Super Bowls of late, as six of the last ten have gone under. Looking at the two this season, the Rams over covered 52% of the time where the Bengals were only at a 40% clip. Keep tabs on all the Super Bowl over under movement leading up until the big game.
When it comes to sports betting, no single event garners more wagering action than the Super Bowl. The annual coronation of the National Football League’s champion is much more than just any old football game. Bettors have the opportunity to play an extensive list of proposition wagers that involve pregame festivities, the halftime entertainment, and of course the actual game itself. While the Super Bowl is known for prop bets, it is important not to lose sight of traditional football wagering options that are available for the Big Game as well. This includes over/under or points totals odds. This article examines Super Bowl Over/Under odds and intricacies such as how to read them, finding value among them, over/under trends from prior Super Bowls, and more.
Super Bowl 56 Over Under
Of the many ways you can place wagers on the Super Bowl, betting on the over/under is certainly an interesting one. Sportsbooks typically do an excellent job setting the points total amount for the game, and I’ll be fully upfront - my worst record during the regular season was in betting on the over/under. I went just 146-123-2 on over/unders during the regular season, barely landing at a profitable success rate of 53.6%.
Believe it or not, sportsbooks have historically done an excellent job of setting the points total in the Super Bowl. The first Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Packers did not have a set points total to be wagered on. Since that game, however, in 54 Super Bowls played, the total has gone over in 27 of them, and the total has gone under in... 27 of them.
Super Bowls have consistently trended up in terms of points scored as the NFL has shifted to more of an offensive league, and the six highest closing points totals (all over 54.5 points) have occurred in the last 15 years. Four of the previous five Super Bowls are among those six games.
However, scoring totals in the Super Bowl have stayed stagnant as the five most recent Super Bowls have had an average of 48.6 points per game. The first ten Super Bowls had just 31.3 points per game, but the next ten averaged 48.6 points per game, the same average as the five most recent games.
The last three Super Bowls have gone under by an average margin of 20.3 points, suggesting sportsbooks may have overreacted a bit to the increasing offensive production in the league. Of course, among those was the 13-3 snooze fest in Super Bowl LIII, in which the Patriots beat the Rams in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl of all time.
The closing total for that Rams-Patriots Super Bowl was 57.5 points, so the game went under by 41.5 points. It’s incredibly rare to see sportsbooks be that far off on a points total, especially in the most wagered-on game of the year. The Rams’ offense has improved considerably since that game, especially as Cooper Kupp is now healthy and playing at an MVP level. Matthew Stafford has provided a significant upgrade over Jared Goff.
The Rams are one of nine teams this season who have hit the over at a profitable rate - the points total has gone over the closing total in ten of their twenty games (with one push) for 52.6%. However, the Rams’ games have gone under the closing total by 0.6 points per game this year. The Bengals, meanwhile, have seen the under hit in eight of their twenty games, a success rate of 60%. Their games have gone over the closing total by 1.6 points per game.
Los Angeles’s three playoff games this year have seen an average of 46.3 points per game scored, while Cincinnati’s three postseason outings have had 43.6 points per game scored. The Bengals scored 27.1 points per game and allowed 22.1 points per game during the regular season, a total of 49.2 points per game. The Rams scored 27.1 points per game and allowed 21.9 points per game, a combined 49 points per game.
There’s reason to think the under is the better play as far as the matchup goes. The Rams’ pass rush can disrupt Joe Burrow all afternoon, and while he only took one sack against the Chiefs, I don’t expect that to be the case against Aaron Donald and Von Miller after the Titans got to him nine times in the divisional round. On the other side, the Bengals were shockingly good on defense in the second half against the Chiefs, and I don’t think either team gets to 30 points in this game.
As you can expect from the all-time Super Bowl record on over/unders, the line here is pretty sharp, and I wouldn’t say there’s a ton of value in betting it either way. These teams’ results from the regular season would push you towards a slight over, but their playoff games have been lower-scoring. I would lean towards a slight under on the total, with my projection landing between 45 and 48 points. There are likely better ways to get action on this game than betting on an incredibly sharp market.
Super Bowl Over/Under Odds 101
So just what are Super Bowl over/under odds? In sports betting, there are three primary ways to bet on a game. These include the moneyline (picking a team to win the game outright), point spread (picking a team to cover a points line set by the sportsbook), and over/unders. Over/under plays involve betting on whether or not the combined total score for the game will land over or under a set line. It is important to remember that this is not a single team’s total points for the game, but rather the combined total points scored by both teams.
Over/under bets are commonly referred to as totals bets thanks to the nature of the wager. Where totals wagers differ greatly from the moneyline and spread is that the outright winner of the game does not matter. A massive underdog can score an upset, or the market favorite can win convincingly. In either case, all an over/under wager is concerned with is the total amount of points scored in the game.
How to Read Super Bowl Over/Under Odds
The over/under odds for the game are found in the third column, to the right of the point spread odds. While it is necessary to look at the individual team lines to decipher the moneyline and point spread, notice that the over/under number remains the same on both lines. This makes sense given that it is a bet on the total combined points and not those of one individual team.
The set over/under line of 52.5 is the point total around which a wager is based. Like the point spread, standard over/under wagers carry a -110 price. As money comes in on one side or the other, sportsbooks might adjust the juice or even the over/under line itself to help maintain balance. For this reason, the number is listed twice, with the price for the over on top and the under on the bottom.
How Super Bowl Over/Under Odds Are Calculated
Given that the Super Bowl is the culmination of the entire NFL season, the two teams participating will already have played at least 18 games. While having a season’s worth of stats, data, and film can be helpful for bettors in deciphering where to fire on the Super Bowl, one must also remember that the oddsmakers also have access to those same resources. As a result, Super Bowl odds have the chance of being that much more accurate.
When calculating Super Bowl over/under odds, it is important to project how each team’s respective offense and defense will matchup up against the opponent’s. If a high-scoring offense finds itself facing off against the league’s top defense in the Super Bowl, there is a chance that points might not be as easy to come by. On the flip side, the offense could steal the show and the highly-rated defense may wind up surrendering far more points than was typical throughout the season sample size.
Looking back on each teams’ totals throughout the season can aid in calculating Super Bowl odds as well. While it’s impossible to project the future outcome ahead of time, tracking a team’s total points in games across a season, as well as how they fared against the over/under betting market all season can yield vital information.
Finally, the injury status of individual players can play a role. With the Super Bowl coming at the very end of the season, most teams are likely to have a full complement of players, minus those who suffered some sort of season-ending injury. The presence or absence of a few key stars in the lineup can alter the outlook on the number of points a team figures to score or allow.
Finding Value in Super Bowl Over/Under Odds
The process of searching for value amongst Super Bowl over/under odds should not look much different from that used throughout the NFL season. Staying the course, trusting your research, and carefully noting line movement are all key to over/under betting. Refer to the image below for a checklist of things to consider when attempting to find betting value. Each item on the list is discussed briefly in the subsections that follow.
Team Points Scored and Allowed
Familiarity with the average points scored and allowed statistics for the teams in question is a key piece to gaining an edge on a totals offering. One tip for weighing previous point outputs both for and against a team is to be on the lookout for outlying numbers. If a total is significantly higher or lower than the other numbers, it should be considered an outlier and not weighted heavily (or at all) when handicapping future over/under plays.
Game Script
As is the case with point spread or moneyline handicapping, it is necessary to distinguish an expected game script when considering over/under wagers. Teams with high-flying offenses could be running up and down the field and scoring points at will over four quarters. On the contrary, a stifling defense has the potential to dictate the course of an entire game. Placing over/under bets blindly is not advised. Spend time watching the teams in question for any insight you might be able to glean on how their games tend to unfold.
Matchup Strengths and Weaknesses
Knowing how the teams in question matchup against one another is very important for over/under handicapping. Matchups should be considered at both the broad level of offense vs. defense and at the more specific level of individual player battles. For instance, a team might not be known for putting up a ton of points, but scoring could come easier in a game where their polished receivers and strong-armed quarterback will be going up against a banged-up and vulnerable secondary.
Coaches
Believe it or not, studying the trends and decision-making of coaches is one of the most important parts of a sound over/under handicapping strategy. Oddsmakers know what they are doing when they create the lines on a game. With this in mind, it is fair to expect many games to finish right around the over/under. The decisions of coaches could be what ultimately sways the bet. An aggressive coach who isn’t afraid to go for it on fourth and short or take a shot at a 2-point conversion gives his team a greater chance of scoring more points than a passive coach who never considers going for 2 after a score and is content to settle for a field goal when a drive stalls. Being familiar with the tendencies of each coach in question has the potential to prove invaluable.
Fade the Public
Fading the pubic and betting with a contrarian attitude is not a bad strategy in general. When it comes to over/under wagering, especially in the Super Bowl, there’s a lot to be said for going against the grain. The public will almost always be on the over of a game total. Everyone likes to see points scored. Recreational bettors who aren’t wagering with an opinion are prone to betting with their hearts. Just as a public bettor might back his/her team to win because they want it to happen, so to will they back the over on a game total. Heavy traffic in one direction can lead to inflated lines and provide even better value for those who choose to fade the public market.
Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends
There is a long list of betting trends that have been recorded specifically for the Super Bowl. Among them are over/under trends. The only Super Bowl that is not a part of the data is Super Bowl I, as there was no total posted for the game between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs.
General handicapping knowledge states to never bet solely on the back of any trend. For those who might be tempted to do so anyway, there is a silver lining in that neither the over nor the under has gained any substantial edge when it comes to the Super Bowl. After 53 editions of the Big Game for which an over/under line was created, the over has hit 27 times and the under 26, an equal success rate for both sides.
The past 20 seasons have been a microcosm of the overall equal success rate for both the over and under in the Super Bowl. Each has cashed 10 times apiece over that span. In the last ten Super Bowls, the over has hit 6 times, while the under has cashed in each of the last two seasons (2019, 2020) and three of the last five. Refer to the images below for a look at how the points total played out in each Super Bowl.
Super Bowl over/under odds will be available at any sportsbook taking action on the NFL’s championship game. Once you decide on a book, the odds will be easy to find. Look for them to be listed right along with the moneyline and point spread odds for the game.
When is the best time to wager on the Super Bowl over/under?
While jumping on the opening line ensures that you get the purest form of the number, it may not yield the most value. With many people betting on the Super Bowl, there is a real chance that line movement could create a number with better value than the initial odds.
How do I determine whether to bet the Super Bowl over or under?
Remember that you should never bet just to bet. A wager on the Super Bowl game total should only be made after conducting thorough research on the game, teams, and other relevant factors. Try to visualize in your mind how the game will play out when taking a betting position.
Can a strong opinion on a Super Bowl over/under wager lead to more betting opportunities?
Yes! If you are confident in your over/under bet, there are bound to be other bets on the board to consider. The endless list of Super Bowl props allows a real opportunity to exploit a strong lean on the game in multiple ways.
How many times has the Super Bowl gone over?
In the 53 Super Bowls for which a points total line has been set, the game has gone over the total 27 times.
What side holds the longest consecutive winning streak for Super Bowl over/under betting?
The over holds a one-game lead in the overall standings, but the under holds the longest winning streak in the Super Bowl points total battles. From 1969-1975, Super Bowls III-IX all went under the total, a run of 7 straight.