NFL Strength of Schedule 2022

Strength of Schedule Analysis

My favorite win total bets based on Strength of Schedule:

Indianapolis Colts - over 8.5 wins: The Colts have the most manageable schedule in football based on projected win totals. They also had an incredible offseason, bringing in Philip Rivers at quarterback who should be an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett as the former Chargers’ QB is reunited with Frank Reich. The Colts also acquired DeForest Buckner, who should shore up their front seven alongside Justin Houston and Darius Leonard. I also love this team’s draft class with Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, and Julian Blackmon, all profiling as instant-impact players. The Colts were blindsided by Andrew Luck’s retirement just before the start of last season and finished with 7 wins despite the off-field tumult. Frank Reich is an underrated NFL head coach, and this roster has very few holes.

I expect the Texans and Titans to regress this year, and the Jaguars are in the midst of a major rebuilding project, so the AFC South is there for the Colts’ taking. Indianapolis will also take on the NFC North, which is at best the third-best division in the NFC after the NFC South and NFC West. They will also play the AFC North, which had three teams at 8-8 or worse last year. I have the Colts down for 10 wins, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they get to 11 or 12 with their schedule.

Baltimore Ravens - over 11.5 wins: You might be hesitant to bet the over on the Ravens after their inglorious playoff exit at the hands of the Titans, but this is still one of the best rosters top-to-bottom in football. The loss of Marshal Yanda from the offensive line can’t be overstated. Still, the defense also figures to be massively improved with the additions of Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe in free agency as well as Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison in the draft. Five weeks into the season last year, the Ravens were allowing a tad under 25 points a game, but they saw massive improvement with the midseason acquisition of Marcus Peters. Peters, Marlon Humphery, Jimmy Smith, Chuck Clark, and Earl Thomas already gave the Ravens an elite secondary. Queen, Campbell, and Wolfe will join Tyus Bowser and Matthew Judon in a very talented front seven. The run game may not be as dominant without Yanda, but Marquise Goodwin and Mark Andrews are in their second seasons, and rookie Devin Duvernay will help take the top off the defense to open up space underneath. Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic weapons in football, and there’s plenty of talent on both sides of the ball for this team to repeat as one of the best regular-season squads.

I find it hard to believe that the Ravens finish with more than one or two losses in their division - they went 5-1 against the Steelers, Browns, and Bengals last year. It’s also very possible that the Ravens sweep the NFC East, a division that didn’t produce a single double-digit-win team last season. Finally, the Ravens play the AFC South who’s leader is expected wins sits at 8.5 (tied between Colts and Titans). I have the Ravens down for a 13-3 record this year, but I’m relatively comfortable in putting action on 12+ wins for this team.

Detroit Lions - over 6.5 wins: After a 3-12-1 season, you’re likely not expecting much from the Lions this season. However, I believe there’s reason to think Detroit could challenge for the NFC North title. Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Lions were 3-4-1 despite playing four eventual playoff teams. Their four losses in that stretch came by an average of 5.5 points, as well. Then, Matthew Stafford fractured muscles in his back and was kept out of the remainder of the year. Before his injury, Stafford had set a 16-game pace of just under 5,000 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in an offense that offered plenty of talent among Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson. D’Andre Swift now joins the crew to take some pressure off Kerryon Johnson, so there’s reason to believe their run game could be much better this year. Hockenson should also produce much better stats in his sophomore season. Finally, the Lions could have as many as nine new defensive starters among draft picks Jeff Okudah and Julian Okwara as well as free-agent signings Jamie Collins, Duron Harmon, Jayron Kearse, Miles Killebrew, Reggie Ragland, Desmond Trufant, and Danny Shelton. Stafford is one of my favorite picks for comeback player of the year this season.

I like the Lions’ chances at winning the NFC North as much as any other team in their division. The fact that they play the 7th-easiest schedule is just the cherry on top. The Lions finished last in the NFC North last year, which means they play the Cardinals, Redskins, and Panthers. In the AFC, they play the Colts, Texans, Titans, and Jaguars in the AFC South - that’s four winnable games. Outside of a couple of games against the Saints and Buccaneers, the Lions don’t play any team projected for double-digit wins this year. I’m projecting this team for around 8 or 9 wins, but that number could be even higher depending on how they fare in-division.

Atlanta Falcons - under 7.5 wins:

The Falcons quietly had a pretty terrible offseason. Of course, Tom Brady coming to your division, is never a great way to start the summer. However, the Falcons also lost several defensive starters - Adrian Clayborn, De’Vondre Campbell, Vic Beasley, Desmond Trufant, and Jonathan Cyprien - from a unit that wasn’t very good, to begin with (23rd in points against in 2019). I thought A.J. Terrell was an absolute panic reach in the first round to cope with that lost defensive talent. While Todd Gurley is a big name who will help sell merchandise and tickets, he’s not going to make a significant impact on the Falcons’ ability to win games. The offensive line has been terrible for the past several years, and nothing major was done to rectify that over the offseason. Matt Ryan is pretty underrated; Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley give him an elite receiving duo to work with. This team has all the makings of an elite squad for fantasy but a lousy team in real life. They won 7 games last year and may be even worse on paper this season.

The Falcons’ schedule is also doing them no favors heading into this season. It’s easy to see why they have the toughest schedule in football - for starters, and they have to play the Saints and Buccaneers each twice, which may just be four losses right off the bat. They also may only split with the Panthers, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Falcons come away from their division with a 1-5 record. The Falcons also have to play the AFC West - the Chiefs are projected at 11.5 wins while the Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers are all projected at 7.5 wins. The NFC North has four teams who could make a reasonable run at the playoffs, and the Falcons’ schedule wraps up with the Seahawks and Cowboys who fancy themselves Super Bowl contenders. Atlanta has an uphill battle to get to .500, let alone even reach their 7-9 record from last season.

SOS FAQ

• 1. How does the NFL build out its schedules?

• 2. How does the NFL determine who each team’s opponents are?

• 3. Which divisions will play each other in 2020?

• 4. What is Strength of Schedule (SOS)?

• 5. How is Strength of Schedule calculated?

• 6. How to Use Strength of Schedule for Fantasy?

• 7. Should Strength of Schedule impact fantasy draft decisions?

• 8. When will strength of schedule become more valuable for fantasy football?

• 9. Do bad teams the previous year have easier schedules?

• 10. Who has the most difficult schedule in 2020 based on 2019 win totals?

• 11. Who has the most difficult schedule in 2020 based on projected win totals for this season?

• 12. Who has the easiest schedule in 2020 based on 2019 win totals?

• 13. Who has the easiest schedule in 2020 based on projected win totals for this season?

• 14. How has COVID-19 impacted the schedule this year?

• 15. What team in each NFL division has the easiest schedule this year?