Fantasy football may be the most popular game in the country right now, which means the competition in your daily and season-long leagues is going to be extremely fierce. The only way to truly get a leg up on your opponents is by having a source of consistent and reliable fantasy football projections. These projections will be done for every game of the season, and they will give you an idea of what type of performance you can expect from every player. It is extremely important to use some type of projection service when playing fantasy football because you are basically playing a difficult guessing game without them. No matter how many NFL games you watch, it is impossible to know detailed information pertaining to every player and team in the league. Since NFL fantasy projections are done using expert analysis and data science, you do not have to worry about following every small detail of the league. The projections are simply going to be more accurate than anything you try to create on your own. Every successful fantasy football player in the world is using weekly projections, so you need to add them to your repertoire if you truly want a chance to win.
A lot of important information is used to create the NFL fantasy projections on a daily basis including recent performances, historic data, injuries, weather and opposing matchups. This data is then used to create an accurate projection of every player's performance in their upcoming game. NFL fantasy projections can be wildly different from week to week because football is such a matchup dependent game.
A talented wide receiver is going to have a much harder time finding a way to score points when playing against the best cornerback in the league than he would against a poor defense. The same can be said for the other skill positions on a fantasy football team. The expected outcome of the real game also has a big influence on the fantasy projections. A running back is going to have a hard time scoring a lot of fantasy points if his team is expected to lose the game in a blowout. Since his team will likely spend most of the game passing in attempt to score quickly, that does not bode well for the running back.
You may look at our NFL fantasy projections and think that they are too low for most players, but that is common with projections. The goal is to provide a projected point total that is closer to their average or within reasonable standard deviations of the mean. Outlier projection totals can’t be relied upon and for this reason, you won’t see outrageous projection numbers. While it is certainly possible for the top quarterback in the league to throw for six touchdowns, the projections will never expect this type of performance. Those high-scoring games only happen a few times a year, so they are extreme outliers. The goal is to have all of projected fantasy point totals to be within one or two standard deviations of the mean. This results in slightly lower projected scoring totals, but that will actually help your fantasy football team win on a consistent basis.
If you want to get the most out of our proprietary fantasy football projections, then you need to use them differently for your daily and season-long leagues. Since you have a relatively set roster in a season-long league, you are only concerned with the projections of a small amount of players. All you have to do is look at your roster and start the players that are projected to score the most points. You may also want to look at a few of the top players on the waiver wire to make sure they are not projected for a better game than someone on your roster.
The process is a lot more intricate for daily fantasy football leagues. Since you have a finite amount of money to spend on your roster every week, it is all about getting the most value with your lineup. The salary of every player must be considered with their fantasy points to determine the best value plays. A tight end projected to score 15 points with a $5,000 salary is not going to be a better option than a player at the same position projected to score 14 points with only a $3,000 salary. Getting the most out of your limited salary pool is the only way to win a daily fantasy football league. To make things easier, we list the DraftKings and FanDuel salaries of every player right next to their projected point total.
While it is going to be easy to find great value for your daily fantasy league using our projections, you do not want to create a lineup filled with all value plays. The goal is still to score more fantasy points than your opponents. The only way to do this is by spending all of your allotted salary cap. The expensive players may not provide the same value as the cheaper players, but they will also likely score more points. Balancing your roster is the only way to create a high scoring daily fantasy lineup.
The final consideration when using our NFL fantasy projections is the consistency of the players. Two wide receivers can be projected to score the same amount of points despite being completely different players. Deep-threat receivers have high ceilings because they can catch a long touchdown at any time, but they also tend to struggle with consistency. Possession receivers are extremely consistent players because they catch a lot of passes. They also tend to have lower ceilings because they do not score a lot of touchdowns.
The exact way to value consistency will ultimately be determined based on the fantasy football game you are playing. High-ceiling players are more valuable when playing in big daily fantasy tournaments because they give you a chance to win the top prize. You may also want to stick a few high-ceiling players in your season-long lineup if you are projected to be a big underdog. It is best to stick to high-floor players in 50-50 daily leagues because you only have to beat half of your opponents to win money. These consistent players are also great when you are a big favorite in your season-long league.